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Trump closes the Republican National Convention

Our CEO and founder Tony Nash joins the BBC for Business Matters podcast where they discussed Trump’s speech in the Republican National Convention, the 2020 US Presidential Election, TikTok’s 90-day deadline for its US operations, Hurricane Laura, the future of work with thermal scanners, etc., and a company where you can book celebrities to record messages for you or loved ones.

 

This podcast was published on August 28, 2020 and the original source can be found at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x18wyjn7kj1

 

BBC Business Matters Description:

Donald Trump accepts the presidential nomination in a speech live from the White House. This hasn’t been entirely well received – with critics arguing using federal property for a campaign speech is unethical.

 

Walmart joins Microsoft in bid for TikTok’s US operations. TikTok has been given 90 days to sell its US arm to an American firm or face a ban in the country. Donald Trump has alleged it shares its user data with Beijing – claims it denies. Earlier on Thursday the firm’s boss resigned ahead of the impending ban.

 

Also in the programme, we look at the Federal Reserve’s new plan to revolutionise how it sets policy, including interest rates.The bank will now let inflation rise to allow the economy to produce more jobs.

 

Plus, what future do New York offices have post-pandemic?

 

And we hear from the boss of Cameo, a company through which you can book actors, musicians and sports stars to record a message for you or your loved ones.

 

Show Notes

 

ST: Who do you think President Trump will be trying to appeal to tonight? I mean new voters or do you think he’ll be going for his base? What do you think?

 

TN: He’s obviously going for his base. I’m really confused by what your guest said I’m not actually sure if she’s watched the convention but I think he’s really going after his base and I think what he’s also going after is independent voters.

 

There was a poll out yesterday from Rasmussen, who’s the only pollster who got the 2016 election right. And it shows Biden leading Trump by one point. So there was a 10 point spread in early July with Biden leading. According to Rasmussen, Biden is only leading by one point at the moment. It’s a really interesting convention in terms of you had people like Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, a guy named Maximo Alvarez who’s a Cuban immigrant.

 

It’s a really interesting invention in terms of how people are looking at the future and how people are really wondering what American values are. I think that’s what is under discussion right now and what’s being presented is a dramatic contrast around really civil unrest. And by civil unrest I mean riots in cities versus
what American values are. And I think they’re putting that out for debate, hoping that Joe Biden will actually
debate Donald Trump during the election season, so they can talk about these issues face to face.

 

ST: Well that’s not an under debate is it? I mean that will be going ahead? The issue…

 

TN: Oh no. There are people who are recommending that Joe Biden doesn’t. Hillary Clinton was out. A number of US senators and congress people were out, saying, that Joe Biden should not debate Donald Trump and that would be an incredible disservice to the American people.

 

ST: Let’s look at one of the other points that our guests brought up. The incumbent would normally want to be promoting a sort of really optimistic and positive view of the country. That is incredibly difficult to do when you are in the middle of a pandemic.

 

TN: If you look at the number of tests. If you look at how things are going. If you look at even in New York. Today was the first day that there were zero deaths. So even in New York, you can’t necessarily argue that things are not getting better. But in watching the convention. I’m a political nerd. So, I watch these things. I think the democrat convention was really negative. The republican convention, the speeches that I’ve seen have been very, very positive and very, very encouraging. So, I think there really is a contrast between those two.

 

ST: Do you think, Tony would you agree with that because there’ll be people who would characterize bike dance in a very different way in the States.

 

TN: Yeah, to be honest I don’t think many people in the US are thinking about that. I definitely understand the Chinese perspective but I think if you look at from the buyer’s perspective. Doug Mcmillan at Walmart very smart. Sachin Nadella at Microsoft very smart. What does Microsoft get out of it? They get an ad network and they can compete with Google for a very innovative ad driven product. What does Walmart get out of it? They compete with Amazon and they can get a very interesting demographic for shopping and keep them as they grow. So, I think from the buyers perspective, it would be very interesting. In terms of the price, look these things come and go. I think, they’re not going to buy it for a song. They’re going to buy it for real money.

 

People in China are going to be enriched from this and it’s not as if you can transition that technology from China to the US in 90 days. There’s going to be a transition period. There’s just going to have to be oversight from the US side in terms of security and other things. So, I understand that China feels that way. China has a history of a lot of problems. I was in Asia for 15 years. I saw firsthand a lot of what Chinese have
done on the tech side. There are sins on both sides. So nobody is innocent here.

 

ST: I just wonder whether you could give us an update on Hurricane Laura because you’re there in Texas and I understand you have avoided sort of the worst of it. I think the phrase from the governor was dodged a bullet but I mean, no less there has been damage.

 

TN: I wanted a hurricane and I didn’t get one. It went to Louisiana instead. I’m trying to make the best of it but we expected it’ll hit us about 1 AM and we had clear skies all night. So, it is a serious hurricane. There is serious damage. In Houston, we went through this three years ago with Hurricane Harvey. We lived through that. We saw the wreckage and it’s pretty awful actually. What will happen is, we’ll see this in the news for the next few days.

 

But when you have standing water in homes for more than say 48 or 72 hours, the entire home needs to be gutted because of the mold and because of all the problems that come as a result of being flooded. So these poor people who are in the path of this, they are going to have to be dealing with this for weeks. They’re going to be volunteer crews that go out to these homes to tear up the inside of their homes and help these guys just find a place to live.

 

ST: Indeed, it’s not just the initial impact that we see and hear about so often. It’s the ongoing impact as well isn’t it?

 

Tony, let’s ask you about the big cities within Texas. We heard about New York from Samira but what sort of
impact has been seen in places like Austin or Houston or Dallas?

 

TN: We have two offices in Texas. One is in Houston, one is in Dallas. I think, the one that’s been the most stark is in is in Dallas. And we have an office in downtown and don’t forget we had the protests that were very aggressive in Dallas, as well. That really pushed a lot of people out of central cities mid-summer. It wasn’t just COVID, it was also the unrest in cities. Our team would largely go into the office. They had the optionality to stay home, too. Some of them stayed home but we’ve kept our offices open as long as the local authorities would allow us to do that.

 

ST: Let’s talk about the technology that Samira was finding out about in her report and the the temperature sensors, but some of the technology that would mean that you could walk into as an employee, you could walk into a building, you wouldn’t physically have to touch anything until you actually go to your office desk or whatever. Do you think as people we’re becoming more accustomed, now, because of this? We’ve had to become more accustomed to quite sort of invasive surveillance technology many people would see this?

 

TN: When I lived in Asia, I think, we had five or six pandemics. So, temperature scanners and these sorts of things in public spaces are just normal, you just get used to it even when there’s not a pandemic. So, I think in the US and in Europe, if that sort of stuff is to become the norm I really don’t think it’s that big of a deal. I think, it’s something that people will get used to and they’ll be quite comfortable with it.

 

ST: Is interesting because both of you obviously have the experience that you have but i’m speaking from someone who lives in London. I’m obviously still working from home but I have been back into the office and the temperature scanner there does feel alien. Simply because it is something which we are not used to. I wonder though if I’ve been in the office or going into the office every day, that by now actually I would just breeze through it and wouldn’t even give it a second thought. It is interesting how people are adjusting and adapting to so many different things in the world of work and actually our offices and our city centers go the same way. Tony?

 

TN: If you go through airports a few hundred times with temperature scanners on it like people in Asia do, you just get used to it and I have a feeling that will be more and more common.

 

ST: We will have to see how it progresses. And indeed, how the world of work changes in many other ways. Possibly some that we haven’t even anticipated as well.

 

Let’s just imagine for a moment. It’s your birthday or you get a promotion or you get engaged, maybe. Who would you like to get a congratulatory video from not just your mum or your best friend but perhaps your favorite celebrity? Well that is what a business called Cameo offers actors musicians sports stars they would record a message for you of course, for a fee. One, can you know, access celebrities if you make someone a celebrity you shouldn’t have access to them or is this just a bit, I don’t know. What do you reckon tony? Would you be up for this for your next birthday? Pick your favorite celebrity.

 

TN: Of course, I would love a happy birthday message from Samuel Jackson, why not, right? So look, people want it, they want to pay for it, celebrities want the money. So, no harm done. I think it’s a great idea.

 

ST: I’m actually, I’m on the website now I was having having whether or not i could find Samuel Jackson in this amount of time. I couldn’t be sure but I have to say, I don’t know whether you both are thinking that this could cost thousands but this is how can i put this? Office whip round birthday money territory. This is sort of attainable for uh the whip round for getting your colleague a present. As technology changes Tony, these sorts of things there’s always going to be a market and this could be someone who’s going to exploit this idea. That actually, you can get a celebrity to do this particularly in downtime with Coronavirus.

 

TN: You can, but I think there’s a window on this because technology could have something like a film that looks like Samuel Jackson, saying happy birthday to me within a few years. I mean, that’s available now but probably widely available any time. So, I think there’s a window on this of maybe five years or something until technology really fills the gap on it.

 

ST: Surely you’d know, surely you’d be able to know that Samuel Jackson. We are out of time on the program today but huge thanks to my guest James Mega, China editor economy at Bloomberg. Tony Nash who’s in Houston, Texas and thank you for listening this is Business Matters on the BBC World Service.

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Podcasts

US economy suffers sharpest contraction in decades

Tony Nash joins the BBC Business Matters to discuss the US economy contraction, Federal government’s cash subsidy, the upcoming US election and Trump’s issue on postal ballots, lithium batteries and electric vehicles, and Eid al-Adha.

 

This podcast first and originally appeared in BBC Business Matters at  https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x18vhgd3z2p

 

BBC Notes

Official data shows that the world’s biggest economy contracted by 9.5% in three months. That’s worse than at any point since the US government started keeping quarterly records in 1947. We hear from Professor Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. Black Lives Matter protests have added to a continuing backlash against brands selling skin-whitening creams in South Asia; Nikhil Inamdar reports from Mumbai on an industry under threat. We talk to listener, Elizabeth Pendleton, in Colorado Springs about the unemployment picture in Colorado. The BBC’s Ed Butler reports on the world’s biggest lithium deposit; it’s in Bolivia and is worth billions of dollars to a world scrambling to reduce its reliance on carbon. Plus, we’re joined throughout the programme by Tony Nash, co-founder and Chief Economist at Complete Intelligence in Houston, Texas and from Lahore in Pakistan, Mehmal Safraz, co-founder of The Current PK.

 

Show Notes

 

BBC: Talk about Houston for us.

 

TN: Just on my block, I have 6 houses for sale. If that tells you anything about the oil and gas down turn as a result of COVID, we really are starting to see some action on the real estate side. It is a seasonal thing partly because of summer. But we are the epicenter of epicenter of oil and gas. And the oil and gas went to receptical in May. We’re still seeing the after-shock of that even though we’re back above $40 for WTI and Brent. Something interesting is that I’m speaking recently with somebody from Panama Canal today and they were telling me about the volume in trade and what they’ve seen. They’ve reflected what Samara said and that things kept slowing down until June and then in July, they’ve started to come back. I really thought that April and May was the worst of it, but things kept declining into June, which was really difficult.

 

BBC: And that shipping, of course, is a crucial indicator, because we can track not just what China is doing, what US is doing. We can follow everybody’s trade globally by watching those boats.

 

TN: That’s right. And this is not a market failure. This was governments pulling the plug on economies and we say that personal consumption fell by 25% in the first quarter. But it’s no surprise because nobody can get out of their house because restaurants were closed, etc. On one hand these are shocking numbers, but on the other hand they are not shocking numbers when states and local governments pull hte plug on economies and people cannot get out, then this really isn’t a surprise. To be honest, I’m surprised that more data isn’t as bad or worse than the US because there were harsher lockdowns in a lot of other countries. I don’t understand it on some level.

 

BBC: In Houston, are we rising predictably to debate as the president proposes another idea by tweet?

 

TN: It’s more about his objection to postal ballots than it is about election day because there is a recent study done by CBS News in the US looking at potential fraud around election ballots and they found that something like 3% of them didn’t even arrive to the person and then fraudelent ballots that looked like what they’ve sent out, could have been sent similarly. I think what Trump is doing is trying to get the discussion going about fraud around postal ballots more than moving the election.

 

BBC: Has it always been a relatively tiny minority voting by post apart from those early voting?

 

TN: Well he said, and he said this several times. He doesn’t have an issue with what’s called absentee balloting, which is a slightly different process. But with mass postal balloting, there are several states like Oregon that do mass postal balloting. But fraud in US elections has become a very big concern. In the last election, ballots were found in the back of people’s cars. There was a rental car that was returned with ballots in it. Fraud in US elections has become a very big concern and I think Trump is voicing that concern a lot of people.

 

BBC: In Texas, dig into the nitty gritty of the state level.

 

TN: What ends tomorrow in the US is Americans are getting $600 a week additional from the Federal government on top of the state funds, unemployment funds, that they get, which are lower, like $350 a week. The $600 a week is extraordinary. I know people who don’t even make that much money when they are working fulltime, who are getting $600 a week. But at the local level, the problem is, you have the state and local governments who are closing things down. But it’s actually the Feds who have had to pay more money and it’s a lot of money to help make up for the economic decisions that were made at the state and local level. This is really where, through the whole COVID thing, and I said this many, many times to people, the state and local governments don’t have the resources to pay back for the decisions taht they’ve made. The decisions are made at the lower level. But it’s really only the Fed who has the money to provide this level of income to allow the economy to keep moving forward.

 

TN: Obviously, the environment is a big concern. But I think the payoff is also a big concern. It really all depends on how quickly the battery industry grows. If the payback isn’t there, it’s like looking at the Tarzans in Canada. Relatively expensive way to pull up oil, but oil now is too cheap for the Tarzans to function. If they pull it out in a very expensive way, the question really is not just environmental sustainability but economic sustainability as well.

 

BBC: I take your point on the environment, but compared to some of the alternatives. What I thought I knew in places like the Democratic Republic of Congo had the lithium mines, which is the other resource to be tapped, leading to headlines a couple of years ago in Financial Times, “Congo child labor in you electric car”, makes up that whole sector really problematic.

 

TN: Absolutely. Look, if it’s a better way, it’s great. I mean, the problem then is the supply chains and figuring out how to get it to market, which those are never easy. But if it’s a better way, more humane, then great.

 

BBC: Were you surprised by the little footnote in the report that it’s China that has the downstream value chain sewn up.

 

TN: No, not at all. China has a very high profile electric car program. And really a lot of subsidies for electric vehicles. So that actually doesn’t surprise me at all. It is the largest market.

 

BBC: And this is why the developments happen, right? Because I read recently, I probably get the numbers slightly wrong, but it said there’s a new battery coming that can run something like a million miles over 16 years instead of a couple of hundred thousand miles in 5 years.

 

TN: Yeah. But people will get bored by their car by then. People want to sell their car after a couple hundred thousand miles. If it can change hands multiple times, great.

 

BBC: This is something not widely celebrated in the US, but certainly a lot of Muslims in the US will bring this extremely to heart today.

 

TN: Absolutely. And Houston is the most diverse city in the US, so we’ve got a very large Moslem population in Houston. I have friends in Austin who are celebrating, so it’s definitely all around here.

Categories
Podcasts

Top UK adviser refuses to quit for lockdown breaches

Our CEO and founder Tony Nash joins the Business Matters for an hour of discussion on Dominic Cumming, recent headlines in the USA, people in restaurants, government stimulus, opportunities in the pandemic, how careers and schools have changed, and what sorts of things are they buying online?

 

A related QuickHit episode, which you can watch here: We’re not going to normalize.

 

BBC’s description:

We talk to the BBC’s Politics Correspondent, Rob Watson about what Dominic Cummings’ future may hold. With our special guests Sushma Ramachandran, of the Tribune in Delhi, and Tony Nash, of Complete Intelligence in Houston, Texas, we talk about how India and parts of the United States are easing their lockdowns. We also look at how many people are looking to change careers, whether forced to or not.

 

Listen to the Business Matters podcast on BBC.

 

Show Notes

 

BBC: What do you feel about Dominic Cummings, especially in Texas or the USA?

 

TN: I don’t think anybody is surprised by this, that politicians have one rule for themselves and another one for everyone else.  Britain is not exceptional. What it shows is that we actually have a vibrant media that will report on this. That is the positive thing coming out of this. Every country has a politician that breaks the rules, but not every media in every country is brave enough to report it.

 

BBC: What are the headlines in the USA? What’s grabbing people’s attention?

 

TN: It’s an ongoing news cycle of trying to shame the states that open up. It’s really tiring, quite frankly.

 

BBC: When you say “shaming,” who do you refer to? I thought they all went up?

 

TN: They are planning to. But the early states when there’s an outbreak, there’s a very huffy approach to pointing to places like Texas, where I live, and saying that we’ve done it wrong, and saying that places with extended quarantine have done it right. Although, the incident rates in places like Texas are lower than in other places like New York or California. What’s really hitting in the media here is really trying to shame states, which are pretty much the southern states that are opening up first. There’s a stereotype that southerners are just stupid. And so it plays into this coastal narrative that southerners don’t know what they’re doing. Although the incidence in these states is lower than the coastal states.

 

BBC: What about the businesses that are opening up again? The restaurants, and staffing? Are there people around?

 

TN: It was a long holiday here, and I just took a short trip. The hotel I went to in, the restaurants I went to, said that they are understaffed. And although you see a number of 25-30 million people unemployed in the U.S., what these business owners have been telling me is that they cannot get the staff to come back because there’s a temporary unemployment kicker. So the longer people stay out of work, the more they get. They get an additional kicker from the U.S. And these are temporary. These will go away over time. In most cases, these are voluntary unemployment because they are making more money on unemployment than they would be going back in there job before.

 

BBC: Sounds like that it’s a problem that will be sorted out?

 

TN: It will over time. But there will be a lag. I think when people are accustomed to making more not working, they will question themselves as to whether or not they want to go back to their job, which is not a bad thing questioning their vocation. These are all good questions to ask.

 

BBC: Do you think the government will try to help green industries and take a leap role in new economies. Like new ones, as a result of this pandemic?

 

TN: I think we have. We have subsidies for green industries since, I think, 1997. It’s possible that there new ones as a result of this pandemic. I have a very different view around the revitalization of economies. The fact is governments stopped economies around the world. This is not a market failure. So I don’t care if you are a capitalist or a socialist system. Governments closed businesses. So if governments closed businesses, businesses have the responsibility and the accountability to restart those businesses. Because if they don’t, we’ll see civil unrest and political risks in ways that all these governments have not considered before they closed their economies down. I don’t think that this is a capitalist-socialist issue. It’s a fact that the government intervened to halt the economies around the world.

 

BBC: In what direction will they regenerate the economies or bring economies back to their level before?

 

TN: People are not really happy with the level of stimulus that they are receiving, because, at the end of the day, people are pointing at the government for stopping this. And if you isolate people for too long, they get really restless. We are facing real political issues and social unrest issues, unless governments, regardless of the economic structure in the economy, we will face real problems.

 

BBC: For entrepreneurs, is this a good time to start a business?

 

TN: I think it’s a good time for people to change direction, because any future potential employers, if you say, “I changed direction in the wake of COVID,” no ones going to question your motivation. They are going to understand that this was the time that everyone reassessed. For businesses that I’ve built, I built a business unit for The Economist. And one of them saw our most rapid growth during the last recession in 2009, very rapid growth. I think there are a lot of opportunities if you play it right. But it’s also a good time to start over.

 

BBC: Where would you put your money on? If you want to change career?

 

TN: I would put it on me. I run a business. I think we’ll see a lot of food startups. I hear a lot of people talk about food startups. Within 18 months, a lot of those will be out. But they will learn new skills. People are also going very local, which is a good thing.

 

I think people have been able to slow down. They realize that they wanted to focus on small things. I’m not sure how long this will last but this is good for a lot of people.

 

BBC: What will be the role of universities now? Will people think it’s a waste of time? Will the role of schools change?

 

TN: I think the role of universities has traditionally been to teach you how to think, not necessarily how to do. If universities are then focused on how-to-think activities, that’s a much better role for them. I don’t think vocational training is the best use of money for universities. They are moving toward helping people how to think, not how to do.

 

I run a company. I don’t need somebody with PhD. I just need somebody with very basic skills that they can learn through online courses and some practical evidence of what they do. In a lot of these things that are very vocationally-based, you don’t need a degree. You just need to know how to do it.

 

BBC: What have you been buying on a lockdown? We’re not going to shop as much as we used to?

 

TN: For some reason, we purchased two new skateboards. Like everyone else, we are no different on gardening. All of these have been fantastic to go very local and spend time with neighbors.

 

Will we go back to the stores? I don’t think we’ll do as much shopping, but I think we need the social interaction of shopping. There’s just something about the social interaction of shopping, which is necessary to our human condition. I go to Walmart here, and there’s just an element that’s necessary.

Categories
Podcasts

Countries differ on ending coronavirus lockdown

Countries and governments around the world are starting to feel the strain of coronavirus lockdown, with some showing signs of easing up restrictions. But the World Health Organisation is urging serious care, saying it cannot be done in a hurry.

 

Also in the programme, the EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager has advised governments to prevent companies being taken over by Chinese firms.

 

Amazon’s share price surged after the company announced it would take on another 75,000 workers amidst increased demand, after already hiring some 100,000. Professor Scott Galloway at the New York University Stern School of Business discusses how we should interpret the move.

 

The world’s oil producers under OPEC and allies have agreed a record oil deal that will slash global output by about 10%. Paul Hickin, Associate Director at Platts, explains what this means for the future of oil prices.

 

Plus, with the internet full of memes and videos to help us get through uncertain times, the BBC’s Vivienne Nunis speaks to some of those creating internet content to make us smile during the long lockdown days. All through the show we’ll be joined by Rachel Cartland, author in Hong Kong and Tony Nash, chief economist at Complete Intelligence in Houston, Texas.

 

Listen to this podcast at BBC Business Matters.

 

 

Podcast Notes

 

BBC: What kind of restrictions are you subject to in Houston?

 

TN: Really it’s just mass gatherings, and there is a state home order. There are a lot of people outside. There are exceptions to essential businesses. And so a number of people going to work. Not many people to be honest.  I’ve never seen a lot of my neighbors outside, where they were out all the time.

 

BBC: That’s a positive of it, isn’t it? WHere you are, the restrictions aren’t as tight as they are in California and New York

 

TN: Texas has a pretty low death rate. So haven’t really put… there are restrictions. Dallas is on lockdown. Houston is on lockdown but not as stringent as Dallas. San Antonio and Austins are on lockdowns. But some people do get out of work. Some people, not a lot.

 

BBC: Is there a talk in Texas when it will be lifted given that the state is not as badly affected as other parts of America?

 

TN: The governor said that this week, he would announce when he would put an order together to get people back to work. I think you’re starting to see a real movement in the US. People are tired of being at home, they’re tired of being worried about their income, claiming unempoyment, seeing their friends being laid off or their friends claiming unemployment. It’s a scary time for people and regardless of the fiscal stimulus that’s coming out from DC, people just want to work.

 

BBC: Are people are scared that if they won’t catch the virus, their loved one will?

 

TN: They are. People are nervous about it. Some people are wearing masks. But I think what we’ve seen generally is it’s largely older people or people with tertiary, secondary conditions. It’s a worry. But people are adults and they can take precautions.

 

I think part of what may come about is a reverse action where people who are at risk may be advised to stay in and take precautions, while people who want to go to work are adivsed to go to work and take precatutions. What’s the difference in Texas is that we don’t have mass transit like New York does or San Francisco or some of the other places that are affected. Although some of those don’t like Seattle doesn’t have that mass transit. We don’t have those things here because we’re not densely populated. There is not much intermingling as you would get in London, Hong Kong, Singapore, or Beijing.

 

BBC: Do you see any evidence of this kind of thing is already happening or is this a fair of China kind of xenophobia in a way?

 

TN: I think there’s truth on both sides. It’s taking awhile to figure it out.

 

BBC: Should governments be buying stakes in companies whether that be in Europe, US, or whatever to make them American, or French, British or whatever?

 

TN: It depends on the company. If you look back in the Piraeus supporting Greece or the hydroelectric company in Portugal, Europoean governments were happy to sell those that 10 years ago. Was that the right thing to do? I’m not sure. But they’re quite happy to sell at that time. But now that the nationalistic environment has changed, I think European countries are being a bit more protectionists. So should Chinese capital be allowed to come in to buy European companies, it depends on how strategic those companies are to Europe’s economy and to Europe’s stake. If they are deemed strategically important, then they should be protected. If not they are not, then they shouldn’t be allowed to come in and buy.

 

BBC: Do you think this is the moment where 3D printing will enter the public conciousness and end up with people buying their own printers?

 

TN: It’s possible. I think it’s probably so early. But I think what’s interesting about this is the distributed nature of this. You can do small production run, it’s distributed, so you can make exactly what you want. The concern I have is affordability. The people with 3D printers, so if they have the funds, do it.

 

BBC: How is the state being affected by this plunge in oil?

 

TN: That’s pretty terrible. Houston is one fo the global centers for energy and a lot of the leading gas firms here are laying people off. It’s pretty terrible the way it’s affecting Texas.

 

BBC: You still work in the office. I’m broadcasting from my bedroom. Do you think we could see a change in a way people do work? Companies might decide they don’t need much office space because people can work from home?

 

TN: No. I think it’s nice to talk about this. I don’t think people are going to do less leisure travel. I don’t think companies are gonna have their staff travel less or people are gonna go to the office less.

 

We’re human beings. Once this is passed, it’s going to take some time for people to normalize. Things are going to go back because we like what we have. We like to take a holiday somewhere, we like to see the grandparents in another state. Things aren’t gonna change that much.

 

This economic downturn, it’s a government-mandated downturn. It’s not a market failure by anybody else. It’s government-mandated, so once the government mandates that we can go back to work and resume our life, we go back to it and we do what we do for the most part.

 

Our baseline expectation is that we’ll see deflation over the next year, and it’s already starting in China if you look at real estate prices and car prices because people don’t have as much money as they have a few months ago.

 

It’s a global phenomenon. We will see deflation in 2020. That is a fact. It’s a problematic fact. And it’s gonna force airline tickets, hotels, and other folks to lower their prices. Deflation isn’t just lowering prices, but it will force that, because people will have less money for a period of time.

 

BBC: What do you make about this concern about the role of Amazon? Amazon is not really having a good time. It’s stuck, closing almost at record level.

 

TN: I think, you know Amazon bought a company Pill Pack a few years ago. They already have health data on a lot of people. If there was a concern, why people didn’t raise it when we were in a different economic position?  I think many people are just happy earning on Amazon stock and subscribing to Prime at that time.

 

It’s concerning, but I don’t understand how this is different because it’s all health data on Americans. We all know that Amazon, Google, all these guys are going to monetize the data that they have on us. I’m not saying I love it and that I am perfectly at peace with it. It’s just strange that people wouldn’t be upset with their of Pill Pack a few years ago. But now they’re upset that Amazon is going to build organically facilities. And then there’s Bill Gates saying that he’s doing testing or planning to do the same stuff. Why are we comfortable with these corporate titans doing this stuff in one form when it’s as a foundation and not when it’s another form. I think it’s a little bit protective.

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US crude oil price collapses to 18-year low

US crude oil prices fell below $20 a barrel on Monday, close to their lowest level in 18 years, as traders bet production would have to shut to prevent a glut in the markets. The situation is particularly bleak for high-cost wells in the world’s largest producer: the US. We talk to Ellen Wald, from the Atlantic Council, in Florida, and Tom Adshead, a director of Macro Advisory in Moscow.

 

Meanwhile, the Coronavirus outbreak has caused a rather startling change in fish consumption in Kenya. Instead of importing stocks from China, Kenyans have refound their taste for local catches, boosting incomes within the industry. And what do you do when you’re in lockdown?

 

Podcast Notes:

BBC: What’s your thought on this, especially Houston is the self-proclaimed oil capital of the world?

 

TN: It’s had a huge impact. I live in North of Houston where Exxon Mobil is based, were the largest oil producer in the world is 5 minutes from my house. So it’s having a huge impact directly to our neighborhood and of course, Houston more broadly.

 

BBC: How many jobs in this industry? Can Houston diversify?

 

TN: Houston has done a lot of work diversifying over the last 30 years. Medicine, we have the largest health center in the US with the Houston Medical Center. The port of Houston is one of the largest ports in the US. There is quite a lot of financial services here. However, energy is still a large contributor to Houston. A crude price under $20 is really devastating for Houston and 10 of thousands of jobs have already been lost.

 

BBC: Is it viable at that sort of prices?

 

TN: I don’t think it’s viable for anybody. It’s not like the Saudi VS Russia VS Texas issue. It’s not viable fiscally for Iran, Russia, for anyone to pull oil from the ground at these prices. They can’t run their governments at these prices. It’s not viable commercially for companies in Texas to pull oil from the ground at these prices. These prices are not helping anybody. It really is the demand shock of coronavirus and the Saudi-Russia feud. If we didn’t have the demand shock, we wouldn’t be here. We’ll probably be in the 40s and the Saudi plan would be effective.

 

Also talks about computer online games, monopoly, jigsaw puzzles, and others.

 

Listen to the BBC Business Matters podcast here. 

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US warns against cruise ship travel as industry reels

Our CEO and founder is one of the live guests at BBC: Business Matters that talked about the cruise ship travel warnings, Italy’s Coronavirus, Wells Fargo, US politics, and sports.

 

BBC Notes:

 

The US State Department has told US citizens not to travel on cruise ships. We will look at how the industry has been left reeling from these latest government instructions.

 

Italy meanwhile remains on lockdown as the country attempts to stop the spread of coronavirus gripping it currently.

 

Wells Fargo, the bank that went bad, promises to Congress that it has turned the corner.

 

We look at whether we – or Congress – can take its new chief executive at his word. We ask who will help out companies when coronavirus hits supply chains harder, from Kerstin Braun, President of Stenn Group, an international provider of trade finance.

 

We talk about all this live with guests Yumiko Murakami from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) in Tokyo, and Tony Nash, CEO and Founder of Complete Intelligence, a contextual artificial intelligence platform in Houston, Texas.

 

 

Show Notes:

 

Do you think this is the way that all countries (same as Italy) will have to go? Could it happen in the States?

It could, but I don’t think it will.  Part of the problem in Italy is almost 25% of Italians are over the age of 65. If you look at the mortality rate, for those over 80 years old, it’s about 15% and for those over 70 is 8%. The biggest risk is in older populations. With Italy being the oldest country in Europe.

 

The people who are affected by it are largely older people and they are not working-age population and not consumption cohorts of the economy. Anybody under 60 years old, there’s a less than a 0.5% chance of fatality. It’s just not bearing out in the direct economy. But we are seeing concerns for older people, justifiably, we should be. But does it necessarily require the shut down of the economy? I’m not so sure.

 

Do you think he’s got what it takes to take on Trump?

I think it’s gonna be hard to beat Joe Biden at this point. But it’s gonna be an uphill battle for him with Trump because Trump is already taken him on in social media and speeches, and I’m not sure Joe Biden has the ability to respond to Trump in a debate, etc. in a way that Americans expect.

 

The populism way of 2016 is not really over in the US yet and Biden cannot grasp that. There was an issue with him in a factory him cursing a factory worker that upset a lot of people.

 

Do you think if the Coronavirus continues at this rate, and tips the economy into recession, does that make the President more vulnerable?

I think it can. That’s 6 months away, anything is possible in 6 months in politics. If the US is the only one affected or affected worse, then sure, it will make Trump vulnerable. But if the US is kinda similarly affected to other places, I think it’s hard to blame him. I’m not exactly sure how Biden will take that in November. They may just blame China.

 

It’s very hard for Biden to play the common man message. If you’re talking about the economic dislocation (1% vs the 99%), Joe Biden has been carried in the womb of government health care plans for the last 60 years or something. Most Americans are very resentful at public sector workers because they have a very good insurance plan. It will be very hard for Joe Biden to play the populist in that role. I just don’t see a scenario that Biden looks better than Trump in that scenario.

 

If you really want to drive a clear wedge between the Republicans and Democrats, Sanders would have been a very clear alternative to Trump. But you can’t really say that Biden, at least from the kinda rich guy getting his kids job, it’s really hard to say that Biden’s really much that different.

 

Listen to the podcast on BBC: Business Matters.

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Huawei chief fights extradition to the US

Huawei chief operating officer appears in a Canadian court to fight extradition to the United States on charges of fraud and breaching sanctions on Iran.

 

The United States Census for 2020 is launched in Alaska, an important exercise for economic planning – we hear from Gabriel Layman, the Chief Operating Officer of Cook Inlet Housing Authority, about the quirks of gathering such huge amounts of information.

 

And baseball is hit by a cheating scandal which could prompt advertisers to walk. And in Japan, a major restaurant chain is feeling the effects of the country’s ageing population.

 

We discuss all this with live guests Sushma Ramachandran, an independent business journalist for The Tribune newspaper in Delhi, and Tony Nash, chief economist at Complete Intelligence in Houston, Texas.

 

Listen to the podcast at BBC Business Matters.

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Podcasts

Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency faces opposition

15 July 2019

Tony Nash, the chief economist at Complete Intelligence joins BBC’s Business Matters podcast from Houston Texas.

US treasury secretary, Steve Mnuchin has said he is concerned about Libra’s potential criminal use. He told a press conference it could be used by “money launderers and terrorist financiers” and said it was a national security issue. We hear from Bloomberg’s Lydia Beyoud.

Huawei announces significant investment in Italy despite America urging other countries not to do business with the Chinese technology firm. We hear from Adam Seagal, the director of the Digital and Cyberspace Programme at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Listen to the rest of the podcast at BBC Business Matters
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French Presidential Election

Francois Fillon, the candidate of the center-right in the upcoming French presidential election, faces calls to quit after prosecutors widen their investigation into allegations of fraud against the candidate and his wife. We hear from Pierre Briancon from Politico Europe.

 

A clean air scheme which preventing people from using their cars in Mexico City has had no effect on air pollution, according to a recent study. We speak to its author, Dr Lucas Davis of the University of California, Berkeley.

 

Should non-profit organisations like churches be allowed to back political parties or candidates? In America, ever since the Johnson Amendment in 1954, they have been banned from doing so. Now Donald Trump says he wants to change that. Julie Zauzmar, who covers religion for the Washington Post, explains why.

 

And after a week in which President Trump has had some “tough” phone calls with other world leaders, we ask whether getting angry in negotiations ever works. We hear from Henry Evans, co-author of Step Up, Lead in Six Moments that Matter, who also runs the business consultancy Dynamic Results.

 

We’re joined throughout the programme by Tony Nash, chief economist at Complete Intelligence in Singapore, and Diane Brady, a business columnist and author in New York.

 

Listen this story about the French presidential eleciton in BBC World Business Matters