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{"id":41638,"date":"2021-06-29T08:40:53","date_gmt":"2021-06-29T13:40:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.completeintel.com\/?p=41638"},"modified":"2021-06-29T08:40:53","modified_gmt":"2021-06-29T13:40:53","slug":"the-death-of-growth-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/completeintel.com\/the-death-of-growth-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The Death of Growth: Old & rich vs young & poor in 2030 & beyond (Part 2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

The world’s birth rate is changing. Clint Laurent from Global Demographics shares surprising discoveries that he believes will happen in the next 10 years and how this will shape the world?<\/p>\n

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This is the second part of this discussion. Go here for part one.<\/a><\/p>\n

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Clint started Global Demographics<\/a> in 1996 and cover 117 countries throughout the world and China. They do that right down to county level of 2,248 counties. Clint believes that demographics are better than financial data from the point of view of forecasting \u00a0because they tend to be stable trends.<\/p>\n

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Global Demographics is able to come up with reliable forecasts at least 15 years out. After 15 years, reliability goes down and they are typically never more plus or minus 5% error in our long-term forecast. Their clients are mainly consumer goods companies, infrastructure backbones and things like that.<\/p>\n

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Subscribe to our Youtube Channel<\/a>.<\/p>\n

💌 Subscribe to CI Newsletter<\/a>\u00a0and gain AI-driven intelligence.<\/p>\n

📊 Forward-looking companies become more profitable with Complete Intelligence. The only fully automated and globally integrated AI platform for smarter cost and revenue planning.\u00a0Book a demo here.<\/a><\/p>\n

📈\u00a0Check out the CI Futures platform<\/a>\u00a0to forecast currencies, commodities, and equity indices<\/p>\n

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This QuickHit episode was recorded on June 17, 2021.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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The views and opinions expressed in this QuickHit Clint Demographics Part 2 QuickHit episode are those of the guest and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Complete Intelligence. Any contents provided by our guest are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any political party, religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Show Notes<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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TN:<\/strong> So Indonesia, India, Brazil and so on, so capital formation, capital investment is the real weakness there and it seems to me that’s a function of largely education. Is that fair to say?<\/p>\n

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CL:<\/strong> That’s exactly what it is. I mean, they you know, as they get the education right and, you know, they’re working on it, most of these countries that have been quite responsible in that area. And as they get that right, so the investment comes in, so the consumer gets more affluent and becomes a virtuous circle.<\/p>\n

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TN:<\/strong> OK, well, what timescale are we talking about for that consumption to come in a really notable way, for example, to take the place of, say, the under 40 Chinese consumption or the under 40, say, Western Europe or American consumption?<\/p>\n

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CL:<\/strong> Well, that’s the bad news. I mean, when you take India at least 15 years to get there. Because the education is only just coming right. And again to pick on India. India’s urbanization, 10 years ago, it was 30% of the population. Today, it’s 33% of the population.<\/p>\n

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TN:<\/strong> OK. So it’s not happening nearly fast enough.<\/p>\n

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CL:<\/strong> No. When you’re an uneducated girl in a village, why would you go to a slum somewhere of a big city? Your lifestyle would be actually worse, not better. And so they hadn’t been able to get that China effect of moving people from the low productivity agriculture into high productivity urban type of work.<\/p>\n

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TN:<\/strong> Yeah, but I think a lot of the, particularly the Westerners who are watching this would say, yeah, but I’ve been to Gurgaon and I’ve, you know, I’ve been to that kind of tech hubs in India. And I see, you know, a lot of women coming up in those hubs or have come up in those hubs over the last 10 or 20 years. But is not just such a small percentage that it matters, but it’s not making a huge difference?<\/p>\n