Weekly Outlook: Nov 17, 2025
The market is no longer just pricing in a US soft landing; it is actively positioning for its second-order effects. With the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot now a consensus-driving assumption, the next trade appears to be a classic rotation into high-beta, pro-cyclical assets. These are the assets most leveraged to the consequences of a post-hike Fed: a structurally weaker dollar, a rebound in global manufacturing, and a new wave of reflation.
The Cyclical Core: Copper
CI Markets forecasts a move higher for Copper (HG=F). This is not just a passive signal; it is the market’s primary bet on a global industrial cycle recovery. A dovish Fed implies a weaker US dollar, which serves to lower the cost of commodities for foreign buyers. “Dr. Copper” is the purest expression of this thesis, signaling that investors are now front-running the expected rebound in global manufacturing and construction, a trade that has been dormant for over a year.
The Monetary Multiplier: Silver
CI Markets forecasts a move higher for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Silver is a unique asset, acting as a high-beta version of both growth and inflation. Unlike gold, which is primarily a monetary hedge, silver possesses a dual mandate: it is a critical industrial metal (benefiting from the HG=F growth thesis) and a precious metal (benefiting from the inflationary side-effects of that growth). A rally in SLV confirms the market is pricing in both factors simultaneously, making it a leveraged vehicle for the entire reflation theme.
Emerging Markets
CI Markets forecasts a move higher for the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). This is where the capital flow becomes undeniable. Emerging market economies are the quintessential “high-beta” play on the global cycle. They are a) major commodity producers, b) major industrial centers, and c) the most direct beneficiaries of a weakening U.S. dollar, which eases their financial conditions. The forecast for a rally in EEM shows that capital is flowing out of crowded, “safe” U.S. markets and into these higher-growth assets to capture the next phase of the rally.
Conclusion
The simultaneous, positive forecasts for copper, silver, and emerging markets are not a coincidence. They represent a sophisticated and unified rotation. The market has moved past the US-centric “soft landing” and is now aggressively positioning for its global consequences. This is a classic “catch-up” trade, and it suggests the dominant theme for the week will be a broad-based, high-beta hunt for reflation.
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