Weekly Outlook: Nov 24, 2025
The market is shifting from a monolithic “soft landing” narrative to a story of stark divergence. Capital is no longer flowing indiscriminately; it is becoming highly selective, punishing assets tied to fading geopolitical risks while rewarding secular growth themes. This decoupling suggests investors are actively rotating out of the “war premium” trade and positioning for a year-end technology push, effectively bifurcating the market into clear winners and losers.
The Geopolitical Reset: Crude Oil
CI Markets forecasts a move lower for Crude Oil Futures (CL=F). This downward trajectory reflects a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that has supported energy prices for months. With the narrative shifting toward potential de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the market is aggressively pricing out supply disruption fears. This is a structural repricing, signaling that investors view the “peace dividend” as a bearish catalyst for the energy complex, overriding even the typical sector rotation that occurs late in the year.
The Secular Leader: Nasdaq Composite
CI Markets forecasts a move higher for the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC). Despite the noise surrounding valuation concerns and “AI bubble” debates, the index remains the preferred destination for liquidity. This forecast indicates that the market is looking past immediate volatility to focus on year-end seasonality and “bullish December signals.” By shrugging off the weakness in the energy sector, the Nasdaq is asserting its role as the primary vehicle for growth, driven by renewed optimism around interest rates and the continued resilience of the semiconductor trade.
The Economic Crossroads: Industrials
CI Markets forecasts continued volatility for the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI). Unlike the clear directional signals in energy and tech, the industrial sector is caught in a tug-of-war between falling input costs (cheaper oil) and uncertain global demand. This forecast for “choppy” price action suggests the sector is currently the market’s “wait and see” trade. It serves as a barometer for the broader economy, unable to fully participate in the growth rally until there is greater clarity on the trajectory of industrial output and global trade flows.
Conclusion
The divergence between a bullish Nasdaq and a bearish oil market is not a contradiction; it is a rational re-pricing of risk. The market is effectively shedding its inflation hedges to double down on secular growth, leaving cyclical middles like industrials in limbo. This suggests the dominant theme for the week will be a rotation away from commodity-driven volatility and toward the comparative stability of the technology sector, as investors position themselves for a strong finish to the year.
The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.