Complete Intelligence

CI Banner
Login

Month: April 2020

Categories
Podcasts

Using Data to Scale your Business in a Smarter Way with Tony Nash

Tony Nash, CEO and founder of Complete Intelligence, speaks with Austinpreneur about using data to scale your business and talks about what his company does and how it helps businesses do better forecasting. Questions asked during the podcast:

 

  1. Tell us about yourself and your company.
  2. Can you contextualize and give examples of how your products and services help procurement folks?
  3. How did you come up with this business idea?
  4. Why did you decide to move from Singapore to Texas?
  5. What do you think caused the skills improvement in the US?
  6. What’s causing high turnover rates?
  7. What’s your take on AI and how does your computer use that?
  8. How are you working to build data privacy and security?
  9. What does the future look in AI and Complete Intelligence?
  10. What are the trends that you are looking at?
  11. Why don’t we have a higher level of transparency in products and processes?

Description from Austinpreneur: Trying to predict the future for any business can be a challenge. Accurate and reliable data is a highly prioritized need for any business in any market. Complete Intelligence was built to provide business with data that is highly accurate and will allow you to build and grow with a glimpse into what the future could be. Tony Nash has built Complete Intelligence to enable revenue teams and finance teams to better manage their risk.

 

Listen to the podcast in Austinpreneur.

 

Categories
News Articles

COVID-19: Towards the end of everything “made in China” for electronics manufacturers?

This post on Made in China first appeared in https://www.usine-digitale.fr/article/covid-19-vers-la-fin-du-tout-made-in-china-pour-les-fabricants-d-electronique.N950286. The copy posted below is originally in French and was Google-translated to English.

 

It is an old factory with a decrepit facade, on which climb some wild grasses. At the edge of this canal in the south of Taipei, only a watchman watches the ear. The plot has just been bought by the Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Pegatron to increase its production capacity in Taiwan. Reported by the financial media Bloomberg, the initiative is the latest in a series of investment projects outside of China announced by Taiwanese subcontractors.

 

From Apple to Samsung, these shadow firms manufacture, assemble and sometimes design products on behalf of major electronics brands. Most of these companies have their headquarters and a handful of factories in Taiwan. But the final assembly is mainly carried out on the other side of the strait. The Taiwanese giant Foxconn, the main assembler of the iPhone, thus employs more than a million workers in China, distributed in twelve giant factories.

 

“FACTORY CITIES” CHALLENGED BY THE PANDEMIC

 

This model, based on economies of scale, was severely tested by the COVID-19 crisis. Travel bans imposed by Chinese authorities have led to production delays, as evidenced by the shortage of Nintendo Switch, assembled by Foxconn. The firm also anticipates a 15% decrease in revenue for the first quarter of 2020.

 

“The ‘gigantic’ model takes a hell of a slap, straightforward analysis Pascal Viaud, managing director of UBIK, a company specializing in partnerships and industrial cooperation based in Taiwan. The sectors are aware of their dependence on China and the logistical risks that this implies. Some companies, especially the smaller ones, did not necessarily know this because it concerns their second or third level of subcontracting. ”

 

According to recent announcements from Taiwanese subcontractors, the COVID-19 epidemic would push major brands to rethink their production line. Wistron, another supplier to Apple, recently unveiled a budget of $ 1 billion for projects of new factories in India, Vietnam and Mexico. “Many signals from our customers let us think that’s what we need to do “, Wistron chief strategy officer Simon Lin said in a conference call reported by the Singaporean daily Straits Times. According to Bloomberg, Foxconn, for its part, planned an envelope of $ 17 billion for projects in India and Vietnam.

 


Foxconn’s headquarters in Taiwan

 

LOOKING FOR ALTERNATIVES TO CHINA

 

“China is becoming riskier for these companies, which may have felt that authorities withheld information during the epidemic, said Tony Nash, chief executive of Complete Intelligence, a business planning platform. costs and revenues of companies running on artificial intelligence. These companies are increasingly looking for alternatives to China. This is a classic risk reduction strategy already at work, but one that will seriously accelerate the next three years. ”

 

Kuan-lin (the first name has been changed) can testify to this. This salesperson works for a Taiwanese manufacturer whose client is a famous American brand of computers. For the past three weeks, the employee has been under constant pressure from his hierarchy and rarely leaves his office before 10 p.m. “Because of the epidemic, our client is asking us to speed up a project to build a factory in Mexico,” he explains, with dark circles and a pale complexion.

 

 

TRADE WAR WEIGHS ON SUBCONTRACTORS

 

The trend is not new. The trade war between China and the United States had already pushed part of the electronic production out of China. The manufacturers hoped to escape the sanctions of the Trump administration, applied to “Made in China” products. Depending on its Chinese factories, Foxconn had paid the price: according to calculations by the specialized media Bloomberg, the profits of the subcontractor fell by 24% for the period from October to December 2019.

 

“Competitors who did not have production lines in Taiwan have been disadvantaged by the trade war, confirms a manager of a Taiwanese electronics company which has a production tool on site. Thanks to our Taiwanese factory, we were able to reserve our products made in Taiwan for the American market. ”

 

With a skilled workforce and cutting-edge infrastructure, Taiwan is well placed to stand out. The Taiwanese government has elsewhere launched a vast plan to facilitate the return of factories to its soil. But the archipelago lacks space and has a limited comparative advantage. “Taiwan is suitable for high-end products, which can be sold more expensive, points out the same frame. For other products, manufacturing in Taiwan has an impact on profitability.”

 

 

TOWARDS REGIONALIZATION OF PRODUCTION

 

The most likely scenario seems to be that of a regionalization of production, which would jointly benefit several countries. “This is not going to be a massive departure from China, anticipates Tony Nash. For Asia, there will simply be more additional parts manufactured in Taiwan or Vietnam. For the American market, it could be Mexico.”

 

As a note from Deloitte suggests, this shift could also be accompanied by increased digitization of the production chain. Joined by L’Usine Digitale, Eddie Chang, head of finance at ASE Group, one of the Taiwanese behemoths for the assembly and testing of electronic circuits, confirms this future direction: “We are going to develop technologies enabling virtual teamwork and industrial automation. We also plan to increase the automation of our logistics to reduce human interactions”.

 

 

CHINA HAS NOT SAID ITS LAST WORD

 

However, the recent development of the epidemic calls for caution. In China, the main factories have returned to their pre-crisis operating level. Foxconn was able to restore production of the new iPhone SE with massive hires and inflated work premiums. “During the crisis in China, our factories were at 60% of their capacity, today we are not far from 100%”, confirms a sector executive whose factories are in Shenzhen.

 

At the same time, the countries presented as alternatives to China are in turn impacted by the epidemic. In India, where Apple produces its iPhones for the local market, Foxconn and Wistron have announced that they have suspended production until mid-April. The US state of Wisconsin, where a Foxconn factory is soon to come out of the ground, has seen in recent days a dizzying increase in the number of cases of contamination.

 

“The new turn that the COVID-19 crisis has taken is a game-changer,” says Aymeric Mariette, research officer at the France China Committee. The attitude [of electronics companies located in China] is now much more wait-and-see for relocations “. Apple CEO Tim Cook also defended himself at the end of February from any major movement, preferring to speak of “adjustment adjustments” linked to the crisis.

 

Especially since China will not let these companies slip through its fingers so easily. The strategic challenges are significant: the ecosystem of electronic suppliers has enabled Chinese brands, such as Huawei, to follow in the footsteps of American giants. “The Chinese authorities are carrying out charming offensives towards foreign investors in China, for example with the promise of equal treatment in access to financial aid, facilitation of investments or even the announcement of new reforms, analyzes Aymeric Mariette: China knows that it is now ahead of the other major world economies and intends to profit from it. ”

 

Categories
Podcasts

Worse GDPs, Market Expectations, Chinese Manufacturing, and the Rising US Dollar

BFM speaks to Tony about corporate earnings as worse GDPs, market expectations, and the Dow and S&P 500 extended losses after their worst quarter since 2008 as Trump warned of a “painful two weeks ahead”. They also get into Tony’s expectations for markets in April, the shortage of US Dollars globally and Chinese Manufacturing data.

 

Produced by: Michael Gong

Presented by: Roshan Kanesan, Noelle Lim, Khoo Hsu Chuang

 

Listen to the podcast at BFM: The Business Station

 

 

Podcast Notes

 

BFM: But right now. Let’s take a look at global markets, a deeper look at global markets and to do that, we speak to Tony Nash, CEO of complete intelligence. Tony, thank you for joining us on the line this morning. Now the Dow and the S&P 500 extended loss after their worse quarter since 2008, as Trump warned of a painful two weeks. I think, for the Dow, this was the worst quarter since 1987, if I’m not incorrect there. Now, how badly is this going to hit US corporate earnings across the board?

 

TN: It does really depend on the energy sector, but generally it’s hitting things pretty bad. I guess the good news is it’s only part of Q1. So the last few weeks of Q1, but I guess the big question mark and the reason markets are really saying negative is nobody is sure how long we need to endure?

 

It is another couple of weeks, is it another few months? And that’s why we’re seeing markets in the red because nobody really knows. And so I live in Houston, in Texas. So it’s the energy capital of the world. Malaysia’s feeling a similar pressure with the oil and gas and a lot of my neighbors, thousands of my neighbors have been laid off from their jobs. So it’s not just the stores being shut and things that are not happening. It’s actual incomes not coming in as well.

 

So that consumption part of the GDP calculation will be decimated for at least a single week. And this is why you’ve seen the big government intervention come in with the 2-terms plan, which allows government spending. That ‘G’ part of the GDP calculation, it allows that to replace some of the consumer spendings and that’s one component that’s been displaced over the last few weeks and will be displaced for the part of Q2. So, our view is it the last fiscal plan in the U.S.?

 

We expect at least one more, if not two, five to six trillion dollars of fiscal spending from the U.S. government. The real question is whether other governments can afford to match a similar proportion of their GDP. I’m skeptical that none of them can. So what matters right now to consumers is fiscal health, fiscal spending. For central banks do not matter as much. What matters is getting hands into the consumers.

 

BFM: U.S. right now has over 200 thousand COVID-19 cases and the situation does not look like it’s improving, and we might see even more lockdowns in the U.S. So do you expect markets will perform even more badly in April? And how might markets land in April?

 

TN: No, I think what’s affecting markets really is the uncertainty not necessarily the case count because, you know, not all tests are created equally. And what really matters in the case count is the denominator.

 

What we found is, yes US test is actually pretty accurate, unlike a number of other tests out there. And so the number of false positives and false negatives are a lot lower that’s my understanding of the US test. And the portion of population that’s been tested in the US is growing pretty rapidly. So although we see those cases counts growing, we see it as a fairly good example of the real picture in the US. Now, what we have seen on the ground here in the U.S. So the governor of Texas came out a few days ago and said that 99 percent of the bed space allocated for covered patients is empty. So we’re not seeing people in hospitals here. We are seeing things in other parts of the country. And of course, there are cases here. But what we’re doing again and again and again is that people will come in with other ailments that will be diagnosed as COVID. So COVID is a secondary or tertiary infection to something that is really, really ailing them.

 

So and that’s the question that people need to start peeling back is, “Is COVID the primary cause of that fatality or is was there already a number of other ailments in place and COVID was somewhat incidental?” Until we start asking these questions, you really won’t understand how deeply dire the problem is.

 

BFM: Tony, there’s a shortage of US dollars in the world today obviously as a safe haven. The Fed has introduced a new repo facility for foreign central banks to draw down on what you know about this facility and how effective has it been?

 

TN: Well, it’s been pretty effective. I mean, we see the trade weighted dollar down 99 with a 99 handle on it now it was up 103 or something, which makes it very difficult for people outside of the U.S. needing dollars. There’s a lot of U.S. dollars denominated debt. There’s a lot of trade conducted in U.S. dollars. So if the US dollar is expensive and if governments are having to buy medical equipment and other things in U.S. dollars, it makes it even harder for them to address some of these quality concerns. So the US government has been working very hard to help other countries by pushing the value of the U.S. dollar down. So these facilities and it’s easy for countries to put up pretty low quality assets in exchange for U.S. dollars. So that the U.S. can churn more U.S. dollars out into the global economy to grain that supply up and, of course, bring the value down. So I’m not really optimistic that they’ll be able to keep it down for long. I think the flight to kind of safe haven currencies is going to persist. So I think the dollar value is going to rise, continue to rise. But I think it’s really important for the Fed to focus on this and to take these efforts in the short term to help countries get the equipment they need and transact in dollars at a lower rate.

 

BFM: There’s a report forecasting a severe contraction for China this year, however, the latest PMI data beat market expectations. What is your current outlook on China’s economy?

 

TN: You know what’s interesting forecast, because the world’s economies can’t have a very downbeat China forecast without China’s permission. So, somebody is trying to get bad news out there, okay? So I think what we may be seeing, because we saw the PMIs came out a couple days ago that weren’t that bad. But we’ve also seen a lot of government spending to try to offset the lack of business and consumer activity. So there’s no doubt there’s going to be a bad reading in China this year. And I think the World Bank report is a way for the Chinese government to allow us to get out into the market first so they’re not seen as disappointing on their deliverable of 6 percent. So we’ve, you know, Complete Intelligence had believed that China’s been growing at 4 to 5 percent for the past couple of years. So with this, I believe it’s a 2.7 percent rate been said for continuous something, I can’t remember. But it allows China to deliver under 6 percent to deliver over whatever the World Bank forecast was so that they can start to notch down those expectations. So I think the World Bank report is probably credible. I don’t know that it’s necessarily that dire, but it might be, that I think it gives NBS and China an excuse to clock significantly under 6 layer.

 

BFM: Tony, how about your comments changed as the context of a couple of reports overnight suggesting a) that China has been doctoring the data on coronavirus the last couple of months and b) that a county in China, other reports suggesting that parts of the country is not under a new lockdown because of a further outbreak.

 

TN: Well, first, I don’t think it’s crazy that anybody that China’s been doctoring the data, but I don’t think China is unique. I think there are many, many countries out there that are doctoring the data. I think political leaders are afraid that corona would be seen as a political failure. And so I think many, many numbers. And China, usually have been singled out in this kind of data doctoring, which they’re guilty, but they’re not the only ones. So, you know, is there a resurgence of this? I don’t know if there’s a resurgence as much as maybe it didn’t pale off in the way the Chinese authorities said it did. So whether it’s a statistical resurgence, you know, maybe that’s the case. But these were you know, these were always there and they didn’t see the decline that was expected several weeks ago. I think that’s likelier than the fact that there’s just some crazy resurgence in COVID in China. But, you know, I don’t think anybody should be shocked. I don’t think China is angry or guilty than anybody else. They’re known for this. A lot of statistics ministries are known for its reporting and health agencies on this reporting. So it’s just the nature of reporting national level data that can be seen as politically sensitive.

 

BFM: Thank you so much for joining us on the line this morning. That was Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence.

 

Categories
Podcasts

US crude oil price collapses to 18-year low

US crude oil prices fell below $20 a barrel on Monday, close to their lowest level in 18 years, as traders bet production would have to shut to prevent a glut in the markets. The situation is particularly bleak for high-cost wells in the world’s largest producer: the US. We talk to Ellen Wald, from the Atlantic Council, in Florida, and Tom Adshead, a director of Macro Advisory in Moscow.

 

Meanwhile, the Coronavirus outbreak has caused a rather startling change in fish consumption in Kenya. Instead of importing stocks from China, Kenyans have refound their taste for local catches, boosting incomes within the industry. And what do you do when you’re in lockdown?

 

Podcast Notes:

BBC: What’s your thought on this, especially Houston is the self-proclaimed oil capital of the world?

 

TN: It’s had a huge impact. I live in North of Houston where Exxon Mobil is based, were the largest oil producer in the world is 5 minutes from my house. So it’s having a huge impact directly to our neighborhood and of course, Houston more broadly.

 

BBC: How many jobs in this industry? Can Houston diversify?

 

TN: Houston has done a lot of work diversifying over the last 30 years. Medicine, we have the largest health center in the US with the Houston Medical Center. The port of Houston is one of the largest ports in the US. There is quite a lot of financial services here. However, energy is still a large contributor to Houston. A crude price under $20 is really devastating for Houston and 10 of thousands of jobs have already been lost.

 

BBC: Is it viable at that sort of prices?

 

TN: I don’t think it’s viable for anybody. It’s not like the Saudi VS Russia VS Texas issue. It’s not viable fiscally for Iran, Russia, for anyone to pull oil from the ground at these prices. They can’t run their governments at these prices. It’s not viable commercially for companies in Texas to pull oil from the ground at these prices. These prices are not helping anybody. It really is the demand shock of coronavirus and the Saudi-Russia feud. If we didn’t have the demand shock, we wouldn’t be here. We’ll probably be in the 40s and the Saudi plan would be effective.

 

Also talks about computer online games, monopoly, jigsaw puzzles, and others.

 

Listen to the BBC Business Matters podcast here. 

Categories
QuickHit Visual (Videos)

QuickHit: How healthy are banks in this COVID-19 era?

 

This week’s QuickHit episode, Tony Nash talked with Dave Mayo, CEO and Founder of FedFis, and an expert on banking, finance, and Fintech. This episode looks at US financial institutions like banks and how they are faring during the Coronavirus pandemic. Will new financial technologies help streamline the process of providing services like loans to medium and small businesses?

 

Watch the previous QuickHit episode on the Status of Global Supply Chain in Time of Coronavirus with the president of Secure Global Logistics, George Booth.

The views and opinions expressed in this QuickHit episode are those of the guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Complete Intelligence. Any content provided by our guests are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any political party, religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything.

Show Notes

 

TN: Hi, everybody. This is Tony Nash. I’m the founder and CEO of Complete Intelligence. This is our Quick Hit where we talk to industry experts about issues in markets and in industries.

 

Today we’re with Dave Mayo. Dave is the founder and CEO of FedFis based in Texas. Dave, thanks for joining us, I really appreciate it.

 

Can you tell us a little bit about FedFis? And then I’d really love to jump into how you’re helping out the financial services sector.

 

DM: Sure. We’re a unique company. We sit as a layer above banking, we call FI fintech, and then fintech. From the banking side obviously, we are a data company and provider and intelligence. From the FI fintech side, those would be the vendors to the institutions like their core mobile offering. And then FinTech, that’s the new stuff, right? That’s the sexy stuff, like the Chime and the SoFis and those types of companies that used to be alt banking and now they’re joined back to banking again. So we help all of those different layers in one way or another through a data set that we have and intelligence.

 

TN: With everything going on in the wake of Coronavirus, there’s been a lot of talk about fiscal stimulus coming out of D.C. and stimulus through the Fed and other things. What is the health of the banking sector from your perspective? Because back in 2008 the banking sector was the worry, right? Is that the worry now? Is that something we should be worried about?

 

DM: I think our banking industry is based on a level of faith. It always has been, right? Now that said, this is a completely different situation. Banks are very well-capitalized. Banks are not the cause of the problem. We don’t have a systemic banking problem or issue. We’re very, very healthy right now. When you talk about a stimulus being put into the economy, the more money flows in and out, the more people spend and buy and purchase, the better things are. That’s just the way the banking industry is built.

 

TN: How do you see banking and FinTech really helping? Obviously we know how they help big companies with big placements and debt and these sorts of things. But how do you see them helping small and mid-sized companies with this economic gulf that we have right now, where the economy’s effectively been turned off for a period of time, which is a bit weird? How do you see, what you’re doing, and banks generally, really helping out there on the smaller and midsize level?

 

DM: I think there’s a big gap in education in our country when it comes to banking. People are like, “I don’t like banks” or “I like banks.” When there are the big banks, the big four: the B of A, Wells Fargo, Chase, Citi. And then we have community banks.

 

Community bankers all across the country, they’re the life of our banking system. They’re the heartbeat. It’s actually a lower touch point for consumers and FinTech with the dramatic decline in a number of community institutions that has really opened up this opportunity for a FinTech. And the reason being is it’s a direct touch point.

 

So if you were to say “I want to use my mobile device” or “I want to use my online to do banking without having to actually drive to an institution and deal with all their policies and all of the things that go with it,” it’s a faster connection point. And I think we’re probably going to see a lot of that in these business loans the PPP loans through the stimulus plan.

 

TN: How do we actually execute that from the Treasury to the small business owner or to the individual that needs help? So, do you think that some of these FinTechs are kind of non-banks? I mean, would you consider them kind of non-banks within this system? Do you think they’ll be able to do this stuff faster? And I don’t mean this as a negative to banks. Banks are highly regulated. Do you think some of these FinTechs will be able to do some of this stuff faster?

 

DM: It depends on which way you look at it. Because here’s the deal: so when we talk about banking and then we talked about FI FinTech and then FinTech. So a bank is a chartered institution and FI FinTech is a technology arm of that like online banking, mobile banking. A FinTech is something that looks like a bank, talks like a bank, but it doesn’t have a charter. It’s not really a bank. So they have to partner with an existing bank to charter. So there’s a bank behind every FinTech company. So when you think of Chime and companies like that, there’s an actual bank behind that company that’s doing the regulatory side of this to protect consumers.

 

TN: You guys track a lot of data around banking and real estate and consumer stuff and industry stuff. Are you seeing any data that’s really talking about or raising your worries about the velocity of money about how quickly people are spending? Are you seeing that data? If it’s worrying you, when does that worry end for you? Do you see us going back in to say a quasi-normal situation within the next two months or something?

 

DM: Predicting the future I’ve never really been a big proponent of. That’s your business. But for us, what we look at are key components.

 

One way to measure things right now is to look at a mortgage note on a 15 or a 30. What is the spread between, what we would call in the old days, prime and what is the asking rate on that loan So you’re generally looking at above 3 percent. And as long as you’re looking at that, that’s a strong indication that there’s a lot of refis going on right now. And so the spread is there. That’s an adequate spread for banks to make money. There’s a huge volume of it going on. And as long as we see that volume and people continue to go to the bank, cash their checks, direct deposit always helps.

 

When we use our debit cards, when we go out and do the things that we do. Changing our mechanism of spending money whether it’s through Amazon as opposed to going through the mall doesn’t change the fact that you’re still spending money. Those are all positive things.

 

But I think the one thing we want to keep an eye on is the volume of lending. Everyone in a situation like this is going to have a tendency to kind of climb up a little bit. And, as long as that continues to flow, and one of the primary things that I’d be looking at is refis and other lending types of loan, etc.

 

TN: Are there any specific indicators you’re looking at on the commercial side to see if people are climbing up?

 

DM: I don’t really see anything from that perspective. I don’t think people are running out there right now at a time like this. It’s fairly obvious. You wouldn’t want to run out and start a new construction project or something like that. Those are gonna have an impact. There’s no way around it, but there again that’s what stimulus is there to offset.

 

Right now, I would say we’ve got a very healthy banking system. We’re coming out of a very healthy economy and so what’s our time frame of a bounce-back is it going to be a v-bottom or is it going to be spread out? I think it’ll be a little more spread out than a V-bottom and I think they’ll probably be multiple cycles of this that go on to some degree.

 

But starting from a really healthy position in our banking system and in our economy, this will pass. And when it does, here’s the thing I think is so interesting, unprecedented levels of stimulus and, the old saying you don’t fight the Fed, right? So does the market go up and we have a stimulated economy? Of course it does. And with this level of pent-up demand and stimulus, will there be a bounce back? Yeah, there’ll be a bounce back. The question is how huge will it be and how fast?

 

TN: That’s great Dave. It’s a huge source of optimism. Thank you so much for that and I really appreciate that you’ve taken the time to join us today. So really appreciate your time and and thanks very much for, for all that you’ve shared with us today. I really appreciate it.