Weekly Outlook: Jan 26, 2026
The “Anti-Dollar” trade is back, but this isn’t about interest rates anymore. It’s about systemic stability.
The weekend’s news cycle was a wake-up call for global capital. We are witnessing a “Triple Shock”:
- In China, President Xi’s unprecedented purge of General Zhang Youxia signals a dangerous consolidation of power.
- In Japan, the bond market “Rebellion” last week sent 40-year yields breaching 4.2%, threatening a massive repatriation of capital that shakes the foundation of the global carry trade.
- In the US, domestic unrest flared up across major cities over the weekend, reintroducing social risk to the dollar.
The result? The US Dollar (DXY) has broken down to 4-month lows, and Gold has smashed through $5,100/oz. The market is voting with its wallet: Capital is fleeing “Sovereign Risk” for Hard Assets and Strategic Growth.
We are entering the “Eye of the Storm” for data: The FOMC Meeting begins tomorrow, and the Mag 7 Earnings will define the next leg of the rally.
CI Markets signals a rotation out of the “Safety of Cash” and back into High-Beta Growth, Precious Metals, and Yield Shelter.
The Strategic Tech Play Forecast: Semiconductors (SMH) Trend Up 🔼
With geopolitical tension rising in Beijing and Tokyo, the “Chip Sovereignty” trade is back in focus. Monday’s news of Nvidia’s major investment in CoreWeave has reignited the AI capex narrative right before Intel (INTC) reports. CI Markets forecasts SMH to outperform this week. Investors are front-running the Mag 7 capex guidance, betting that regardless of political instability, the strategic AI infrastructure build-out will accelerate.
The “Chaos Hedge” Forecast: Silver (SLV) Bullish 🔼
Gold (GC=F) stole the headlines today by crossing $5,100, but Silver is the trade to watch. It has lagged its yellow cousin, but with the Dollar breaking down and the Japanese carry trade unwinding, silver continues to break out. CI Markets forecasts SLV to accelerate. In a full-blown “Instability Breakout,” Silver typically offers higher beta, offering a way to trade the chaos with more leverage than Gold.
The Domestic Shelter Forecast: Real Estate (XLRE) Moving Higher 🔼
Where do you hide if you want yield but are terrified of the sovereign bond market after Japan’s implosion? You own physical dirt. With the 10-Year Treasury yield easing to 4.21% today (as capital flees to safety), Real Estate is becoming the “Safe Haven” of choice. CI Markets forecasts XLRE to bid higher. It offers the perfect mix: A Hard Asset (inflation hedge) that sits outside the crosshairs of global geopolitics and the Japanese bond investors.
Conclusion
The signal for the week of Jan 26 is Acceleration. The convergence of the China Purge, the JGB Crisis, and US Unrest has broken the Dollar’s support. This is a green light for commodities and risk assets. We expect a week where “Instability” is the driver for Chips (SMH), Silver (SLV), and Real Estate (XLRE).
The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.