Why “Black Swan” Forecasts are Ignored: A $150B Case Study
March 5, 2026
In January 2020, we issued a warning to a $150B manufacturing client: the cost of a primary good was projected to skyrocket by 500% within 90 days. They dismissed the forecast as an impossible outlier. By April, costs had actually risen by 700%. As geopolitical tensions with Iran re-introduce extreme volatility to the market, we explore the ‘Disbelief Paradox’—why the most accurate Black Swan forecasts are the ones leadership teams are least likely to believe.