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Weekly Outlook: September 8, 2025

Weekly Outlook: September 8, 2025

The market is currently navigating without a compass. In the absence of a clear, overarching macro trend, investors are being forced to focus on the specific, and often conflicting, stories of individual companies and sectors. This week, we examine a market being pulled in three different directions, with mega-cap technology thriving, the broader macro environment waiting for a catalyst, and the core US economy showing signs of strain.

A Test for Mega-Cap Tech’s Leadership

While platform forecasts a positive week for Microsoft (MSFT), its weak close on Friday introduces a crucial tension. The stock’s powerful narrative, driven by leadership in enterprise AI and cloud computing, remains a key source of strength. However, the late day selling suggests investors are growing nervous. This sets up a critical test for the week ahead, can the company’s strong fundamental story overcome the market’s hesitation, or is the profit taking a sign of a broader loss of momentum for market leaders.

The Dollar Pauses for Breath

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is forecast to consolidate this week, perfectly capturing the market’s current state of macro uncertainty. After a strong run, the dollar’s pause suggests that investors are in a “wait and see” mode. The market is digesting a mix of economic signals and has no fresh catalyst to justify a major directional move. This period of indecision for the world’s reserve currency is the quiet backdrop against which more dramatic, specific stories are unfolding.

Financials Signal Core Economic Strain

In stark contrast to the optimism surrounding enterprise technology, the US financial sector (XLF) is showing clear signs of stress. Our forecast for this key sector is negative. The weakness in bank stocks points to persistent concerns over slowing loan growth and the compression of net interest margins. This provides a sobering counterpoint to the strength in tech, suggesting that the core US economy is not on the same upward trajectory.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is that broad market averages are telling an incomplete story. The real action is happening beneath the surface, where a powerful divergence is underway. The hesitation in a leader like Microsoft, the pause in the US dollar, and the weakness in the financial sector are not contradictory. They are all symptoms of a market of specifics, where success requires a granular focus on individual strengths and weaknesses rather than a monolithic view.


The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Weekly Outlook: September 1, 2025

Weekly Outlook: September 1, 2025

After the euphoria of last week’s dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, a more sober reality is beginning to set in. The market is now shifting its focus from central bank rhetoric to underlying economic and structural fundamentals, and it is finding reasons for concern. This week, we explore the challenges facing the bond market, the persistent weakness in China, and the impact on key sectors of the U.S. economy.

The Bond Market’s Sobering Message

In a clear sign that the market’s story is growing more complex, long term U.S. Treasury bonds are under pressure, with yields forecast to rise. While a dovish Fed should theoretically boost bond prices, the market is now grappling with other powerful forces. A heavy schedule of new government debt issuance is creating a supply glut, while underlying inflation remains stickier than many had hoped. This is a reminder that the path for interest rates is not determined by the Fed alone.

China’s Currency Signals Deeper Troubles

There is no clearer signal of China’s ongoing economic struggles than its currency. Our models forecast a continued upward march for the USDCNY pair, indicating persistent weakness in the Yuan. This is not just a market move. It is a reflection of deep seated problems in China’s property and financial sectors, and a sign that capital is seeking an exit. Beijing appears to be allowing a gradual depreciation to help its exporters, but a weakening currency is a major headwind for global investor confidence.

The Global Slowdown Reaches U.S. Industrials

The fundamental weakness seen abroad is now creating tangible headwinds for the U.S. economy, with the industrial sector looking particularly vulnerable. Our forecast for this key sector is negative. Industrials are highly sensitive to the global business cycle, and the persistent economic malaise in China and Europe is beginning to weigh on new orders and international sales. This serves as a crucial reality check on the durability of last week’s equity rally.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is that fundamentals are reasserting themselves. While last week’s rally was driven by a shift in Fed sentiment, the market is now being forced to confront the less optimistic realities of heavy bond supply and a genuine global growth slowdown. The alignment of these cautious signals from the bond market, foreign exchange, and key equity sectors suggests the path forward may be more challenging than the post Jackson Hole euphoria implied.


The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Audio and Podcasts

BBC Business Matters: The USA gets set to charge millions of parcels

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172zrs7fmvz1m8

Tony Nash joins BBC Business Matters to discuss the demnimis exemption for US imports; US GDP, the Fed and Lisa Cook; Korean shipyard investment in the US, etc.

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Corporate Finance Blog

New MIT Paper: Cut Finance Oversight Time by 40%: From Compliance to Budgeting

New MIT Paper: Cut Finance Oversight Time by 40%: From Compliance to Budgeting

Financial leaders today face a difficult balance. On one side is the familiar world of compliance with annual audits, quarterly reports, and reconciliations. On the other is a fast-moving reality of complex supply chains, volatile markets, and rapid capital flows. A recent academic paper highlights the growing tension between these two worlds. Traditional audit and planning processes are no longer enough to keep up.

The Core Challenge: Oversight Is Falling Behind

The paper highlights three major risks for finance teams:

  • Information Overload. The volume of financial and operational data overwhelms review processes. Risks are buried until it is too late.

  • Lagging Oversight. Audits and compliance checks remain backward-looking. Anomalies often appear only after they have distorted results.

  • Systemic Fragility. Complex reporting systems create space for both errors and manipulation. These issues are often uncovered slowly.

For Controllers and FP&A teams, these risks are not academic. They are daily challenges that undermine trust with executives, investors, and regulators. Markets punish uncertainty, and delays in oversight can quickly damage valuation.

Why This Matters for Controllers and FP&A

Controllers must ensure accuracy and compliance. FP&A must guide strategy with forecasts and plans. Both functions face the same obstacle: delayed insight.

  • Deloitte found that 70% of finance leaders rank manual reconciliations as their top time drain.

  • Gartner estimates that finance teams spend up to 40% of their time collecting and validating data instead of analyzing it.

  • Hackett Group benchmarks show that inaccurate or stale forecasts cost companies 6–8% of annual revenue.

Controllers often uncover irregularities after the fact. FP&A teams frequently base forecasts on incomplete data. Together, this widens the gap between compliance and foresight.

A Shift Toward Continuous Oversight

The paper calls for a new model of oversight. Finance must adopt what can be called dynamic assurance. Instead of static point-in-time reviews, oversight must be continuous.

  • Proactive Anomaly Detection. Reduce the time to uncover irregularities from weeks or months to hours or days.

  • Continuous AI-driven Forecasting. Stress-test assumptions quickly. Accenture reports this can cut planning cycles by 30 to 50 percent.

  • Integrated Intelligence. Connect oversight with operational data in real time. McKinsey finds this can increase forecast accuracy by 20 to 25 percent.

This evolution does not replace audits or compliance. It strengthens them with always-on intelligence and gives finance leaders more time to analyze and guide strategy.

Technology’s Role in Closing the Gap

Technology now delivers measurable improvements.

  • For Controllers, machine learning tools can reduce false positives in anomaly detection by up to 60 percent. This frees staff to focus on critical issues.

  • For FP&A, predictive analytics and rolling forecasts can shrink planning cycles from six weeks to two. At the same time, accuracy improves in volatile markets.

The payoff is clear. Faster detection means fewer surprises. More accurate forecasts mean better allocation of resources. Finance teams that move to continuous oversight earn credibility with executives, boards, and investors.

AuditFlow helps Controllers surface anomalies faster and with higher accuracy, turning weeks of review into hours of detection.
BudgetFlow gives FP&A leaders AI-powered forecasting and scenario analysis, cutting planning cycles and improving accuracy. Both tools support the shift the paper calls for. Finance can move beyond compliance and into foresight.


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Audio and Podcasts

BFM: Investors Climbing The Wall of Worry?

Investors Climbing The Wall of Worry?

https://www.bfm.my/content/podcast/investors-climbing-the-wall-of-worryURL

Markets continue to inch up even though investors were slightly disappointed with Nvidia’s guidance. We speak to Tony Nash, CEO from Complete Intelligence as to whether this rally is sustainable. We also ask if markets in Hong Kong and China still have upside and what those catalysts are.

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Newsletter

Weekly Outlook: August 25, 2025

Weekly Outlook: August 25, 2025

A surprisingly dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at its Jackson Hole symposium has completely reset the market’s narrative for the weeks ahead. Fears of a “higher for longer” interest rate policy have been replaced by a wave of optimism, unleashing a powerful “risk on” rally. This week, we examine how this new sentiment is lifting the broad market, reigniting growth stocks, and reviving the outlook for the global economy.

The Green Light for Equities

The S&P 500 is set for a strong rally this week as the market celebrates a significant dovish shift from the Federal Reserve. The removal of a key headwind, namely the threat of further rate hikes, has given investors a clear green light to re-engage with equities. Our models show broad based positive momentum, suggesting the bullishness seen on Friday has room to run as investors reposition for a more favorable policy environment.

Growth Stocks Lead the Relief Rally

Nowhere is the relief from the Fed’s dovish pivot felt more acutely than in high growth technology stocks. Our forecast for Snowflake shows particularly strong upward momentum. These long duration assets, whose valuations are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, were under significant pressure in the run up to Jackson Hole. With that pressure now released, they are positioned to lead the market higher as capital rotates back into the growth trade.

Dr. Copper Signals Renewed Optimism

The bullish sentiment is not confined to equities. The price of copper, a key barometer of global economic health, has also inflected to the upside. A dovish Fed is a powerful catalyst for “Dr. Copper” for two reasons. It lowers the probability of a deep, demand crushing recession, and it typically weakens the U.S. dollar. The forecast for rising copper prices suggests the market is now less concerned about a global slowdown.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is the immense power of a Federal Reserve pivot. The shift to a dovish stance has provided a synchronized lift to risk assets across the board. The rally in the broad market, the outperformance of growth stocks, and the renewed strength in industrial commodities all point to a single, powerful conclusion, for the short term, the market’s primary headwind has been removed.


The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Audio and Podcasts

MONEY TALK – Friday 22 August 2025

MONEY TALK - Friday 22 August 2025

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/peter-lewis-money-talk-friday-22-august-2025/id1677731892?i=1000723028166URL

On Friday’s “Money Talk” podcast, Peter Lewis is joined by Tony Nash, the Founder of Complete Intelligence, and Francis Lun, the CEO of GEO Securities.

Topics: Jerome Powell’s speech Jackson Hole – to cut or not to cut, the US & EU role in Ukraine, and tech stock valuations.

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Newsletter

Weekly Outlook: Aug 18, 2025

The market is currently suffering from a fractured personality. There is no single, unifying trend. Instead, we are witnessing three distinct investor behaviors play out simultaneously, a flight from risk, a rotation into safety, and a speculative hunt for growth. This week, we examine three assets that perfectly capture this complex and indecisive environment.

The Flight from Chinese Equities

The sharp downward forecast for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index clearly illustrates the “flight from risk” mentality. Investor confidence in Chinese markets is deteriorating rapidly. This pessimism is driven by persistent troubles in China’s property sector and a growing belief that Beijing’s stimulus measures are not enough to restore economic momentum. For global investors, the region is increasingly seen as a source of uncertainty to be avoided.

Investors Seek Shelter in Staples

While investors are selling off international assets, they are not abandoning the market entirely. Instead, many are seeking shelter in defensive sectors, with our models showing stable gains for Consumer Staples. This rotation into companies that sell essential goods like food and household products is a classic defensive move. It shows that investors are prioritizing capital preservation and earnings stability over growth in the face of economic uncertainty.

The Hunt for Growth Tries to Defy the Trend

In stark contrast to the cautious mood, a speculative hunt for growth continues in specific pockets of the market, tech in particular. This is a story driven not by broad economic optimism, but by a powerful narrative centered on artificial intelligence. It shows that a compelling can still attract significant capital, but Tech will continue to face headwinds this week.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is that “the market” is not one thing. We are seeing a clear fracture in investor sentiment, leading to a simultaneous retreat from risk, a rotation into safety, and a speculative chase for growth. This lack of a unified direction suggests a period of heightened volatility and underscores the need for a highly selective approach, as broad market trends offer little guidance.


The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.