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Author: tn@completeintel.com

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A court could strike down Trump’s tariffs—and blow a hole in the U.S. budget

"Liberation day" tariffs face repeal
"Liberation day" tariffs face repeal

Will new US tariffs be struck down in court? It could go either way, but the administration has options.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-court-could-strike-down-trump-s-tariffs-and-blow-a-hole-in-the-u-s-budget/ar-AA1JOVaw

Tony Nash, founder and CEO of Complete Intelligence, expressed cautious concern about the potential removal of the “Liberation Day” tariffs, implemented by President Trump on April 2, 2025, under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). While he doesn’t consider their immediate repeal likely, Nash highlighted that such a move is not inconceivable, given the tariffs’ role in triggering a global market crash and facing legal challenges, including a stay by the U.S. Court of Appeals.
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News Articles

China’s Drone Exports Under US Scrutiny Amid Russia War

China’s drone exports face growing U.S. scrutiny amid the Russia
China’s drone exports face growing U.S. scrutiny amid the Russia

China’s Drone Exports Under US Scrutiny Amid Russia War

https://www.ntd.com/chinas-drone-exports-under-us-scrutiny-amid-russia-war_1082511.htmlURL

Tony Nash, founder and CEO of Complete Intelligence, expressed skepticism about the likelihood of the U.S. implementing secondary sanctions against China for buying Russian oil. While he doesn’t consider them probable, he emphasized that they are not inconceivable.

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Newsletter

Weekly Outlook: Aug 4, 2025

Weekly Outlook: Aug 4, 2025

The narrative this week shifts from simple market jitters to tangible signs of a global economic slowdown. Key indicators across industrial commodities, major international equity markets, and crucial U.S. sectors are now flashing warning signs in unison. We examine three of these signals, each telling a piece of a larger story about mounting economic pressure.

Dr. Copper’s Negative Diagnosis

Copper is delivering a bearish diagnosis for the global economy. Our models show a continued downward trajectory for this week. As a critical input for everything from construction to electronics, falling copper demand is a direct and powerful signal of a slowdown in global manufacturing and industrial activity.

Stress Mounts in Europe’s Industrial Heartland

The economic pessimism is particularly acute in Europe, with Germany’s DAX index poised for a significant decline. As an index heavily weighted towards industrial and export oriented companies, the DAX is exceptionally sensitive to global trade and energy costs. The strong negative forecast suggests that investors are bracing for a period of severe economic stress in Europe’s largest economy.

U.S. Financials Feel the Pressure

The story of a slowdown is not confined to overseas markets or raw materials. The U.S. financial sector is also showing signs of strain. Our models point to a sharp drop for financial stocks. This reflects growing investor concern that a cooling economy will translate into weaker loan demand and deteriorating credit quality. With a flattening yield curve also pressuring bank profitability, the sector faces a challenging outlook.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is the correlated nature of the warning signs. The weakness is not isolated. When industrial metals, a major European equity index, and the U.S. financial sector are all pointing lower, it paints a cohesive picture of a broad based global slowdown. Investors are likely to shift their focus towards capital preservation as these concerns move from the background to the forefront.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Corporate Finance Blog

How Should FP&A Be Using AI?

How Should FP&A Be Using AI?

Key takeaways

  • AI gives FP&A teams more time to think, not just calculate

  • Small wins like faster variance analysis build confidence without major disruption

  • FP&A shouldn’t fear AI—like Excel before it, it’s a tool to amplify expertise

  • Augmentation, not automation, is the right entry point for AI in finance

  • Adoption starts with time savings, not transformation

Why FP&A Is Naturally Cautious About AI

FP&A teams are often the most trusted thinkers in any organization. They’ve built their credibility on precision, self-reliance, and a deep command of financial models. And they’ve done it largely with Excel, ERP exports, and old-school logic.

So when AI shows up and suggests doing the thinking for them, there’s bound to be hesitation.

Unlike calculators or spreadsheets—where every formula can be inspected—AI can feel like handing over the wheel. Even if the destination is the same, not knowing exactly how you got there can be unsettling.

Start Small, Prove Value Early

AI adoption in finance shouldn’t start with a vision of mass automation. Instead, it should start like Excel once did: as a productivity tool. The best AI deployments begin with narrow, measurable wins that make an analyst’s life easier.

Examples:

  • Auto-clean ERP data to eliminate rework
  • Suggest variance drivers without digging through a dozen pivot tables
  • Generate base-case forecast scenarios with one click
  • Allow CFOs to ask questions like “What’s driving margin compression?” and get answers in seconds

 

These aren’t revolutionary. But they’re time-saving, trust-building, and momentum-generating.

A Practical Path for FP&A Teams

  1. Pick a visible pain point—think recurring manual work like monthly forecast updates
  2. Implement a narrow AI tool that complements your workflow (not overhauls it)
  3. Compare results side by side with the old method
  4. Measure time saved, not just accuracy improved
  5. Share wins across the team to shift the mindset from threat to value

The goal isn’t to turn finance into data scientists. It’s to free up time so smart people can do smarter work.

What Changes – and What Doesn’t

AI doesn’t change the fundamental value of FP&A: being trusted advisors to leadership. What it changes is how quickly and confidently they can deliver insight. The best analysts won’t be the ones who write the best macros. They’ll be the ones who can explain the story the AI is telling—and challenge it when necessary.

In short, AI isn’t the driver. It’s cruise control. FP&A is still at the wheel.

FAQs

Q1: Will AI replace FP&A roles?
No. It replaces repetitive tasks—data prep, reforecasting, reconciliations—not the thinking, interpretation, or business judgment.

Q2: What’s the first thing we should automate?
Look for low-risk, high-friction tasks: data cleanup, variance flagging, or baseline forecast generation.

Q3: Do we have to change platforms or workflows?
Not at all. Good AI tools integrate directly into your current environment—Excel, Power BI, or ERP dashboards.

More about AuditFlow
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Audio and Podcasts

No Cut, But Fed Faces Internal Tug-of-War

Tony Nash on BFM for July Fed decision
Tony Nash on BFM for July Fed decision

No Cut, But Fed Faces Internal Tug-of-War

https://www.bfm.my/content/podcast/no-cut-but-fed-faces-internal-tug-of-war

Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, analyses the Fed’s July rate pause, shedding light on emerging divisions within the committee and the underlying forces behind the robust 2QGDP performance that came in at 3%.

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Corporate Finance Blog

What Are the Best AI Tools to Detect Financial Anomalies During Audits?

What Are the Best AI Tools to Detect Financial Anomalies During Audits?

In a nutshell

  • AI detects 90%+ of high-risk transactions humans miss

  • Real-time flagging means continuous auditing, not annual sampling

  • Leading platforms: AuditFlow, MindBridge, AppZen, HighRadius

  • Typical time saved per audit: hundreds staff-hours on a $1B revenue company

  • Integrates with SAP, Oracle, Microsoft Dynamics out of the box

The anomaly-detection landscape (2025)

VendorPrimary strengthIdeal user
AuditFlowDeep ERP, SCM, CRM analysis & explainable MLSmall, mid-market & large enterprises
MindBridgeRisk scoring on GL & sub-ledgers GartnerAudit/insurance firms
AppZenAI spend monitoring & T&E complianceGlobal shared-service centers
HighRadiusCash-flow & AR anomaly alerts Stack AITreasury & AR teams

How anomaly-detection AI works

  1. Data ingestion: Pulls millions of GL lines or AP invoices.

  2. Feature engineering: Creates thousands of statistical & relational features (e.g., Benford scores, employee-vendor matches).

  3. ML & rules engine: Unsupervised clustering plus business-rule overlays catch both novel and known risks.

  4. Risk scoring & workflow: Items above threshold route to accountants for review.

Implementation tips

  • Start small by importing the last two to four years of accounts data.

  • Embed in workflow so accountants review in the same UI.

  • Iterate monthly; models self-learn as new risks emerge.

  • [Optional] Tune thresholds with historical anomaly or outlier cases.

Value metrics

  • % high-risk items auto-cleared vs. false positives

  • Manual testing hours eliminated

  • Detected dollar value and number of accounts of misstatements

  • Reduced internal audit costs

FAQs

  1. Will AI replace auditors?
    No; it augments them by prioritizing risky items.

  2. How long to deploy?
    Most teams see first results within two weeks after data connection.

  3. Can I customize rules?
    Yes. AuditFlow’s rule builder supports custom thresholds and regex check

More about AuditFlow
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Corporate Finance Blog

How Can I Use AI to Improve My Corporate Budgeting Process?

How Can I Use AI to Improve My Corporate Budgeting Process?

Key takeaways

  • 30-50% faster cycle times when AI automates data consolidation

  • Scenario models update in minutes, not days

  • Forecast accuracy gains of 20-25% vs. manual methods, according to EY

  • CFOs repurpose staff toward strategic analysis instead of low-value wrangling

  • AuditFlow links directly to ERP data, enabling continuous, self-learning budget forecasts

Why legacy budgeting strains finance

Traditional annual or quarterly budgets rely on spreadsheets, disconnected source systems, and late data.
The result: re-work, surprise variances, and decisions made on stale numbers.

Where AI adds tangible value

AI capabilityBudgeting benefit
Data ingestion & cleansingConnects ERP, CRM, HRIS in real-time; eliminates manual imports
Predictive modelingGenerates rolling forecasts that learn from prior performance and errors
Scenario generationInstantly answers “what-if” questions on FX, demand, or cost shocks
Variance root-cause analysisFlags drivers at account, cost-center, or SKU level

EY’s 2025 FP&A survey shows teams using AI spend 18% less time on data prep and achieve 25% higher forecast accuracy.

Implementation roadmap

  1. Standardize your chart of accounts so ML can map historical data.

  2. Feed clean actuals; AuditFlow’s connectors automate this step.

  3. Define driver-based models (volume, price, mix).

  4. Pilot rolling forecasts on one business unit; compare accuracy.

  5. Scale enterprise-wide and embed AI variance alerts into monthly close.

Measuring success

  • Cycle time to first budget draft (Faster Delivery)

  • % of forecast variance > ±5% (More Accurate)

  • Hours shifted from data prep to analysis (Less Work)

  • Net present value of decisions made earlier (Less Risk)

FAQs

Q1: How long to see ROI?
Most finance teams reach payback in 3-6 months once rolling forecasts replace annual budgets.

Q2: Do I need a data lake?
No. Modern tools connect directly to your ERP and data warehouse APIs.

Q3: How secure is AI budgeting?
AuditFlow uses SOC 2 Type II–certified cloud hosting.

More about AuditFlow
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Newsletter

Weekly Outlook: July 28, 2025

Weekly Outlook: July 28, 2025

The focus of global markets is shifting this week. While U.S. data remains important, the most significant catalysts are now emerging from abroad. A potential policy pivot from the Bank of Japan and tentative signs of life in emerging markets are creating new opportunities and risks. We dissect a pivotal currency pair, a broad global equity index, and a key sector reacting to new economic fears.

The Yen at a Turning Point

The Japanese Yen is showing significant weakness against the U.S. dollar, with our models forecasting a steady decline in the USDJPY pair. This move is less about dollar weakness and more about a fundamental repricing of the Bank of Japan’s stance. For years the BoJ has been the world’s most dovish central bank, but speculation is now intense that a shift in its policy is approaching. A move away from its ultra easy policy would have profound implications for global capital flows, and this currency pair is where that battle is being fought.

A Glimmer of Hope for Emerging Markets

Emerging market equities are poised for a week of modest but stable gains. This newfound stability is supported by two key developments, a leveling off in the U.S. dollar’s ascent which eases financial conditions for these economies, and renewed optimism for stimulus measures in China. While significant risks remain, our forecast suggests a potential rotation back into a deeply undervalued asset class, one that global investors are watching closely for signs of a durable recovery.

Energy Stocks Confront Slowdown Fears

The energy sector, a recent market leader, is set for a significant pullback this week. This reversal is driven by a growing concern that demand destruction from a global economic slowdown will now outweigh previous supply constraints. The forecast suggests that after a strong run, energy stocks are vulnerable to a repricing as markets begin to focus more on declining future consumption than on current inventory levels. This makes the sector a key barometer for global growth expectations.

Conclusion

This week’s key takeaway is the broadening of market narratives beyond U.S. borders. The policy decisions in Tokyo and the economic recovery in Beijing are becoming just as critical as pronouncements from the Federal Reserve. This complex global interplay, coupled with rising fears of a growth slowdown, suggests that investors must now maintain a wider and more dynamic field of vision.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Audio and Podcasts

2025 07 21 BBC Business Matters

BBC Business Matters with Tony Nash

BBC Business Matters: Trump announces US trade deal with Japan

Complete Intelligence CEO Tony Nash guest hosts BBC Business Matters with Roger Hearing.

President Donald Trump has announced a major trade deal with Japan, introducing a 15% U.S. tariff on Japanese goods. The news comes as the Philippines and Indonesia join Vietnam in securing tariff reductions from Washington.

Plus, a tough road ahead for U.S. car-makers grappling with global trade tensions.

And could modern science finally crack the age-old quest to turn other metals into gold?

Stream the show here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172zrs5m98whrw