This podcast was first and originally published by Peter Lewis’ Money Talk. Find the Substack here:
https://peterlewismoneytalk.substack.com/p/peter-lewis-money-talk-thursday-4-be5
Topics discussed:
- The upcoming Taiwan election and its potential impact on Taiwan-China relations, with observations on the evolving stance of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
- The potential weakening of democratic institutions globally, influenced by factors such as economic success, illiberalism, and the impact of the pandemic.
- The involvement and engagement of young people in politics are considered, with emphasis on their potential interest in national elections and the impact on their lives.
- The possibility of a Trump presidency, its potential implications, and the dynamics within the Republican party are also discussed, including the potential influence of the primaries.
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Transcript
Peter Lewis
I’m joined now by Tony Nash, who is founder of Complete Intelligence over in Texas in the USA. Very good morning, Tony. Happy New year to you.
Tony Nash
Hi, Peter. Happy New year.
Peter Lewis
Thank you. Looking forward to 2024. Lots of things to talk about, but I think one of the things that’s going to be interesting is elections this year is going to be dominated by elections in a way in which we haven’t seen before. Eight of the ten most populous countries in the world are going to hold elections. More than 70 countries, about 2 billion people, half the adult population of the globe, is going to have the chance to vote in 2024. It’s a record for one year. This is going to be pretty important, isn’t it? And we got some pretty significant ones, maybe starting with one in just a few days time in Taiwan.
Tony Nash
Right. Yeah, it’s a really interesting year. And the Taiwan election is also very interesting with the DPPKMT and some other things happening there. I think it’ll be interesting to see if there’s a clear winner and who it is. It’s also interesting to see the mainland’s discussion around the Taiwan election, too, which they do this every election. Right. So here in the US, there’s a lot made about the mainland discussion around Taiwan, but this is something that we see every election cycle.
Peter Lewis
It seems to be, though, the rhetoric seems to be ratcheting up this time, doesn’t it? Because this is going to be now, if the DPP wins, the Democratic Progressive Party, it’s going to be their third victory in a row, really broke the stranglehold that the KMT used to have on elections in Taiwan. So it feels like this one in particular is going to be very significant and is going to have some implications for markets as well, as. Well, of course, as relations between Taiwan and China. Mainland China.
Tony Nash
Yeah, it could be significant. I don’t necessarily get the sense that the DPP is as kind of polar opposite of, say, KMT nationalism as they have been in the past. I think the DPP’s moderated just a little bit. Of course, they don’t want unification, but they’ve moderated just a little bit. I think they’ve come a little bit more to the center. And so I think that’s why they’re appealing, and that’s why it’s possible that they have a third term. I think it makes the mainland a little bit uncomfortable. But again, I think this is not something that is completely unique, although it’s ratcheting up. The other thing to remember, and I know your listeners in Asia will know this. But Taiwan has really only had direct elections since the 1990s. And so we hear a lot about kind of the democracy in Taiwan versus the mainland, but there really hasn’t been direct elections for more than 30 years. So it’s really interesting to see how Taiwan has really gravitated to that and how they do elections incredibly well.
Peter Lewis
I mean, these are proper democratic elections, aren’t they? Unlike maybe in some of the countries that are going to hold elections this year where it’s either already a foregone conclusion or do you get the feeling, though, that maybe there is a bit of a recession going on in democracies around the world, that maybe there’s this spreading sort of illiberalism and a weakening of democracy around the world?
Tony Nash
Well, I think a couple of factors have played into that. I think the economic success that we’ve seen in the mainland over the last 30 years has really contributed to, say, I would say maybe an academic and maybe media and other, say, political institutional view that maybe a less liberal approach. And we could even look at Singapore, where people look at a potentially less liberal approach as one that maybe gets more economic success. At least that’s some of the perception. I don’t necessarily think that democracy is weakening, but I do think that those ideas. Does less liberal governance allow more, say, success or economic success or I think a central government strategy? People complain a lot here in the US about the US not having a strategy. I think illiberalism lends itself to having a central strategy. I think one of the other contributing factors is the pandemic, quite frankly. I mean, I think a lot of social liberties were taken away from people for a period of time. And I think it’s driven a lot of maybe thought and or paranoia about growing illiberalism.
Peter Lewis
I mean, I’m thinking maybe one example this year is going to be India, obviously, elections coming up in India as well. That seems to be one country where there does seem to be a weakening of sort of democratic institutions despite the fact that this is still the biggest democracy in the world.
Tony Nash
Yeah, it is a big democracy. The BJP is very, very popular. And it’ll be very interesting to see what happens in India because we do have a very vocal media in India. We have a very vocal population. And so I think as there are or if there are issues around the elections, I think we’ll hear about them. And I don’t think people will be quiet about it.
Peter Lewis
And then, of course, we have some other key elections going on around the world as well. I mean, one of the things that I’m wondering is about young people. I mean, they’re a key voting group in many of these elections, probably in all of these elections that are going on, do you get the feeling that maybe young people are becoming more disengaged? They just don’t feel that democracy is working for them, that elections are making any big difference for them, which is why we’re seeing maybe some of these sort of radical leaders win, populist leaders win in places such as Argentina.
Tony Nash
Well, I don’t know. So here in the US, we have the boomers, Gen X, millennials, and then Gen Z. I have three kids that are Gen Z, and I find them, the discussions that they have about politics are pretty informed. I wouldn’t say very informed, but pretty informed. Their friends who talk about politics, they’re pretty informed. Again, they’re getting a lot from social media, but I think they do have the opportunity to dig into issues. And so I think there’s always an observation from older generations that kind of younger people don’t care as much about politics, but the fact is they’re not paying as much in taxes. They may or may not own property. They may or may not have kids attending a school. So they just may not be as interested in particularly some of those local issues. Right. But I wouldn’t necessarily say that we’re seeing, I would say more extreme candidates because of, say, the Gen Z population. I think it’s a balance of, say, here in the US, it’s a balance of baby boomers. And when we look at the disposable income that people can put toward campaigns here in the US, it’s really overwhelmingly the baby boomers who lend to campaigns that then become extreme.
Tony Nash
So I don’t know what it looks like in other countries, but I know that the level of disposable income and the giving to campaigns here in the US is largely done by baby boomers.
Peter Lewis
And when your kids discuss elections, do they feel that the outcome is likely to make any difference to them personally, to their livelihoods, to their chances of getting a better job or a higher paying job?
Tony Nash
I think potentially, yes, I think they do. One of the things here in the US, obviously, we have local elections and then we have state elections, and then we have national elections. The national elections are what gets most of the attention. But the things that have the most, the races that have the most to do with them getting jobs really are the local and state elections. Is a state more appealing economically? Is there a regulation locally? These sorts of things, but they’re paying more attention to the national elections, of course, because that’s what’s in media. But I think they find the local elections pretty boring, quite frankly. And so they are paying attention to the national elections. And I think they do see that as an opportunity for them. Again, they’re not incredibly well informed, but I think they do see the national elections in terms of social policy and economic policy as something that will impact their lives.
Peter Lewis
And, of course, we’ve got to mention the US election coming up in November. Do we have any sense of what a potential Trump presidency is going to look like?
Tony Nash
That’s a big assumption, Peter. I don’t know. I think there is more of a competition on the republican side than we’re led to believe. I don’t know. It’s probably going to be Trump, but I think it’s possible that there is a different candidate. I don’t know exactly who would be, but I think there’s more of a competition on the republican side than some of the polls today are showing because what we’re seeing are a lot of national polls, and we don’t necessarily vote nationally in the US. We vote at a state level, which awards representatives who vote proportionally to the number of representatives that we have in the. So I think it’ll be more of a contest than we’re led to believe. Now, if Trump is know, I’m not really sure because the last time around, he was not a great administrator. He definitely speaks from the bully pulpit, but he’s not a great administrator. And I think many people who are, say, middle aged or younger in the US look at the current president Biden, and they look at Trump as a potential candidate, and they’re both 80 years old, give or take. And I think the concern from a lot of voters is they want a president who has to live with the consequences of their own policies.
Tony Nash
So I think Americans are looking at these older candidates who are at the extreme end of electable and saying, look, these guys, I’m not really sure that they should govern because they’re really too old to live with the consequences of their policies. So that’s why I think we may see more of a contest on the republican side than we’re being led to believe right now.
Peter Lewis
Mean, on the Republicans. I mean, there are candidates, aren’t there, who are quite considerably younger than Trump who could present an alternative? I’m thinking of people like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis. They’re all sort of candidates who would have to live with the consequences of their decisions.
Tony Nash
That’s right. And so until we start seeing some of the primaries come in with Iowa, New Hampshire, and some of these early primaries, I don’t know that we’ll necessarily understand what people on the ground are thinking. And let’s say, for example, Trump doesn’t win Iowa. Well, we’ll hear, well, Iowa is not really important. And then if he doesn’t win New Hampshire, we’ll hear him say that, well, New Hampshire is not really important, these sorts of things. But I do believe that as we start to see some of these early primaries come in, other Americans will get a view of what those early voters are thinking, because these candidates have spent a lot of time on the ground in Iowa, in New Hampshire and other places. And so they’re really reflective or starting to reflect what some of these people on the ground are hearing and seeing.
Peter Lewis
And if Trump were to win, I mean, the way he’s talking at the moment, it sounds like his presidency is going to be quite a vindictive one. It’s going to be about taking revenge on all the people he feels have slighted him over the last sort of four years or so.
Tony Nash
Yeah, I think it’s really interesting to see the mood in 2016 was very different from what it is now. And the mood in 2016 was that people just wanted to see some sort of change. They felt like their voice wasn’t heard. At least this is on the republican side. Right? They really wanted to see change. I think Trump today is an angrier candidate and a more vindictive candidate than he was in 2016. In 2016, he came across as frustrated but constructive. He now comes across as vindictive and angry. And I don’t know how many people that’s going to appeal to. I know there are a lot of frustrated voters, but I’m not really sure that having that angry of a message can really attract the voters that he needs.
Peter Lewis
And he’s also coming across as being fairly illiberal as well. He’s going to tear down some democratic institutions that have been around for a long time and doesn’t seem to respect some of those institutions.
Tony Nash
Well, we’ll see. I mean, does he have the power to do see a lot? We’ve seen a lot of, say, directive government from the executive office. We saw it under Obama, we saw it under Trump. We see it under Biden, where these things are then taken to the federal courts and they’re struck down. So can he actually disassemble some of those institutions? I think it would be really hard.
Peter Lewis
Well, look, Tony, it’s going to be a fascinating year. Look forward to talking to you more about some of these issues as the year develops. As we said, Taiwan’s elections coming up in just a few days time. So thank you very much for your contribution this morning. Have a happy new year. Look forward to speaking to you.
Tony Nash
Thank you, Peter. Happy New Year.
Peter Lewis
That’s Tony Nash, who is the founder of Complete Intelligence.