Complete Intelligence

AI in Corporate Finance

Explore how Artificial Intelligence is transforming corporate finance. This series delivers expert insights on AI-driven forecasting, scenario planning, risk management, and financial analytics. Each note helps CFOs and finance teams understand trends, overcome adoption challenges, and apply AI tools effectively.

Why “Black Swan” Forecasts are Ignored: A $150B Case Study

In January 2020, we issued a warning to a $150B manufacturing client: the cost of a primary good was projected to skyrocket by 500% within 90 days. They dismissed the forecast as an impossible outlier. By April, costs had actually risen by 700%. As geopolitical tensions with Iran re-introduce extreme volatility to the market, we explore the ‘Disbelief Paradox’—why the most accurate Black Swan forecasts are the ones leadership teams are least likely to believe.

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