Weekly Outlook: Feb 9, 2026
The “Warsh Pivot” has shifted from a shock to a stabilization factor.
After the initial cratering of the “debasement trade” (Gold and Bitcoin) following the nomination of Kevin Warsh, the markets are entering a week of cautious recalibration. The initial sell-off post-nomination appears to be finding a floor, as seen in today’s reclaim of the psychological $5,000 mark in Gold and a cooling of the 10-year yield volatility.
While uncertainty remains high regarding the administration’s tariff implementation, the market is voting for “Growth with Credibility.” CI Markets signals a rotation into High-Conviction Tech, Energy Security, and Defensive Quality as capital seeks shelter from the next round of binary policy headlines.
1. The Relentless AI Capex Cycle Forecast: NVIDIA (NVDA) Trend Up 🔼
While Fed Chairs and tariff regimes dominate the headlines, the fundamental demand for compute remains a constant. Monday’s 3.3% surge in Nvidia following the news of its strategic expansion into private cloud infrastructure (CoreWeave) confirms that the AI trade is decoupling from generic macro volatility. CI Markets forecasts NVDA to trend higher this week as it continues to lead the earnings momentum.
2. The Geopolitical Energy Floor Forecast: Energy Select Sector (XLE) Moving Higher 🔼
Geopolitics remains the “ghost in the machine.” Between the ongoing military purge in Beijing and the logistical reconstruction in Venezuela, energy security has returned to the forefront of institutional positioning. CI Markets forecasts XLE to move higher this week. The sector is increasingly acting as both a hard asset hedge against Dollar instability and a play on a global industrial recovery that the new Fed leadership seems intent on supporting.
3. The Flight to Quality Refuge Forecast: Consumer Staples (XLP) Trending Up ↗️
In a week defined by “Wait and See” (ahead of Friday’s inflation data), “boring is beautiful.” As the market digests the potential for structural inflation from tariffs, capital is rotating toward companies with the pricing power to weather the storm. CI Markets forecasts XLP to trend higher as investors prioritize the reliable cash flows of staples over more policy-sensitive cyclicals.
Conclusion
The signal for the week of February 9 is Recalibration. The market has survived the initial shock of the Warsh nomination and the tariff bombshell; now it is looking for a floor. The Wildcard: Watch for a midweek announcement from the White House. President Trump has signaled a desire to support the “American Investor.” Any move to clarify tariff exemptions or specific incentives to floor the recent downfall in metals and tech could spark a violent short-squeeze.
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