Growing out of stagflation, Fed operating impact & Brazil Risk: The Week Ahead – 7 Nov 2022
Can we grow out of this Stagflationary muddle? We also talked about the impact of the whiplash in interest rates on operators, on the people who run companies and how they run those companies in this type of environment. And then finally, Brazil. We’ve had a big political change in Brazil and it seems more meaningful than we’re being kind of told.
China risks, tech earnings, and crude stockpiling: The Week Ahead – 31 Oct 2022
How are foreign companies dealing with the political changes in China? Or what should they be paying attention to? On the risk side, we’re looking at tech earnings and the impact that tech earnings will have on other earnings and headcount reductions and other things over the next few months. And we’re also looking at crude oil inventories and refined product inventories. They’re way below averages. And we want to hear from Tracy as to what’s going on.
Nasdaq Breaks 3-Day Winning Streak
Investors were not impressed by results from Meta and Alphabet leading to a sell-off in tech stocks on Wall Street. We speak to Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, to find out how results from Apple and Amazon set to come out soon might impact overall market sentiment.
The Federal Reserve Was Slow To React But Inflation Is Real This Time
All eyes will be on the US CPI data as it gives us an indication of the quantum and pace of rate hikes. But is the Federal Reserve too slow to see if inflation is coming down when there is anecdotal evidence of slowing car and home sales? Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence tells the BFM.
US Policy for Small Businesses: The Week Ahead – 17 Oct 2022
The US administration just implemented a policy to move gig/independent workers to employee status. How does this hurt small businesses? Carol Roth, our special guest for this episode, discussed that in this Week Ahead. Albert helped us look at the Fed and is the dovish Fed is dead? We’ve known this for some time, and there were hopes for a pivot, but that seems to be over. Tracy also talked about diesel inventories, which she had talked about for a very long time. She helped us dig into that in this episode.
Global recession risk rises as IMF lowers growth forecast
The IMF says the risk of a global recession has increased as it lowers its growth forecast for the coming year. The IMF says the risk of a global recession has increased as it lowers its growth forecast for the coming year.
Systemic Risks: The Week Ahead – 10 Oct 2022
First, we looked at systemic risk in the case for hard assets with Simon. When we look at recent events like the BOE intervention in the long-term gilt market, where does he think the next systemic risks could come from? Is it developed more market (European) debt? Next, we went into a little bit on OPEC cuts with Tracy. OPEC cut supply by 2m BPD. And then finally, we took our first look at US midterms. Democrats now control both House and Senate. That’s a huge advantage for Joe Biden.
Inflation in Asia and the US: The Week Ahead – 3 Oct 2022
In this episode, Mike walked us through the Asian contagion for inflation. Also, given where USDCNY has been over the past week, how vulnerable is China? Are they more concerned about inflation or export competitiveness? Sam sent a couple of wonderful newsletters about central bank responses to inflation last week. The Fed seems – and is – unrelenting in their response, regardless of what happens with UK gilts. And then we looked at Meta’s move to freeze hiring and their warning about layoffs. Is that a broader signal for tech?
UK Turns To QE To Calm Markets
The Bank of England surprised markets by announcing that it would buy long dated government bonds in order to stabilise capital markets. Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence explains why and what does this mean for the Pound.
Equity Downtrend: The Week Ahead – 26 Sep 2022
S&P has fallen to 2680. It’s down by 1.7%. How serious is the equity downtrend? The market is in a longer-term downtrend. Do we expect sharp rallies into the long-term trend or new lows for the year and a test of 3300-3500 on the S&P? Eric Barna talked us through this from the technical perspective.
Also, we looked at the Fed’s view of a better balance in the labor force. Sam Rines has written about that and he talked us through that as well.
Lastly, we have Tracy Shuchart who shared more of the energy issues in Europe and some issues around potentially moving manufacturing out of the region in a way that will hit the most.