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Welcome to a special geopolitics edition of the Week Ahead! In this episode, we’re diving into crucial geopolitical topics with our guests: Albert Marko, Virginia Tuckey, and Ralph Schoellhammer.
1. Russia’s Growing Relationships: Albert sheds light on Putin’s recent visits to UAE and Saudi Arabia and Raisi’s visit to Moscow. The guests discuss the implications for Russia, its influence, and the dynamic with China. Is Russia acting as a proxy for China in the Middle East?
2. Upcoming Elections: Ralph covers elections in the EU, Austria, Germany, and France. Are voters leaning towards populism? How does the situation in Ukraine influence European elections? Virginia and Albert discuss the upcoming US elections and key issues, including support for Ukraine and commitment to Israel. The big question: Will Biden run, and what about Trump’s potential nomination?
3. LatAm’s Battle of Ideas: Virginia takes us into the dramatic election of Javier Milei. Will Milei face challenges in implementing his agenda? How will he be received by regional counterparts, especially leftists like Lula in Brazil?
What’s the outlook for the US-Argentina relationship? A quick look at the ongoing developments in Venezuela and Guyana, and assessing the potential risks involved.
Transcript
Tony Nash
Hi, everyone, and welcome to the week ahead. I’m Tony Nash. Today, we’re doing a special geopolitical show. We’re joined by Albert Marko, Virginia Tuckey, and Ralph Schoellhammer. Guys, thanks so much for taking the time to join us for this. I’m really excited about this episode. We’re talking first about Russia’s growing relationships. There’s a lot going on with Russia at the center. We’re going to talk through a little bit of that. Albert’s going to lead on that. We’ve got some upcoming elections, and so we’ll talk about European elections. We’ll talk about US elections with Ralph and with Albert and Virginia. Then finally, we’ll talk about Latin America’s Battle of Ideas. We’ve had a libertarian elected in Argentina, and we’ll talk about the impact across the region and across the world.
Tony Nash
Hey, I’d like to make sure you know that you can access our AI-driven market forecasting tool called CI Markets for free. No strings attached, and it does not require any credit card information. Go to completeintel.com/markets to subscribe. CI Markets is the perfect addition to your analysis toolbox. This free account includes Nikkei stocks, major currency pairs, and global economics. Of course, we have for much more in our paid account, but this lets you experience the AI markets before making a financial commitment.
Tony Nash
CI markets uses the power of AI to help you make better trading investment decisions. It’s absolutely free. Again, go to completeintel.com/markets to subscribe to CI Markets Free. Guys, again, thanks so much for joining us today. This is really excellent. Albert, let’s start with you with Russia. We saw Vladimir Putin visiting the UAE and Saudi Arabia this week. Then we saw Iran’s President, Raisi, visit Moscow. The tweet that I’m showing right now is a snapshot of the Saudi Crown Prince correcting Putin’s translator, supposedly, over a statement around the Soviet recognition of Saudi independence. MBS said that Saudi Arabia was reunified instead of newly independent at the time. This is post-World War I. But it was really interesting to me that he jumped in and corrected so quickly and Putin just accepted it. To me, it tells me that Putin’s doing a tour to raise some money or do something. I could be very wrong here. But there’s a lot going on with Russia, obviously, especially with Ukraine. But can you tell me what’s your read on this hurried diplomacy that Russia is doing right now? What does that really mean?
Albert Marko
It’s really mainly about oil prices and the stability in the oil market right now. Russia doesn’t really have a functioning economy except for selling commodities and energy, and that’s just the reality of it. They need to formulate ties to the Middle East, specifically OPEC, and hopefully to stabilize the oil market so they can benefit of it. I know that there’s a cap on Russian oil prices, but realistically, everything’s going to India and China and then back to Europe to get resold onto the market. For him, I think it’s more of an asymmetric challenge against the economic sanctions to help Moscow out in the long run.
Tony Nash
Okay. Russia has been accepting other currencies, rubies and CNY and other currencies for their crude. Could part of this be him trying to offload some of that stuff to these other markets?
Albert Marko
You know, maybe. I don’t want to even have a real discussion on that because we just don’t know. I know that the ruby and rubble trade was a debacle. They got stuck with rubies that they can’t use. The one Rubble trade, it is what it is. It’s more of a barter system. But the reality is most of their companies enact in dollars. They’re not cut off from Swift. So it’s not really… I don’t really like the narrative that they’re trying to move away from the dollar and onto another currency when the fact of the matter is all of the 99% of the oil contracts globally is settled in dollars anyways.
Tony Nash
Okay. So I hear the other side of that, and people say that this Chinese, this CIPS system is really circumventing swift. Supposedly, there’s this huge trade in CNY or other currencies that’s circumventing Swift and circumventing the dollar. How realistic is that? And is there a way to know? Are there any numbers out there? Is there a way to infer that? I know we have a lot of anti-dollar cheerleaders out there, but is there really a way to understand what’s happening on that Chinese system?
Albert Marko
Not really, because it’s just a barter system between two nations. You can’t really sit there and make a judgment saying they’re going to replace the dollar with this different Swift system that they currently have because there’s no way to assess it in reality. It’s a barter system between two nations. The moment you start adding nations on to these things, that’s when the failures start happening and the problems become evidently clear and they have no solution for that. Of course, they resort back to using the swift.
Tony Nash
Right. I think part of it with China at the center of this, part of that, the problem is that the CNY really isn’t a currency. It’s more of a coupon because it’s not convertible. The CNY is worth what the PBOC says it’s worth. It’s not worth what other countries say. There come disputes over that. I’m not sure how well understood that is by a lot of these people. Can you tell me in general, Albert, and Ralph, jump in here. Is Russia’s influence growing? We see a lot of these trips and people visiting Russia and Russia, China visits, that thing. Is Russia’s influence growing?
Albert Marko
I’ll make it really quick so Ralph can jump in here, but yes and no. It’s growing in terms of commodities trade because of inflation and all these other bad policies out of Europe and the United States compounding the problem. But geopolitically, not really. They don’t really have a functioning military that can attack NATO like everyone threatens. They couldn’t take Ukraine. What power projection could they possibly have? What influence can they have a world away at this point in time? None, to my understanding. What do you think, Ralph?
Ralph Schoellhammer
No, I agree. I think there’s just two quick things I would add, and… As we know, Putin and the Russians, I think, symbolism matters for them. That Putin makes one of his rare in-person visits abroad and comes to the United Arab Emirates at a time when due to COP28, many other Western leaders are there as well. I think it’s both a signal from Russia, but I think also from the Gulf States that they are not fully on board with Western politics vis-a-vis Russia. They try to pursue their own strategy. I think Albert hit the nail on the head. This is why OPEC Plus is also willing to talk about future oil prices. There is maybe something, Tony, that you can also talk a little bit about. I think there’s a little bit of a disagreement. I think that the Saudis would be more open to higher oil prices compared to the Russians. Because the Russians, I feel, always fear that high oil prices will lead to more investment in US shale. I think most coffee is nothing more than the US shale industry. As the last point going to what Albert just said, it’s I think both of it.
Ralph Schoellhammer
One can say that the influence is growing, but on the other hand, I’m curious to hear what you guys think about this, I never really fully bought into the Dragon Bear idea. I think this is a very Western idea to look at this, this idea that they really are friends in international relations like the US and Canada or US and Europe. This is not how the Chinese and the Russians view each other. The Chinese don’t look at the Russians and the Russians at the Chinese, as I don’t know, the British and the Americans look at each other. I think the Russians don’t want to be uber-dependent on China. They also, of course, have an eye on the Chinese economy because if the Chinese are their main or would become their main partner, if China would spiral into a crisis, they would take the Russians down with them. I think the Russians want to diversify as well. That’s, I think, something they can do. I agree with Albert. They cannot do great power projection around the globe. But there is this idea that happened before the invasion of Ukraine, Putin said it in a speech, that the Russians want to be friends with everybody and enemies with no one.
Ralph Schoellhammer
We know how the latter one worked out, but I think that the first part is not entirely wrong. There is always this idea that was usually what we said about the Chinese. When the West goes somewhere, they give a lecture. When the Chinese come, they bring an airport. I think this is at least partially true with the Russians as well. It is tricky, but I agree with all that. The problem is not that the Russians are super strong or that the Russians are playing 3D chess or something that you, Tony, like to say about the Chinese, that they think ahead in generations. But like in a real game of chess, you don’t have to be a grand master. You just have to be better than your opponent. I think we have a problem in this geopolitical thinking in the West at the moment.
Tony Nash
Yeah. Go ahead, Albert, and then I’ll take a sip.
Albert Marko
Yeah, it’s just people… A good friend of mine, very well known the Dragon Bear. I love her to death. And on some points, she’s absolutely correct on the Dragon Bear thing, but on other points where this integrated, unified, two-capital system trying to overtake the rest of the world, it’s just… I have really real big trouble buying that. Knowing well how the Chinese view the Russians and how the Russians view the Chinese, like Ralph was saying, is just they don’t trust each other, they don’t like each other. Culturally, they’re different. Economically, they’re different. They don’t really complement each other, except for in times of extreme geopolitical or economic strain that they can barter a little bit here and there. But I don’t really look at a China-Moscow axis as a real competitor to the United States and the Anglosphere, in my opinion.
Tony Nash
Yeah. Here’s the reality. They don’t trust each other for a second. The Chinese and the Russians are antagonistic. They are in a partnership by necessity. They are not in a partnership by choice. There has never been an instance where China and Russia have aligned, where the Russians haven’t won. The Chinese want to believe that they have the upper hand in this relationship, and the rest of the world wants to believe that China has the upper hand in this relationship. But there has never been an instance historically where China has prevailed over Russia. Are the Russians super smart? Whatever. I don’t know. But if we look at the trade for outer Mongolia, the Russians won when the Chinese were weak. If we look at the late ’50s, early ’60s, when the Soviets and the CCP were trying to cooperate, the Soviets won. China suffered big time with famine, with upheaval, with ultimately the cultural revolution, all this other stuff. There’s never been a time where the Chinese have prevailed over the Russians. This whole Dragon Bear thing, again, I love the of that as well. It’s super smart and all that stuff. But it is not a partnership by choice.
Tony Nash
It is a partnership by necessity.
Albert Marko
I’ll tell you, Tony, before Ralph chimes in here. There was one comment, one phrase that Putin had said that every single geopolitical person misinterpreted or even just missed, where Putin said, We have nuclear assets in the Pacific, right? I forgot the exact wording, but that’s what generally he was saying that. However, most thought that that was a threat against NATO and the Ukraine and so on and so forth. That was a threat against the Chinese not to get adventurous on the border while Russia had moved their troops to support the Ukraine invasion, right? That’s what that is.
Tony Nash
Do you remember this thing that happened, I think, two years ago? There was a North Korean video that came out where they intentionally showed targeting North Korean missiles toward China. Do you remember that?
Albert Marko
Oh, yeah.
Tony Nash
I mean, it was subtle, but there was a little bit made about it when it was put out. There is this de facto or this go-to that China, they’re the masters and commanders and they’re in charge of everyone. It’s just not the case. If you peel back that perception, they’re not always in charge. Ralph, go ahead.
Ralph Schoellhammer
I’m going to go out a little bit on a limb here, but it’s a bit provocative, so I hope I won’t be misunderstood. Please, don’t be provocative. The argument I’m making is really a political one, not a moral one. I see the world differently morally than I see it politically. But exactly what Albert and you just mentioned. There is an opening, of course. I think you could, because the ties between Russia and China are not as close as one would think, I think you could break Russia out of this, quote-unquote, partnership of necessity with the right policies, the right diplomatic initiatives. I’m not a huge fan of Vivek Ramaswamy. I think actually, for the first time I pronounced his name correctly, this idea that he will go to Russia and do the same, that you do the reverse Nixon and do what Nixon did with China, with Russia. I think that’s a little bit out there. But again, and I’m not a fan of him.
Ralph Schoellhammer
But. In principle, this idea, and we had these choices to make in World War II as well, that you cannot be opposing everyone, you cannot be simultaneously opposing Iran, and you cannot be simultaneously opposing Russia and China, and trying to force, if you want, your worldview or an ideal world against their will. That’s not going to happen. As Albert, I think, correctly points out we are not in a multipolar world, but even in a unipolar world doesn’t mean that you can do everything everywhere all at once. I think that is something we have to realize. As we saw, of course, over the last two years, Russia doesn’t have much, but given the role they play in the energy sector, they’re still the second largest exporter of oil, that gives them some leverage. I think on the long run, that some way must be found to either make Russia similar to other countries, a standalone force, if you want, but one that’s at least positively inclined towards the West or bring them even closer back on the default. Now, I know this sounds absurd now, but if we want to do a deep dive into Russian history, a lot of this has always been driven by a Russian minority complex.
Ralph Schoellhammer
This goes back to Catherine the Great. They always wanted to be European, but never were fully accepted as European. So I think emotionally, they tend much more towards the West than they tend towards the Chinese. This brings us—and I think Albert can say more about this—in the sense, the war in Ukraine, I think it was completely correct to prevent at all costs that they will annex the entirety of Ukraine. To make sure, I think it was more due to the flaws in the Russian Army and I think the strength of the European Army that they prevented the capture of Kyiv, but they prevented it. I think there is a very good chance, a very high likelihood that Ukraine will prevail as an independent state. I think that was a primary goal of the West. Now, is it worth now to go into a prolonged Cold War with the Russians and the Chinese as, quote-unquote, these partners of necessity over Crimea and the couple of provinces in Eastern Ukraine? As I said, this is a political question. Morally, one can say yes, absolutely, and I’m not unsympathetic to this, but I think in international relations we don’t just deal with moral questions, we also deal with realities on the ground.
Ralph Schoellhammer
As we will talk about when we move into future elections in Europe, the population is shifting. The winds are shifting. The question is, how much are we willing to risk over, quote-unquote, Crimea and these provinces in the east? Again, I know this sounds very cold, very calculated, but this is what international politics has always been.
Albert Marko
That’s right. Yeah. That’s one of the things I was discussing with somebody in DMs, actually, on Twitter, support Ukraine and so on and so forth. I’m like, take the morality completely out of it, right? Because domestic politics and domestic interest in a nation that’s going through are going to supersede anything geopolitically that you’re talking about in 12 months to 24 months out. There’s no question about that, right? Right now, the appetite for sending $100 billion to Ukraine is gone. In reality.
Albert Marko
You can’t tell a mechanic that’s got a family to run, does a feed in Ohio that forget about your small business and medium-sized business loans and problems, we have to send $60 billion over to Ukraine. That’s not going to work. That’s not going to work in Europe right now. It’s not going to work anywhere in the world at the moment. And that’s just the reality.
Tony Nash
Virginia, I want to get your thoughts on this. Let me offer something first in response to what Ralph said, but I want to get your thoughts on Russia-China. Ralph, what you bring up is a very interesting proposition about rebuilding relationships with, say, Russia and China. I think from a practitioner’s point of view, you have to think, how would that happen? Do you just show up in Moscow and things magically repair? No, you have to think about things like, okay, let’s say the US. The US has to go through Korea to build relationships with Russia. The US has to go through India to build relationships with Russia. Those are very strong relationships. Those are the first things that have to happen to set the stage so the terms can come out to build a successful relationship. Because they can’t go through the UK because the UK and Russia have been at odds for a long time. Going through Germany, very suspect, especially with Russia. You really don’t know which side the Germans are playing and so on. You have to go through some of the Asian allies. Of course, India, you really never really know if they’re playing the Russian side or the US side, but I think India realizes the US is more important than they have ever before.
Tony Nash
I think India can be an unbiased broker. Korea, obviously, which politically is very aligned with the US, has a very good relationship with Russia, and the US can go work with Korea to build… Again, I’m talking about setting the foundation and the stage for a new relationship with Russia. China is a different story, and a lot of that just has to happen directly. Virginia, I’m curious your perspective on Russia and Russia-China from Latin America. I know that especially the Chinese have come in with a lot of development money and a lot of loans and funding and that thing. Russia obviously, tight relationship with Brazil and Venezuela and other places. Do you think, for first question, do you think Russia’s influence in Latin America is growing?
Virginia Tuckey
Yes, they are influencing, yeah. Because they have this partnership, as you said, of necessity with China and they are operating in Latin America from Cuba, Venezuela, Guatemala, also Argentina is like they are fighting for Argentina. They really want Argentina. There is also a problem they are trying to reemerge there. There is the Falkland, Malvena Islands problem and situation we have the UK. I mean, Argentina with the UK. Maybe you saw it, that the European Union said, Okay, we are going to call it now, Malvenas, not Falkland anymore. There was a provocation to the UK. That was just after the President, and now that he’s going away from Argentina, the living President. He was with Xi Jinping, and they were talking about the island. Why? Because China, they have a base here, a military base in the south of Argentina. The island being British is a problem for them there for a strategy problem because of the seas and if something happens there, they are messing with the UK. China and Russia, yes, I agree they don’t like each other, but I think they concluded that they are in an exact moment when America is declining in some way with, I mean, Biden and all the politicians with Biden and all the politicians, we see a lot of corruption around.
Virginia Tuckey
They have interest with these people, Russians and Chinese. We can see that. They are taking advantage of the situation and they are creating different issues around the world. They are in Latin America. They are in Africa. In Africa, the Russians, they are doing whatever they want there. They are very well connected with Iran that Iran is giving all these weapons and money to Hamas and the Hezbollah that they are making this war with Israel. So if you see around the world this axis of evil, Iran, China, and Russia, they are messing around the world. We have a war in Europe in the Middle East. And now we have this situation here in Venezuela that you see it looks like a small thing, but it’s not because Latin America is not really in peace as it looks. You have a lot of guerillas going on. They are acting like in Chile, in Argentina, not like in big time like in the ’70s, and these people are all connected. So yes, they are acting in Latin America as they are acting around the world. It’s dangerous. It’s dangerous if countries, if people, and leaders don’t realize what is going on, because what could happen, what I see is that we could have here Ukraine in Latin America.
Virginia Tuckey
I see this happening here in South America.
Tony Nash
Okay, a couple of things I want to roll back to. You talk about a Chinese military base in Argentina. I don’t think many people know about that. Can you give us some details on that?
Virginia Tuckey
Well, it’s in the south of Argentina. If you go on the way, can see it from a distance, but no one can get into there. If you’re a journalist, whatever, no one knows what’s going on there. We know there’s something. They say there is for cooperation for the weather to check the weather. Oh, no, that’s not true. But they are there and they have a lot of interest in Argentina because of the position of Argentina in the map around the seas. Well, in the South America, we have a lot of limits, Brazil, Chile, that limit with Chile could be complicated in the future and the resources. Argentina is under never seen before poverty level. We saw that this inflation before, but no this poverty level. We never seen this decline in culture, education. Argentina was never like this. They are taking advantage of this. We have a lot of resources here. I mean, agricultural, cattle, and the soil in Argentina is very good and we don’t have much people in Argentina. It’s 44 million. It’s the biggest eighth country in the world. Can you imagine? 1 million people float away from Argentina already. They emigrated because of the situation.
Virginia Tuckey
This is a point where they can do whatever they want. A large country, no control, rich country with a lot of things to do here. Yes, they have corruption and corruption. When you see how Ukraine was, I mean, before the war, how it was a very, very corrupt country, you can compare that with Argentina and their politicians, how they manage it here. It’s very easy. It’s very easy for a Chinese to come and bribe a politician, even important thing if people from companies or representatives, even in the agricultural side that you see there that is very genuine and strong people that they fight against high taxes. You can now find there are a lot of influence there that we never saw before. Yes, we have… They are very interested in the resources of Argentina, but also in the position Argentina occupies in South America and how they can expand everything here. They are in Cuba now. You saw that they have a military base now in Cuba to spy Americans or whatever all around. They’re not stopping. They are taking all around the world and they are surrounding America.
Tony Nash
Yeah. I think it sounds like what you all are all saying is that Russia has been, I think, pragmatic opportunists for a long time. China has become… They had this Wolf warrior diplomacy couple of years. They realized about a year ago that that was an utter failure, and so they’ve become pragmatic opportunists again, which is great. Whereas the US, from a diplomatic perspective, seems to be very ideologically driven and not very pragmatically driven. Is that all fair to say?
Albert Marko
Yeah. The bigger issue is the lack of actual policies that the US and Europe have made geopolitically in areas that they should be focused on Latin America, for one. It’s just been the US foreign policy in Latin America- We know better. It’s just the traumatic. We haven’t done anything constructive in Latin America, and I don’t even know how, about 50 years, 40 years? I have no idea. I can’t even tell you. And then going back to that Argentinean, Chinese base, that’s, from what I understand, it is a listening station and also a missile targeting station. The US is Achilles Heale, is actually the Southern border when it comes to ICBMs, and that’s quite well known in the DOD. So it’s problematic to hear that the Chinese have been not only going into Argentina and Cuba, but also trying to buy up former NATO bases in the Atlantic Ocean from Spain and so on and so forth. So it’s something that the United States needs to really address and not just continually overlook.
Tony Nash
Yeah, well, we’ll see. We’ll do it at the last minute. The US will do it at the last minute when they absolutely have to and spend 100 times more than they need to.
Albert Marko
Yeah, that’s exactly right.
Tony Nash
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Tony Nash
Okay, let’s move on from this. This has been fascinating, guys. Let’s move on to some upcoming elections. Ralph, we’ve got some elections coming in Europe. We’ve got EU elections, Austria, Germany, France, UK. Can you help us understand what are the main issues? Do you see voters moving into a more populist direction? We saw in the Netherlands, Geert Wilders came to power or was elected in the Netherlands. He still has to build a coalition and stuff. But this BBC graphic I’ve got up says that his elections spooked Europe.
Tony Nash
Are other European countries spooked by Wilder’s election? Or do you think that they’ll move more in that direction based on whatever some of those issues are? First, can you address the spooked question, the Wilder’s question, but then can you walk us through what some of the main issues are that European voters are looking at?
Ralph Schoellhammer
Well, I’m pretty sure that the editorial board of The Economist has been spooked. I’m not entirely sure about the. Rest of the-
Tony Nash
My former employer.
Ralph Schoellhammer
Sorry, I don’t know. It’s all right. The intelligence unit is a fantastic source of information. But let’s say the opinion pages of The Economist has seen better days. No, it’s a couple of things that’s coming together. There have been these populist waves in Europe before, and usually they come up and then they up again. But I think this time it is more sustainable for the very simple reason, partially because what happened in the Middle East over the last couple of weeks. It has been quite clearly, I would argue, revealed that both the Islamist and the migration problem is much more significant than has been admitted. This has been sugarcoated by European politicians and the European media in the past. This definitely had an impact on the elections in the Netherlands. It definitely had an impact on two regional elections into Western German states a couple of also weeks ago where the alternative for Germany did quite well. The so-called populist right-wing or far-right-wing or extremist, whatever you want to call it, parties. If you look at the numbers and the polls, it depends on where you stand. The AFD in Germany is in second place.
Ralph Schoellhammer
The right-wing freedom party in Austria is in first place. Wilders came in first place in the Netherlands. Are they really the French? Again, it really depends where you’re standing. I think two things that are still driving this is one is the migration issue, one is the inflation issue, and I think another one is a general distrust in the political class. I think the UK to the also upcoming elections is a great example there. People are tired of having, quote-unquote, Conservatives in office, but never having Conservatives in power. They’re going to get shillacked in the next elections because people want right-wing policies. Just as before with Russia and Europe, I’m not saying this necessarily because I personally endorse it. I have my own views on this, but this is the sense you get when you talk to Europeans. This is the sense what you get when you listen to what voters are saying. In many ways, I would argue it’s not rocket science. They want less migration, particularly from, let’s say, culturally distanced lands. This is very clear. Nobody in France has a problem with migrants from Portugal. The problem starts if you have migrants from the Middle East and particularly, of course, with people with an Islamist background.
Ralph Schoellhammer
That’s a fact. We can have debates whether this is Islamophobia, racism or whatnot, but it’s simple fact. This is how majority of the people feels. We have polls about this that says that most Europeans want an entire stop to all migration from Muslim countries. When the whole Brouhaha was a couple of years ago with Trump’s Muslim ban that wasn’t really a Muslim ban, a majority of Europeans actually wants a Muslim ban. That poll was done by Chatham House, the former Royal Institute of International Affairs. Not some right-wing, nut-job institution. I think as long as politicians of the, quote-unquote, mainstream parties are not willing to react to this, these populist parties will continue to grow. What is important is I think the hesitancy is breaking away. There was always a shy right-wing voter, but I think the people are becoming increasingly less shy about it. I think unless something significant happens over the next couple of months or the next two years, I think that the people voting for these right-wing parties openly is going to increase. I’m very strongly of the opinion, based on what we know now, that this will really be a right-wing wave.
Ralph Schoellhammer
The next Chancellor in Austria is going to be from the Freedom Party if things currently look. I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point the resistance of the Conservatives from Germany breaks down and they actually will consider entering coalition governments on the local level and the federal level with the AFD. Honestly, I’m not entirely sure that President Le Pen in France is entirely impossible. They’re going to vote a year later. Europe is not as unified as we would like to be, but we are unified enough that if something happens in one part and it doesn’t cause the end of world that was promised by the media and others, it spills over another country. So if he had willed us, I don’t think he will manage to become Prime Minister. I think they’re still going to prevent this. But if you have it in Austria, if you have an opening up towards the right in Germany, I think that the chance that the people in France also say, Okay, what’s so bad about this? I think it’s very high. Again, there’s still a lot of time out, but something is shifting.
Ralph Schoellhammer
Hypothetically, and this goes back, Tony, to connect it with something you said before. Now, I would also not rule out that at some point, all of Schultz in Germany picks up the phone, calls whoever is going to be in the White House when he calls them and says, How about we start talking to Moscow with your blessing? How about if Germany is actually taking that role, is playing that role, trying to play the mediator? Because if they can go into the 2025 elections with a peace deal brokered by Berlin, that would go down really well with the German populace. This is something that could potentially save Schultz’s chancellorship. As Albert said before, when it comes to domestic policies, these international moral considerations go out of the window. I would not be surprised. The Germans, if we’re entirely honest, they were never 100% wholeheartedly behind supporting Ukraine and going against Russia for a variety of reasons. Sorry.
Tony Nash
Yeah. There’s a lot thereof.
Tony Nash
That’s all right. There’s a lot thereof. One of the things I want to… definitions are really important. You kept using the word right-wing. Now, Elon Musk famously said, I used to be left of center, but the Democrats pulled things so far left that now I’m viewed as right of center. These things that you’re saying right-wing, would these things say 10 years ago have been considered right-wing?
Ralph Schoellhammer
Well, okay, I think that’s a great question. For our listeners, it depends on what your primary defining issue for right-wing is. For me, it is, and this goes back to also what you guys talked about Latin America. For me, the biggest dividing issue between the left and the right is that the right still has a sense of nationalism and patriotism, whatever you want to call it, and the left does not. I think that is the broadest thing. Geert Wilders, for example, is a patriot or a nationalist, but who is more a market libertarian. The right-wing in Germany and Austria is similar in their attitude towards their identity, towards nationalism, but they are more state interventionists in the economy. In the realm of the economy, there are vast differences. The same with Le Pen in France. She’s not a market. Just changed her stance a little bit, but she’s not a market libertarian. There is a difference there. But they are definitely convinced that the primary objective of the government should be the pursuit of the national interest and not some broader international morality. That, to be clear, I don’t mean this in a conspiratorial sense, in a WEF or George Soros, or whatever sense.
Ralph Schoellhammer
I think this is just the attitude in which a lot of our leadership has been educated and marinated. This idea that the national interest is of yesterday and it’s reactionary and the true obligation of the politician, of the ruling class is to pursue this vast international goals. But I think more and more people realize, and that’s my last point, that this becomes at some point an absurd stance. Take the issue of Latin America. It strikes me as very absurd that first you support somebody like Louis Ignacio da Silva in Brazil who is openly anti-Western, and then you have to use your term, Tony, then you have the entire Western media spooked by Milei, who, whatever his flaws are, comes out and openly says he’s pro-Western. He’s pro-Western. He’s pro-Western. He literally throws himself at Washington, at Brussels. The other reaction is, Oh, but this is the far-right, the right-wing extremist madman. To be honest, so what if he’s that? Obviously, he wants to be, quote-unquote, he wants to play on our team, so I would take him. But it looks like that we simply can’t do this.
Tony Nash
Yeah, Go ahead, Albert.
Albert Marko
They simply just don’t want anyone on the right to succeed in any which way politically or economically. The entire argument about national interests and preceding global interest is just logic. It’s consensual logic here. Who is voting for these politicians at the end of the day? If you look at Germany, the de-industrialization of Germany is so awful right now that there is no choice for most of these people but to vote for an opposite party, whoever is in charge. And it’s going to be tested and we’re going to see what national interest versus globalization. We’ll see who’s going to win that fight in the German elections coming up.
Tony Nash
I think what we’re seeing both in the US and in Europe is the prevailing view always goes too far in one direction or the other. And so we’ve had, I think 10, 15 years ago, Europe and the US were probably pretty okay with migration, but things have gone way too far. I don’t personally believe any of this is based on a hatred of religion or racism or anything. I think these people are just… They just want to preserve who they are, whether they’re Dutch or German or Austrian or whatever. With inflation, I think the energy policies particularly have been inflationary. These policies have just gone too far. So whether it’s immigration, inflation, or other things, it just seems like these political guys who have been in power, whether they’re right or left, they just happen to be left at this point in history. They just take their policies too far for your average person to bear. Is that a fair thing to say?
Ralph Schoellhammer
No, I think it’s a very fair thing to say. I know we discussed this in other podcasts before, but for example, the energy debate and the climate debate, at least in Europe, has in many ways left the grounds of rationality. Let me say very clearly what I mean by this. You have debates in Austria. We’re a country of 8 million people. And it is pretended as if the climate policies of Austria have an impact on the global climate. You don’t have to be a climate change denier to know that that’s absurd. But this is seriously being talked about. This idea that we had this recently that if you make a stricter speed limit on Austrian highways, this is how you’re going to save the global climate. These are absurd debates. I don’t want to go back with Albert said, the de-industrialization in Germany is a direct consequence of their energy policy, of this idea that the Germans will save the world. They will lead the world into the glorious renewable future. They have run the experiment. I jokingly said, because the German foreign minister was also at the COP28 and said, The entire world is looking at us.
Ralph Schoellhammer
Yes, they are. What they see is not something that they want to emulate. Everybody is very polite, but pretty much everybody looks at the Germans and says, You guys have lost your mind. Some are saying it openly, some are saying it less openly. Some don’t say it like the Chinese because to them it’s big business. They sell solar panels, they sell wind turbines and all these kinds of things. But ultimately, this was a direct consequence. Going back just to reduce it, and people say, Now, wait a moment, you basically lied to us in the realm of energy and the environment. You also lied to us in the area of immigration. A growing number of people says, We want you out. I think that’s, again, you’re correct. It’s not that they vote for racist potentially, and the AFD is a mixed bag, depending if you look at their Eastern wing or their Western wing. But it’s not that they say we vote for them because we share everything they say. They say we vote for them because they’re the only way for us to slap those in power, metaphorically, give them a slap. They want them out.
Ralph Schoellhammer
This is, of course, on the long run, just is a good thing. The so-called populist parties, I would say, are rather clumsy. I don’t find them particularly, let’s say, charismatic in the leadership. But can you rule that out in the future? Can you rule out that a real populist comes along in Germany, in Austria? Or usually the combination is the populist starts in Austria and then moves to Germany, as we historically once had. Can you really rule this out on the long run? I’m not so sure about this. Then we’re going to wish it would only be the Geert Wilders and the Le Pens when you have really, really these extreme right-wingers that say, We don’t just want to work within the system, we want to break the system. Be careful what one wishes for.
Tony Nash
Now, Ralph, real quick, before we move on to the US with Albert, I want to talk about Ukraine because I have this graphic up saying that EU countries order only 60,000 shelves for Ukraine by a new scheme. Just real quickly, is Europe becoming tired and weary of Ukraine?
Ralph Schoellhammer
Yes. You see this in three ways. Slovakia elections where Robert Fico is now poised to become Prime Minister who is very, very… He’s really almost pro-Russian. The more Ukraine critical parties in Europe are gaining in the polls and the idea, and this is again this gap between the leadership, if you want, I dislike the term elites a little bit, but I use it nonetheless. The majority of the population, the idea that Ukraine in the next five, six years will become an EU member is complete insanity. They can do it, but at some point the EU is going to break. There is a growing sense that this is again, promises are being made to another country with barely any… What is the term? Without any consultation. Consultation with their own populations. And then they are surprised that elections and the way they do this is in some way, and this is my last provocative statement, in some way, I would argue that Kyiv overplayed its hand.
Tony Nash
Absolutely.
Ralph Schoellhammer
I think they really believed that the West or Europe is in it all the way for as long as it takes. But those were just politicians’ platitudes. As Albert said before, once elections, basically, as long as it takes is just political speech for until the next election.
Ralph Schoellhammer
This is what we see now happening. Again, I said, morally, I’m also all pro-Ukraine, but the political reality is something else, and we have to deal with the reality of the political world and of the moral world.
Tony Nash
That’s right. Let’s use that topic to pivot to the US. Albert, with US elections coming up, let’s cover Ukraine first. The US appetite or America’s appetite for Ukraine, you covered the guy in Ohio who really doesn’t care. But generally, what are you seeing on Capitol Hill in terms of the appetite for Ukraine?
Albert Marko
Well, it’s funny because you just recently, I think like two days ago, you saw Mitch McConnell come out and say, Oh, no more money for Ukraine at the moment, because he sees the reality in the polling numbers within the GOP, within the independents, and even some Democrats are just like, They’re done with the Ukraine story. The problem that we have is, again, how do you send $100 billion to Ukraine when domestic companies are hurting and losing jobs? That’s the core of the situation. Inflation is going up, jobs are being lost. Forget about the jobs number today because that was 95% of it was government. But I’m talking about mom and pop brick and mortar stores on Main Street are losing jobs. They’re hurting economically, and that transcends over to the Ukraine issue. There’s like, It cannot send money here if our home issues are problematic. For the first time, I’ve seen not just Mitch McConnell and some established Republicans start to deviate away from the Ukraine issue, but even some Democrats have started to allude to less for global issues and more for at-home. And that’s common. I mean, it’s an election coming. Voters in the Midwest, vote for senators, they’re going to get subsidies.
Albert Marko
They’re going to get ethanol and all waivers. They’re going to get so on and so forth and anything they could throw out in Congress to up the budget. And Ukraine, unfortunately, is not going to be with it. And it’s interesting that you say that Zelenskyy overplayed his hand. That was quite clear during the Hamas attack when all of a sudden these glorious stories of Moscow was the one that initiated it or the October seventh was Putin’s birthday and it was a gift from Iran. They’re trying to tie in both these things because they see the writing on the wall. The money is not unending in the United States.
Tony Nash
Okay, you say money is not unending in the United States. That’s a long discussion. But I want to go back to you said the unemployment numbers that came out today, 95% of the jobs are created by government. That is a problem in the eyes of most Americans, right?
Albert Marko
Yeah, because they’re not real jobs for Main Street. I mean, like I said, most of those jobs are in Virginia or outside the military bases, so on and forth and so forth. But in the Rust Belt of America, those aren’t real jobs. In Kentucky or Alabama or Texas, those jobs, they don’t transcend into those places.
Tony Nash
Yeah. You know what? Americans are portrayed as being stupid. Everyone around the globe likes to look at whatever Americans, geography, skills or whatever and say, We’re stupid people. But Americans aren’t stupid. When you look at things like this, people can see that 95% of the jobs are government jobs. They see that their income isn’t keeping up with inflation and so on and so forth. You can only fool people so long. Okay, so you’ve covered inflation, you’ve covered Ukraine. What are the other… If you had to rank order the issues for American voters, what would the top say, five be for you?
Albert Marko
It would be certainly inflation of jobs, economic problems in jobs, certainly that. What a crime. Crime is still pretty high in cities like New York and the urban areas. That correlates with inflation and jobs being lost. Of course, crime is going to arise. Immigration has been an incredible problem as they’ve completely ignored the Southern border. Those four would be my top issue right now.
Tony Nash
I would say immigration has probably overplayed as an issue in 2016. It gets some Republicans, but Democrats I don’t think really cared. But now that you’ve got guys like the mayor of New York City complaining about immigration, it’s hitting all across the US, and people are realizing all across the US that this is a major issue.
Albert Marko
Again, domestic issues always push what global policies that the nation is going to do. Now, even in Chicago, it was a spectacular video, where the residents of Chicago, which are notoriously left, as left as you can get, were screaming at the city council because they were spending $50 million for housing migrants when their own constituents were losing jobs and had parks and recs and social programs cut. Those things have consequences in elections.
Tony Nash
Gosh, imagine what it would be like if they were in Texas. We see this stuff all the time.
Tony Nash
All the time.
Tony Nash
Virginia, I know you’re an American. What do you see as the top issues of Americans? What’s your perspective?
Virginia Tuckey
I think immigration, illegal immigration is one of the top issue, but not recent top issue. It comes from a long time, and no one has really covered this. Donald Trump did, but he didn’t finish the war. That was some… I mean, he couldn’t. He tried. But yeah, inflation. I was in America recently after, I think, three years, and I thought inflation and one dollar, that’s worth nothing. I mean, I was really surprised. I was going from Argentina, we had 200% inflation per year. It’s not that inflation, it surprises me. But I compare America with America and just a few years ago and it’s something you see the numbers they are giving you from the government, and it doesn’t make any sense when you go to the supermarket or you go everywhere. Yeah, immigration, inflation, I think those are top and also insecurity. I think foreign policy in some way is something that worries people because they see this thing with China, they see Ukraine, Russia, and they don’t know what’s going on inside the country. They have the Chinese people inside their country, their government, what they are doing there. Well, we just found out you had a guy there around in the Department of Defense that was a Cuban spy.
Virginia Tuckey
He was actually here in Argentina, and I don’t know which other country. I think people, I don’t know if everyone, but in general, you can find more consent than before, are more worried than before in normal people about foreign policy and what could happen. The position America occupies in the world, I think those are top issues. Yeah.
Albert Marko
I mean, the foreign policy issues for Americans, the Biden administration has probably been the worst administration I’ve ever even read historically in terms of foreign policy. There’s been so many errors, and it does-.
Tony Nash
Carter could make a strong showing there too.
Albert Marko
Yeah, he could, except for, at this point in time, we have Hamas issue, Ukraine issue.
Tony Nash
Afghanistan legacy issues.
Albert Marko
Afghanistan, you name it. And there are losses that will take a generation to rectify, and hundreds of millions of dollars, if not trillion dollars, to fix.
Virginia Tuckey
I forgot one thing that is the fentanyl crisis. I think that is a big issue, and people are very worried about that.
Tony Nash
I watched the Republican debate a couple of days ago, and I know it’s not Trump, but two of the four, I think at least two of the four people on stage said that they would be in favor of sending US Special Forces into Mexico to take out cartels. I think three of the four plus Trump. Now, I think Trump may have said that too. I’m not exactly sure about sending Special Forces in. Three of the four people on stage, and I know Trump has said this as well, they would undertake the largest export of immigrants in history to send these people back to their home country. These are not small things that they’re proposing, whether the Republicans are proposing are dramatic departures from where we are today. Do you think that just those two proposals on their own, do you think that will attract people, or do you think that just is seen as spooky far-right to borrow from the BBC’s article we saw earlier?
Albert Marko
It depends on where you’re asking the voter from. Obviously, Texas and Florida, parts of New York City and the main cities, it’s going to resonate. But out in the suburbs where they don’t really see the immigration issue, it’s going to detract them. Like I’ve always told people, US elections is a numbers game divided up by cities and municipalities. So depending on where you ask that question, yeah, you get varying answers. But seeing what’s happened in New York and Chicago and L. A. With the immigration issue, I think it’s more leaning towards people wanting to see something along those lines happen. Whether they discuss it publicly or within their friends circle or not is a different story.
Tony Nash
Okay. We’re going to get really nerdy on some election arithmetic for just a second, Albert. We had this Republican congressman from New York, outstead from Congress for this week. We had Kevin McCarthy say he’s out as of the end of December. Do you think the Republican majority in the House is a thing of the past, especially going into the ’24 election? Do you think the Republicans can maintain and increase their majority in Congress?
Albert Marko
That’s a good question. I think they’ll probably end up losing Santos seat. They’ll retain McCarthy’s seat. I think what will end up happening is a tighter majority for the Republicans, which is problematic because it’s already at the point where a handful of congressional members can dictate policy for the entire US House. It’s tough. Luckily, during election time, most of the time, both parties are on board with subsidizing American voters in any way, shape, or form. I don’t see too many problems heading forward in legislation because of that.
Tony Nash
Okay, great. That’s good to know. All right, let’s have real quick questions about you, Virginia. Will Joe Biden be the nominee for the Democrats?
Virginia Tuckey
I don’t think so. I think it’s Newsom. You don’t think so? Wow. No.
Tony Nash
Okay.
Virginia Tuckey
I think there will be a war there between Newsom and Kamala Harris, but I don’t think Biden will be the nominee.
Tony Nash
Wow. Okay, Albert, what do you think?
Albert Marko
He’ll be the nominee. It’s too late for anybody else besides Kamala Harris to jump in and take that torch going forward. You have to build out. We’re already in December. Primary elections are Super Tuesday and March, so unless something happens in the next month, it’s already too late to begin with, but something would definitely have to happen in the next 30 days.
Tony Nash
Okay, great. Then Republican nominee, is it Trump?
Albert Marko
It’s too early to say. I mean, that’s in a state-by-state basis. DeSantis will certainly win Florida, California, New York, and these other states, Iowa, perhaps New Hampshire, and then it’s electoral. It’s a super delegate race from state to state. Most of the polling says national Republican primary. There’s no such thing as a national Republican primary. Most of the states are open primaries. They don’t even show registration. So how do you poll those people?
Tony Nash
You don’t.
Albert Marko
If I was betting on it, I would say 60-40 Trump at the moment. But things can change drastically. A couple of elections early on favor DeSantis, and then who knows what will happen?
Tony Nash
Great. Virginia, what do you think? Trump or no Trump?
Virginia Tuckey
Well, as Albert said, yeah, I think it’s too early to say he’s now. If it’s today, yes, of course, he will. But he has these judicial issues, and I see there are a lot of people pushing for other candidates. So let’s wait. Yeah, it might be. I think a lot of possibilities there, but not 100% sure.
Albert Marko
And that’s the thing, Tony, is it’s not a Trump versus single candidates, right? It’s either Trump or no Trump is what the primary is at the moment. So as people drop out like Vivek and Nikki Haley and so on and so forth, those delegates will go to another person. And if they’re already not voting for Trump, the more likely is they’ll be allocated towards a DeSantis or a secondary candidate at that point.
Tony Nash
Okay, interesting. All right, great. Thank you for that. Let’s move on to Latin America. There’s a real battle of ideas underway in Latin America and Virginia. We all know that Javier Milei was elected in Argentina. It’s really been hard to avoid that coverage. I just want to jump right into it. Milei’s election was dramatic, but I’m curious if he will actually have the ability to do anything. With the US, we saw the inertia of the bureaucratic state that it proved to be a real impediment for Trump. Do you think Milei can really get anything done?
Virginia Tuckey
Well, there is one thing that the world is expecting from him because what the world is watching is his statements on free markets and corruption and socialism, and everyone is going crazy and saying, Oh, look at this. He’s a true libertarian. Well, he is. He is, and I trust he is. But the thing is we have a context in Argentina that I told you at the beginning. We have 40 % poverty, but of the 40 %, 60 % of children in Argentina eat once a day.
Tony Nash
60 % of children in Argentina eat once a day.
Virginia Tuckey
60 %. 60 % of children in Argentina receive only one meal per day and a very poor meal. So the levels of poverty in Argentina has never been seen before. And you have done that in a structural level. So he is taking power on Sunday, and he has a very complex situation to solve 200% inflation. This guy that was his opponent, a candidate, that he was the economy minister here, he spent a lot of money that he took from the treasury to make his campaign to give away money to get votes. We have a huge problem in one week, something that cost. I mean, you went to the supermarket and this costed 1,000, today it’s 3,000 or 4,000. It’s exploding and Milei is not even the president. The important thing about Milei is if he can and if he will go in the direction he said he was going to be. I mean, he will look to make Argentina a free country or a freer country because we really are very close here. If you want to buy something from Amazon, you cannot because it will be stopped, whatever you buy.
Virginia Tuckey
I mean, it’s the smallest thing to the biggest thing. Inflation, no money, poverty, and a lot of-
Tony Nash
Crime, I would imagine.
Virginia Tuckey
I mean, it’s something really crazy what’s going on. He has to first take care of the economy. He has a lot of support around the world. That’s great. If he can do everything the world is expecting him to do, well, what is the world expecting? I don’t know if the world is really noticing what the situation is in Argentina. Here in Argentina, people are expecting that he cut taxes, he low inflation, and that people can go to the supermarket and buy food. That’s what we are expecting here. That’s it. If he can do that, then he will be successful already. Then we have another situation after he solved the economy. We have a lot of opportunities because a closed country, imagine if you solve the inflation here, then you have a lot of opportunities. You open the markets, in Argentina is a good place to compete and to make business because people here are well educated yet. He can be a good President. He can take Argentina out of this complete mess. It’s going to be difficult, but not because of his ideas. It’s because of everything that’s around him, the unions. The unions haven’t made any noise in four years with this record inflation and poverty.
Virginia Tuckey
Today they are announcing that Milei becomes president on Sunday and they are starting to make noise on the riots on Monday. They are very hard. That’s going to be difficult for him. If he can do it, he has a lot of support, almost 60% of population. That is very important and transcendent. I think he can. But the expectations. Yeah, I’m sorry.
Albert Marko
Let me ask you, since you’re there, what’s the perception on the ground about dollarizing the Argentine economy?
Virginia Tuckey
Well, I think some people are agree, other are not really sure. But in general, what you will see in the middle man around, they see, Okay, I prefer to get my money in dollars instead of this pesos because this 100 pesos, 1,000 pesos I take is one value today and another value tomorrow. People in general go and say, Okay, do whatever you want. That’s what is going on in Argentina now. You have these discussions of economist and especially it’s on television, social media, newspapers. But then on the ground, people are saying, Solve it. Do whatever you need to do, but solve it because the situation is dangerous. He has the support of a lot of people, so he better do it quick and right. The most important thing here is he makes it on Monday. He gives a lot of news about what he’s going to do and make it quick because otherwise he’s going to fail. But yeah, I mean, he has the support of people because people is tick and tired of what’s going on in Argentina. I think, yeah, in general, if they know what the dollarization is or not, they say, Okay, go and do it and solve it.
Tony Nash
Yeah. I just hope and pray that he doesn’t consult people like Jeff Sachs on how to fix it. He’d make it dramatically worse.
Albert Marko
That’s the problem, Tony. It’s like, who’s going to be in his cabinet? What advisors is he going to have? What policies is he going to put? He’s only realistic that he’s one guy. He can’t fix the whole thing.
Albert Marko
He needs a cabinet and he needs a network to support him. Unfortunately, I have a pessimistic view of that because the left has been ingrained in Argentinean politics and Latin American politics for so long. I didn’t know they were. Yeah, and it’s easy for them to undermine things.
Virginia Tuckey
Yeah. Well, he’s choosing people that are not really coming from this libertarian side. He’s choosing technical people from itch or monetary things. He’s choosing that specific people that have experience. Some people are not really liked in general because they were already part of other government that failed, but because they were so slow making the policies and applying the policies they have to do. But he’s choosing people to solve, first of all, you see that he has that focus on the economy. As I’m telling you, Albert, Tony, and Ralph, he has to cut inflation. Stop it. If he does that, then everything else will be easier. We are not talking here about environmental policies. We’re not talking here even about immigration. We don’t have that problem in Argentina. People are emigrating. The problem is inflation. Milei, yeah, it’s a surprise because in this situation, we had two outsiders. One was Milei and the other one, he was a guy that he didn’t even make it on the primaries, but he’s quite loud and he’s a communist. He said, To solve poverty, we have to take the land of the rich people. A lot of people follow him.
Virginia Tuckey
We were in danger of becoming that, of becoming Venezuela-
Tony Nash
Zimbabwe.
Virginia Tuckey
-and Argentinians.
Virginia Tuckey
Yes, and Argentinians, even in the poorest place. Hello? Oh, yeah. In the poorest place, they chose a guy that said, I’m a libertarian. I want to cut taxes. I want to open the markets. The populist, Peronist, leftist, fascist, because the Peronism is all that, they couldn’t handle that speech. They couldn’t win for the first time in front of a guy who was saying, in television, I will do free markets. I’m pro-Western. I mean, so he has a lot of support. So if he does the right thing and the people that is with him just work on solving the economic problems, then we have a lot. I mean, Argentina will do very well.
Albert Marko
The fastest way that they can do that would be to either peg the peso the dollar or dollarize at least on the ground, because Venezuela actually did that. So Venezuela, under the covers, dollarized, and it stopped hyperinflation, debt in its tracks. So he does have a point here with the dollarizing the economy there.
Tony Nash
Great. Good first step.
Virginia Tuckey
Yeah. We have an experience on that, yeah.
Tony Nash
Good first step. I want to ask you about… Milei’s first foreign trip as President-elect was to the US. It was to New York. I’ve got on the screen a pretty scary picture of Malay with Bill Clinton. How do you think the US-Argentina relationship will evolve?
Virginia Tuckey
Well, that was a surprise to me since I follow Milei, and I met him a couple of times a decade ago, so I know how he thinks. But I’m not sure. You will understand this. He’s a libertarian. A libertarian always or mostly they are focused on economy. Everything has an economic point of view. But then in general, when you take these people out of those economic places, they don’t really know all about it. I think he made a mistake by getting to meet Bill Clinton. The guy he is selecting to represent Argentina in the in Washington, he was always a founder of the Clinton Foundation of Hillary Clinton campaign. That guy is going to Washington representing Argentina. I don’t think that is good news because everyone who know of Bill Clinton, Clinton Foundation, the global initiative, you know Bill Clinton don’t sit by your side, you have lunch with you just to know what you’re thinking. You’re pursuing business in compromise. I think that was not necessary. There’s one thing here. He went to the White House. He was with Sullivan. Okay, that’s okay, because he’s the elected President, but he never met one congressman or senator of the Republican side.
Virginia Tuckey
I mean, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, they are very connected with Latin American issues and issues that are are affecting Argentina directly. That was a surprise to me. I can give him the doubt, no, he hasn’t. That’s a signal, and I don’t think that’s a good signal for the future of Argentina and even for the future of our relationship with America and with the right side of freedom. But I will expect him to become President and to see what his foreign policy is. I think he’s an honest guy, like that he’s a good person and he believes in freedom, really believes in freedom. From the time I started to listening to his ideas and following him, it’s been a lot of years and he never changed his position. I trust him, but I expect him to be on the good track on everything. It’s important the economy, but it’s important not to fall in desperation because Argentina needs money and then associate Argentina with the Clintons because that could be dangerous in the future.
Tony Nash
For us. Yeah, I can see both sides of that. I think on some level, being a libertarian, he’s also a pragmatist. He may have seen that this was a lunch he had to take, and these are some relationships he has to build to build relationships within the US political establishment. It’s true. I can see the worries from a purist perspective, but I can also see the pragmatism in the meeting. I’m not really sure yet. Albert, you had something to say?
Albert Marko
No, that’s right. I mean, the fact of the matter is the Clintons and the left in the United States and Wall Street are the ones that dominate the money. It’s an unfortunate reality that no matter what world leader comes to the United States, that you’re going to have to meet those type of people. I do agree with Virginia that he should have met with Marco Rubio or Cruz or Rick Scott or Mitch McCann, somebody on the right, at least to start building a network within DC on both sides of the aisle. I do agree with her on that one.
Tony Nash
Great. Okay.
Virginia Tuckey
Just to finish, yes. Maria Salazar is coming to Buenos Aires representing the Republican Party, but I know he has to be pragmatic and he has to meet everyone that can help him. But I hope he doesn’t compromise more than he should. That’s it. Of course, he cannot just go and have a meeting with Donald Trump and Marco Rubio and leave everyone behind because that’s not politics and that’s not good. But I hope he manages and people who will manage foreign policy will do it in the right way considering Argentinean context that is very complicated. Let’s wait. I hope he does right there.
Tony Nash
Yeah. I mean, it would be great to see Argentina put on the right track. I don’t think anybody would be against that. Okay, guys, this has been a long episode, but let’s cover one final topic in Latin America. We want to talk about Venezuela and Guyana. What’s happening there? I think, Albert, can you give us a quick overview of what’s happening there, why it’s happening, and is it important?
Albert Marko
What’s happening? Maduro and his glorious ideas to annex parts of Guyana and take over the oil exploration contracts out in the… I think most of it’s offshore, to be honest with you. I don’t know how he thinks he’s going to do that. I personally think it was more lines of trying to shore up support for those upcoming elections, but realistically, they don’t have the military. The Venezuelan Army was eating zoo animals because they were underfed last year. Let’s everyone take a break. There’s not going to be some glorious Venezuelan invasion of Guyana. Could there be a little bit of tensions and skirmish on the border? Yeah, maybe. But there’s no roads going into Guyana. I mean, it’s dense forest, so it’s not like the Venezuelan military is funded or even modernized to conduct such operations.
Tony Nash
Could it be a way for Venezuela to get military aid from China or Russia? I mean, it’s just the roll-up to this is a way for them to say, Hey, here’s the money.
Albert Marko
They could. But it would be suicidal because it would give the United States all the justification it wants to up the tension against Venezuela. If Venezuela wants to sit there and try its luck, God bless you. God speed to all you guys. I hope you do it. In fact, I hope you try it because I’ve been calling for Venezuela to being overthrown for years since Trump. I hope you try something.
Tony Nash
Virginia, what’s your view on that?
Virginia Tuckey
Well, I think these tensions you can see in Venezuela now, you can see that happen in different ways in Chile. When Piñera was there on October 18th, when all these leftists burnt the whole city of Santiago. Now you see Venezuela trying to make war with Guyana to annex. These different tensions we have here are more than something they are preparing to get their region in a very big tension all around. Let’s not forget we have Brazil, that is just next to Venezuela. Brazil is a very complicated country. It’s a great country, but it’s very complicated. They have some guerillas there. We have guerillas in Latin America. This Sao Paulo Forum that they formed between Fidel Castro and Lula, it was meant to get all the guerillas together to restart the ’70s and retake the power in Latin America. They did. They retook power. Now they have this connection with Russia, China, and Iran. Let’s not forget here in Argentina, we had terrorist attacks from Iran. We had these planes that were coming last year from Iran. No one saw it coming. The government was involved here and no one knew what this place were having.
Virginia Tuckey
What do you have inside? I mean, they were coming from Venezuela, guns, weapons, whatever. We don’t know. I think in general, if you look like the big picture, they are trying to make different tensions around the continent. That could be something because of China is behind this and Russia, because China wants to have the Middle East, Latin America, Europe, all the continents with tension, and America taking care of everything so they can go to Taiwan. That’s what I think. Latin America is a place that could be in a complicated situation in the near future, not right now. I think Venezuela is giving the first signals. Not that they can win and take Guyana, but I’m not sure this is good news or I wouldn’t want a military intrusion there because I think it could go bigger. It could be a disaster.
Tony Nash
Interesting. Guys, thank you so much for this. And we’ve gone so long that my light’s gone out. So thanks so much for your time. Thanks so much for all the thought you’ve put into this. Have a great weekend. Really appreciate this and have a great weekend. Thank you.
Albert Marko
Thanks, Tony.
Virginia Tuckey
Thank you, Tony.