Brexit’s impact on the Sterling and tech stocks at nosebleed-highs are the subject of the day’s market discussion with Tony Nash, Founder and CEO of Complete Intelligence.
You forecasted that any loss in trade to be modest at best. Why do you say that?
“The nation tariff rate for non-EU member is something like 2.3%–2% on the price of anything is not going make a major difference. The trickier issue is the non-tariff barriers that Europe has. The UK has to navigate around those non-tariff barriers,” said Nash.
“In terms of country partners, the US is actually the largest trade partner of the UK. It’s around $67-68 billion a year. The second largest export partner in Germany at about $45 billion dollars. The EU as an aggregate partner is, of course, larger than the US. But the EU as a trade partner is stagnant. It’s not growing from the UK. It hasn’t grown noticeably since 2015/16. Meanwhile, the US is growing at a billion dollars per year.”
Where do you see the Pound this year?
“We’re seeing the Pound continuing to strengthen until about April. And once April hits, we see some of its strength tail off just a bit,” said Nash.