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In America, the economy sinks but markets surge. What gives?

 

BFM 89.9: The Business Station speaks with CEO and founder of Complete Intelligence, Tony Nash, to explain why the markets have surged and earnings seem resilient despite the US GDP falling to negative 4.8 percent.

 

Produced by: Michael Gong

Presented by: Noelle Lim, Khoo Hsu Chuang

 

Listen to the podcast, originally published in BFM 89.9.

 

 

Podcast Notes

 

BFM: We are talking to Tony Nash, the chief executive of Complete Intelligence on the American markets. Tony, thank you for talking to us. American GDP shrank by 4.8% overnight, the steepest fall since the last recession. What did you think of these numbers in terms of what you expected prior?

 

TN: It was a bit worse than many people thought. But it wasn’t as bad as it could have been. That was the thought that many people had, and markets tend to be looking forward. So looking at Q2, we now have big states like Texas and Florida and others that have started to open up fairly aggressively. So markets themselves are looking forward. And markets are looking pretty favorably on some of the opening up lines.

 

BFM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is calling for more action from the government. What are the options and what do you hope to see?

 

TN: Well, there are options for more fiscal stimulus. The federal government could do things like an infrastructure plan. Two years ago, in his State of the Union address, the President talked about a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan for the U.S. They could do something like that. The individual states, which really imposed a lot of these restrictions, they really haven’t had to pay up much aside from kind of the standard unemployment benefits.

 

So the states could pony up a bit more cash than they have. They’ve really been relying on the federal government to pay for this whole thing. And they haven’t really had any accountability for the decisions that they’ve made. So I think the states really need to pay up a bit in terms of fiscal stimulus.

 

BFM: The Fed has backstopped the corporate bond market in the fixed income market for some time. Obviously, you can see that exemplified in the six and a bit trillion dollars of debt on the balance sheet. Do you think they’ll come a time when the Fed backstops the equity market as well?

 

TN: I don’t know. There’s been talk about that, they’ve certainly done that in Japan and the BOJ owns a lot of the ETFs in Japan. I don’t necessarily see that happening in the U.S. because it’s a door that once you open, it’s very, very difficult to close.

 

It’s the same question with negative interest rates. And so these are activities that once you start, they tend to be very, very hard to stop. And most of the market observers don’t really want that to happen.

 

 

BFM: Q1 GDP came in minus 4.8 percent. But the consensus estimate of economist on Bloomberg reckoned there’s going to be a minus 26 percent drop in Q2. And even more astonishingly, I think a nine percent improvement in Q3. Do those two numbers strike you as a little bit extreme?

 

TN: Q2 seems a little underestimated, meaning I don’t necessarily think it’s going to be that bad. Q3? It’s possible it could be nine percent. I think given how negative it could be in Q2, you could definitely see a rebound like that. But that’s just a base effect in terms of the quarter on quarter growth. It’s not necessarily a dramatic year on year growth. In fact, year on year, that’s actually negative and a negative print. One would hope that if Q1 and Q2 are so bad that you would see a print that’s at least nine percent in Q3.

 

 

BFM: Yet markets charge ahead despite relatively bad macro data. What is this optimism based on?

 

TN: Seeing the states open, seeing some realistic plans being put together to do this, there’s a balance of doing it aggressively and carefully. I know that sounds a little silly, but we’re seeing some real push by Americans to want to open. So the state governments are going to probably do things a little more aggressively than they initially wanted.

 

There was some concern that Q1 earnings would be worse than they are. Meaning that companies may try to pack all their negative news into Q1 in hopes that Q2 will look slightly better. But sure, they’ve packed some of the negative news in Q1. But some of the Q1 earnings haven’t been as bad as people had feared. So markets are looking forward. And in the U.S., it’s a flight to safety.

 

We’re also seeing on a relative basis, U.S. markets perform fairly well as, say, non-dollar assets or overseas dollar assets come into the US.

 

 

BFM: Microsoft, Facebook, and Tesla all came out last night all the better than expected. Microsoft showing some picture of health in the corporate sector. Tesla, obviously, where car sales are concerned, then Facebook where the ad consumer market is concerned. Can we read this optimism into Q2 and possibly even into Q3?

 

TN: I think certainly Facebook and Microsoft, with people sitting at home, those two will probably do quite well in Q2. Tesla? I wouldn’t expect Tesla to do well in Q2. Auto sales have been way down in Q2. And with oil and gas prices as low as they are, the substitutionality effect of electronics from internal combustion engine cars, the incentive is not as high as it once was. So I don’t necessarily see Tesla’s performance to be better than expected. But then again, Tesla bulls are Tesla bulls. They’ll buy, and they’ll pump up the price regardless of how they perform in real life.

 

BFM: So you don’t expect this to be a broader momentum for the broader market?

 

TN: Anything focused on productivity, anything focused on virtual activity, will do very, very well. But things like car sales, again, they’ve been really difficult. Anything around entertainment or group, physical, in-person, entertainment, obviously, it’s just not possible or hasn’t been possible for those to grow. So those are going to be really, really hard for people to get optimistic about.

 

On the other hand, you’ve seen, energy firms actually performing really well today. The major oil and gas firms and U.S. markets performed really well. Part of that is on the back of gossip that the U.S. Treasury may come to the rescue with some preferential financing for American oil and gas firms. Whether or not that’s going to happen, we don’t really know yet. But that may come to pass, which may help some of these firms.

 

BFM: Talking about the oil industry, are there any structural changes they can make to improve their prospects of survival? Some of these oil majors that you spoke of?

 

TN: Oil and gas firms are incredibly inefficient. There are a lot of productivity changes the oil and gas firms could make, whether they’re NOCs, the national oil companies, or the private sector majors. Oil and gas workers tend to make a lot more than other sectors.

 

They tend to be more bloated, so there are a lot of productivity measures that can be taken. For NOCs, for the national oil companies, there can be more activities taken to make them more accountable than markets. And so I think in Malaysia, you’re lucky. Petronas performs pretty well.

 

But other NOCs don’t perform as well and you can see some major changes in terms of fiscal accountability. Assuming oil prices stay lower, accountability to the central governments and performance rather than the subsidies coming from central governments, as we’ve seen in the past, may come to pass in some countries if they can’t really afford to continue to subsidize these governments. Because, you know, we’re seeing the emerging market and middle-income country currencies come under a lot of pressure versus the U.S. dollar. If you’re seeing energy revenues decline and you’re seeing pressure on the currency, it’s really hard for some of these governments to subsidize their national oil companies.

 

Categories
Podcasts

Why Bank Stocks are Falling?

BFM 89.9 discusses with Tony Nash about why bank stocks are falling — the US markets were dragged down by financial stocks as big banks JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reported their first-quarter earnings.

 

Find this podcast originally published at the BFM: The Business Station.

 

 

Show Notes:

BFM: Right now, taking a look at the wider global markets, we speak to Tony Nash, CEO of Complete intelligence. Tony, thank you for taking the time to speak to us today. The Fed book was released showing that almost all economic data activity has stopped and the question is how difficult will it be to restart it? Do you expect even more contraction?

 

TN: Very difficult. I mean, as we’ve talked about before, this is a government-mandated shut down, so it’s going to take a lot of fiscal stimulus to get things restarted. That’s why you’ve seen governments come out with such large stimulus programs. We don’t believe it’s a situation where central banks can wave a magic wand and use monetary policy to get things started. It’s not that kind of problem. This is a problem that has to be addressed with fiscal stimulus and direct spending from governments.

 

BFM: Is there enough fiscal stimulus so far?

 

TN: No. We’re two weeks into the second quarter, and when we look at all of the country, where the orders to not work are in place, it’s going to be at least two to three to four, maybe six weeks before some countries are up and running. And because a this is government-mandated order, those governments have to find a way to compensate individuals and companies for those close-down orders. Otherwise, we’d have catastrophic economic contraction. Spending is a key component of the GDP calculation. So if you count “don’t spending” as a substitutional factor to consumption and investment, you can still grow your economy or have it not contract as much as it would. Governments are feverishly trying to find find where they can spend, but I think many governments don’t really have the money. They accumulated so much debt over the last 10 or 20 years, they don’t have the money to be able to stimulate the way they need to.

 

BFM: Tony, Mexico’s been downgraded by Fitch to just one or just one level of Junk. Do you think this portends a rash of similar downgrades by other agencies?

 

TN: Oh, sure, absolutely. I think emerging and middle income markets are going to have a tough year. And that’s the case because we have a strong US Dollar and are likely going to have a stronger US Dollar. And on a relative basis, emerging market currencies are going to have a real uphill battle. So those emerging markets that are export-dependent will have a tough time, as well as we see consumption collapse. So I don’t want to sound entirely pessimistic, and it’s actually quite hopeful once we hit, say, July or August. But, Q2 is a very, very difficult situation. And the quicker governments can get their countries moving from an economic perspective, the better off we are.

 

BFM: So Tony, let’s move back to the US for a bit. The banks, the big banks, have started releasing the Q1 results with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citi or reporting significantly lower profits and more particularly huge provisions there, some as five times more than usual. What does this tell you about the broader economy? What are they expecting at least?

 

TN: Well, we’ve been trying to tackle all the bad news now. That’s for Q2. They can say, we accounted for that before and they can report better numbers in Q3. And this is all relative. A lot of companies are going to report horrific numbers for Q2. But, you know, the government is coming in and encourage loan repayment to be delayed and backed up the number of loans as well.

 

So should these provisions be larger than they are or as large as they are? Maybe that’s a prudent thing to do. But it looks really like there, you know, these provisions should have been in Q2, not necessarily in Q1. So I think they’re being conservative and I think that’s fine. But I think to some extent it’s really you just tacking all the bad news or what they expect to be the bad news into Q1 so that they can look better later in the year.

 

BFM: Yeah, that’s always what this was about to ask you, actually, Tony. Do you think they’re trying to pack as much bad news in this quarter as possible? Yes. But I think on on the call yesterday with Bank of America’s chief financial officer, he also seemed a bit, well, at sea in terms of really putting a finger on exactly what kind of quantums provisions might lead to the next quarter. Do you think they really know what’s happening around the corner, do you think?

 

TN: I don’t think they know. And I know that, the US banks are really, say take serious problems with like with PPP, these are small business loans. They’re just overwhelmed with the number of applications for these small business loans. That loan processing is truly inefficient and it’s not all the banks’ fault because it was, the US department pretty pretty quickly. So they’re kind of doing the best they can, but those are not their most efficient operations and we’re having to just adjust to where the attention is.

So I think they don’t know how bad it is. Until we know when some of these stay at home orders will be lifted, nobody really knows. And it’s the same thing in Asia as it is here. You’d see all these kids schooled, and it’s a problem, and so until it’s lifted, we really don’t know the full extent of the economic damage.

 

BFM: Well, speaking about Asia, even after better than expected March trade figures, People’s Bank of China cut medium term lending rates by 20 basis points. What do you read from what they just did?

 

TN: Honestly, guys, a 20 basis points isn’t going to do anything. I mean, nobody is going to take a loan out because it’s 20 basis points cheaper. What China needs is a very large fiscal stimulus package to make sure that their factory workers and other certain workers are given, maybe not a full wage, but enough of a wage to continue to get by. Our major worry for China this year is a very sharp contraction of industrial production, meaning manufacturing. We’re looking for contraction in exports starting in February, going through March and April, May, simply because the consumption markets are not there.

 

There is a global demand problem. So there is a demand problem domestically in China, but there’s also a demand problem in the rest of the world. So how can China, which is an assembly point and a maker of finished goods, how can China have kind of relatively normal export data when the rest of the world isn’t buying. It’s just not possible. So, you know, what we’re worried about is the industrial production contraction in China and we’re worried about deflation in China.

 

We think deflation will be worse in China than in any other parts of the world because of the dependence on manufacturing. So it’s manufacturing insures on making stuff, their workers aren’t working, and so they don’t have the money to buy stuff. And so that creates a huge gap in demand, which is likely deflationary, which is a big, big worry for us.

 

BFM: I’m wondering, though, I mean, if it’s not likely to move the needle by too much, why would it cut interest rates?

 

TN: I think a lot of central banks right now are going through the motions, hoping to kind of ride on the coattails of the big moves at the ECB, BOJ and Fed are doing, right? PBOC is is taking some big moves. So I’m not saying that they’re not doing their part. They’re definitely playing a part. But little moves like this, I think with what we’ve seen is generally a big action is taken. We saw this with the first Fed action and so does in the central bank with the OPEC move over the weekend, right? A big action is taking, and the markets really just going on, they don’t care that a big action has been taken. But what happens is a series of smaller actions are then taken, and markets take notice. So if anything, I think there’s 20 basis point cut is in one action among many that the PBOC is planning so that they can gradually feed that market expectation.

 

But again, the markets are really bored and not satisfied by a single big move. They’re looking for a series of moves, can be satisfied and to gradually kind of re-course positive expectations into markets. But 20 basis points is not going to do it, especially when you’re looking at a fall in manufacturing or fall in wages, a fall in consumption, and potential deflation. Nobody is going to take out a market rate loan when they have all these other worries to tick down the list.

 

BFM: All right. Thank you so much for spending some time with us this morning. That was Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence.

Categories
Podcasts

Could COVID-19 Finally Kill the EU?

The fallout from COVID-19 might result in the disintegration of the European Union while the flight to safe havens like the USD is yet another headache for the financial markets to stomach, according to Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence.

Produced by: Michael Gong

Presented by: Roshan Kanesan, Noelle Lim, Khoo Hsu Chuang

 

Listen to the podcast in BFM: The Business Station

 

Show Notes:

 

BFM: So for more on global markets right now, we speak to Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence. Welcome to the show, Tony. Now U.S. markets closed down sharply again last night, erasing all gains from the time President Trump was elected. So what’s your outlook for markets? Is it still too early to buy?

 

TN: Gosh I don’t know. Actually, we don’t really know if it’s a really good time to buy. At this point, it’s really hard to catch that kind of falling knife. But what we don’t see is a V-shaped recovery. We think we’re in the zone where the fall may start slowing down. But we believe the equity markets will trade in a pretty low range for the next couple of months. And that’s because we’re not really sure of the economic impact of the slowdown in the West.

 

This COVID-19 is a government-driven recession that countries have lawfully gone into. So a lot of the recovery has been how quickly the fiscal stimulus is put into the hands of consumers and companies, and how quickly those individuals will get back to work.

 

 

BFM: Well, oil continues to fall last night to record lows with the Brent at $26 per barrel. What’s your view on oil? I know you are seeing the stock market. We do not know where the bottom is. But for oil, are we hitting the bottom yet?

 

TN: We may not be, but we’re pretty close. Our view is that crude will bounce once the Saudi-Russia price standoff is resolved. So we actually see crude moving back into the 40s in April.

 

But after that, we expect a gradual fall back into the low 40s to the high 30s in May. So, you know, we’ll see the next several months’ prices will be depressed. And we think it’s going to be quite a while before we see oil at 50 bucks again.

 

 

BFM: Yeah, Tony, you would have seen the stock futures point in green, obviously quite buoyed by the ECB’s whatever-it-takes policy. In Asia this week, four central banks are meeting. I’d like to go off a piece of possible talk about Australia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia. Our central banks are expected to meet this week. What do you expect them to do in terms of responding to the market turmoil?

 

TN: So it can’t just be central banks. I think central banks will do whatever it takes. But you really have to get finance ministries involved because, again, this is a government-induced recession.

 

Governments have demanded that people stay at home due to COVID-19. They’ve demanded that places of business close. And so until finance ministries and treasury departments get involved to get money in the hands of consumers and companies, we’re in a pretty rough place and there’s a lot of uncertainty.

 

So I think the central bank activity is fine. But I think getting a fiscal stimulus out there right now and not waiting is what they need to do. The US is talking about doing something in mid-April, that is just not good enough.

 

We have to get fiscal stimulus out right now because the governments have brought this on. The markets did not bring this on. The governments brought this recession on.

 

 

BFM: Yeah, Tony, obviously the helicopter money is going beyond the conceptual stage right now. But from a fiscal standpoint, how many central banks in Asia can afford, you know, the financial headroom to pay these helicopter money solutions?

 

TN: Well, whether they can afford it and whether they need to afford it are two different questions. And so I think we have real issues with a very expensive U.S. dollar right now.

 

Dollar strength continues to pound emerging market currencies. And emerging markets and middle-income markets may have to print money in order to get funds in the hands of consumers and companies.

 

So I think you have a dollar where appreciation continues to force the dollar strength. And you also have middle income and emerging market countries who may have to turn on printing presses to get money into the hands of consumers. So I think for middle income and emerging markets, it’s a really tough situation right now. The dollar, I think, is both a blessing and a curse for the U.S. But the U.S. Treasury and the Fed have to work very hard to produce the strength of the dollar.

 

There is a global shortage of dollars, partly because it’s a safety currency, partly because of the debt that’s been accumulated in U.S. dollars outside of the U.S.. And if those two things could be alleviated, it would weaken the dollar a bit. But the Treasury and the Fed are going to have to take some drastic measures to weaken the dollar.

 

 

BFM: Well, how much higher do you think the green buck can go?

 

TN: It can be pretty high. I mean, look, it depends on how panicked people get. And it depends on how drastic, I’d say, money supply creation is in other markets.

 

I think there are real questions in my mind about an environment like this and around the viability of the euro. The EU is in a very difficult place. I’m not convinced that they can control the outbreak. I think they have a very difficult demographic position. And I don’t think Europe within the EU, have the fiscal ability to stimulate like it is needed. The ECB cannot with monetary policy, wave a magic wand and stimulate Europe.

 

There has to be fiscal policy, and the individual finance ministries in every single EU country cannot coordinate to the point needed to get money into the hands of companies and individuals. So I think Europe and Japan, actually, have the most difficult times, but Europe has, the toughest hole to get out of economically.

 

 

BFM: It really sounds like Europe has its work cut out for it at this point. What do you think? What could we see coming out of Europe in terms of any fiscal policy? Or will this pressure the EU, put more pressure on the EU?

 

TN: ECB doesn’t really have the mandate for fiscal policy, so they would have to be granted special powers to develop fiscal policy solutions. It has to be national finance ministries in Europe that develops that.

 

So the ECB can backup as many dump trucks as it wants, but it just doesn’t have the power for fiscal policy. So, again, our view is that there is a possibility that the Euro and the EU actually break up in the wake of COVID-19.

 

This is not getting enough attention. But the institutional weakness in Europe and the weakness of the banking sector in Europe is a massive problem and nobody is really paying attention to it.

 

 

BFM: Do you think this has been a long time coming?

 

TN: Oh, yeah. I mean, look, we’re paying for the sins of the last 20 years right now. And for Asia, you know, Asian countries and Asian consumers and companies have taken on a huge amount of debt over the past 20 years to fund the quote unquote, “Asian Century.” And I think a lot of Asian governments and countries will be paying the price over the next six months. The same is true in Europe. But the institutions there are very, very weak.

 

The U.S., of course, has similar problems, not because the U.S. dollar is so dominant, the U.S. can paper over some of those sins, although those problems are coming from the U.S. as well.

 

So, again, what we need to think about is this: The people who are the most affected by COVID-19 are older people. Those people are no longer in the workforce generally, and they’re no longer large consumers, generally.

 

OK. So all of the workforce is being sidelined or has been sidelined in Asia, is being sidelined in the West now, and consumption is being delayed for a portion of the population that is no longer consuming and is no longer working.

 

And so getting the fiscal stimulus out is important because those people who are contributing to the economy can’t do anything, right?

 

So and this isn’t to say we’re not caring about the older populations. Of course, we all are. But it’s a little bit awkward that the beneficiaries of this economic displacement are largely people who are not contributing to economies anymore.

 

 

BFM: All right. Tony, thank you so much for joining us on the line this morning. That was Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence.

 

Listen to the podcast on COVID-19 in BFM: The Business Station

 

Categories
Podcasts

Policy Action Kicks In As Bull Market Officially Ends

Various central banks are implementing emergency rate cuts to respond to the coronavirus and as the bull market ends. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether peak infections in China and South Korea are a light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Presented by: Wong Shou Ning, Lyn Mak, Julian Ng

 

 

The UK has launched a stimulus plan. Do you think the ECB will be pressured to do the same?

 

I’m sure they will. I don’t think they have that much power into interest rate cutting area – the rates are already right around zero. What they’ll most likely do: buy more government bonds, ease up on the reserve ratio, loan incentives, etc.

 

Europe is in a pretty bad position partly because COVID really attacks older people more aggressively than younger people, and the demographic profile of Europe is pretty terrible. So the ECB has to do something to help the economy. What they’re trying to do is to make sure the consumers don’t totally close their wallets and the banks don’t totally close lending. They’re really trying to stimulate banks to keep money moving.

 

 

In China and South Korea, there are indications that the infections have peaked. Pres. Xi visited Wuhan. Is this the light at the end of the tunnel?

 

I think it’s a natural progression and it’s quite possible that things are dissipating in China and things are improving. We see road traffic congestion gradually building back. That’s good for everybody. 2/3 recovered. We’re getting there. There may still be quite a lot of bounce back in March. Hopefully, in Q2, we’re back to an almost normal level.

 

 

Japan’s economy seems to be bordering on the recession. Do you think even the Bank of Japan has assisted on the current downward cycle? Have they got any more policy options left?

 

Central banks can do for the ending bull market. The BOJ really has been focused since 2012 on Abenomics to try to raise the inflation rate to 2%. They never achieved that. But they have helped some other things to stimulate the economy.

 

Japan’s in a very tough place because it’s tied to the Northeast Asian supply chain and it has the same demographic problem that Europe has. They really need to start circulating money. They can use these tools on reserve rates and loans, but how much further can they push it?

 

 

The fall in crude prices has also negatively affected shale oil producers. What’s your near and long-term outlook for the industry?

 

Shale for the US is energy security. Americans are tired of the political issues that they face in the Middle East to secure their energy supply chain. The current administration help the shale producers to survive including backing up their loans, working with banks to extend the payback period, etc. Shale is seen as a national asset by the current administration as they work very hard to make sure that those companies continue to be competitive and have the resources.

 

 

Listen to this podcast on the bull market at BFM: The Business Station.

Categories
Podcasts

Has COVID-19 Exposed Over-Dependence on Chinese Manufacturing?

The Business Station Malaysia spoke to Tony about his insights from the Federal Reserve’s minutes released yesterday as well as his thoughts on Chinese manufacturing as activity slowly ramps up again. How long will it take for global supply chains to return to a sense of normalcy?

 

Beyond that, this podcast also get into Germany’s economy as weak economic data dragged down the Euro, and thoughts on whether we’ll see Asian Central Banks cut rates due to the Covid-19.

 

Listen to the podcast in BFM: The Business Station 89.9.

Categories
Podcasts

Virus? What Virus? [Brexit’s impact, equities, coronavirus, etc.]

Brexit’s impact on the Sterling and tech stocks at nosebleed-highs are the subject of the day’s market discussion with Tony Nash, Founder and CEO of Complete Intelligence.

 

You forecasted that any loss in trade to be modest at best. Why do you say that?

 

“The nation tariff rate for non-EU member is something like 2.3%–2% on the price of anything is not going make a major difference. The trickier issue is the non-tariff barriers that Europe has. The UK has to navigate around those non-tariff barriers,” said Nash.

 

“In terms of country partners, the US is actually the largest trade partner of the UK. It’s around $67-68 billion a year. The second largest export partner in Germany at about $45 billion dollars. The EU as an aggregate partner is, of course, larger than the US. But the EU as a trade partner is stagnant. It’s not growing from the UK. It hasn’t grown noticeably since 2015/16. Meanwhile, the US is growing at a billion dollars per year.”

 

Where do you see the Pound this year?

 

“We’re seeing the Pound continuing to strengthen until about April. And once April hits, we see some of its strength tail off just a bit,” said Nash.

 

Listen to the Brexit’s impact podcast at BFM: The Business Station.

Categories
News Articles

6% The Best China Can Do

As markets overnight were bolstered by concerns over a virus spreading from China, we speak to Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, for his insight into the downgrade of China’s GDP forecast, the upside to US equities, and a fall in oil prices as a result of China’s coronavirus.

 

Presented by: Roshan Kanesan, Wong Shou Ning, Lyn Mak

 

Listen to the podcast from BFM: The Business Station. 

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Visual (Videos)

Trump’s Tariffs & This US vs China Trade War Are Hurting Chinese Manufacturers A Lot More

Wall St for Main St

 

Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviews first time guest, the founder of AI firm Complete Intelligence, Tony Nash. Tony has lived and worked in Asia for over a decade and has extensive experience working in mainland China working with the Chinese government, The Economist and global manufacturers. Follow Tony on Twitter here. During this 50+ minute interview, Jason asks Tony about the state of the Chinese economy, Chinese manufacturing and if President Trump’s tariffs and trade war is hurting Chinese manufacturers more than the US.

 

Watch full video
Categories
Visual (Videos)

Will China’s Economic Slowdown Cause a Global Recession?

Real Vision

 

Will gathering headwinds in China force the Asian superpower into a global recession — and could a Chinese downturn snowball into a global slowdown? Tony Nash, founder of the AI platform Complete Intelligence, explores the themes behind China’s slowing growth and weakening demography. The former head of Global Research for The Economist Intelligence Unit unpacks his outlook for Hong Kong’s diminished role in China’s future — and explores the broader question of whether frictions inside China’s social contract could imperil the expansive vision of an ‘Asian Century’ to come.

 

Watch full video