Complete Intelligence

CI Banner
Login

Author: admin

Categories
Editorials

Trump, TPP, yuan SDR make US-China Joint Commission trade talks a very different scene

22 November 2016 | CNBC

As the annual trade talks U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) gets underway in Washington D.C., the backdrop could hardly be more different from a year ago.

 

In 2015, each side in the series of annual meetings that cover everything from agriculture to cybersecurity had its own policy advantages, and policy continuity was the result of years of work by both sides.

Just a year ago, enthusiasm for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) also remained strong, with an official signing ceremony in Auckland, New Zealand, just months away. The agreement was positioned as America’s last, best hope to stay relevant in Asia’s economies.

 

And by design, the agreement positioned China as an outsider in its own neighborhood, instead of lining Asian countries up behind aging American assumptions around trade, intellectual property, and services in the world’s fastest-growing region.

Read more in CNBC
Categories
Podcasts

Final US Presidential Debate

Final US Presidential Debate: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton go head-to-head in the last TV debate before America decides who it wants in the White House.
In a special programme in the run-up to the debate, we consider what each candidate needs to do, in front of millions of viewers across the country, to improve their chances of winning.
All this with live guests throughout the programme. From Washington, Alexis Goldstein, activist and financial reform advocate, Peter Morici, Professor of International Business at the University of Maryland and from Singapore, Tony Nash, Chief Economist and Managing Partner at Complete Intelligence.
Listen to the podcast in BBC World Service
Categories
Editorials

Is China’s Market a Falling Knife

Everyone’s China’s market expert in the wake of the recent dramatic fall of Shanghai’s equity index. Everyone.

 

Despite the fact that the Shanghai Composite Index is up 72% from a year ago and is up 16% year to date — making this the third-best performing market globally — everyone knows China’s markets are a one-way bet. Short them. The market is stretched, and the Chinese government is panicking to prop it up. And everyone suspects the Chinese government can’t possibly know what it’s doing through its equity market meddling.

 

This, despite the fact that the Chinese government has brought more people out of poverty over the last 30 years than any organization — government or otherwise — in the history of mankind.

 

Perhaps that is precisely why the Chinese government is meddling in the market. They, like the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve in 2008, do not want to see small investors lose their savings and want to avoid systemic shocks.

Read More in Nikkei Asian Review
Categories
Visual (Videos)

US Election: How Will Results Impact Markets

Tony Nash, chief economist and managing partner at Complete Intelligence, discusses the US election and how the results could impact markets around the world. He speaks to Bloomberg’s Yvonne Man and Betty Liu on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.”
Watch Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
Categories
Editorials

Free Trade Ain’t Dead but a New Approach is Needed

27 June 2016 | CNBC

Last week’s Brexit vote by the United Kingdom came as a surprise to many. In a single day of broad democratic participation, the majority of U.K. voters chose to undo 40 years of integration at the heart of the world’s largest trading bloc. Free trade agreements (FTA) have had an impressive run.

 

Over the last 25 years, the value of trade has grown by five times, according to the World Bank. Unfortunately, trade growth has slowed in recent years, with the value of 2015 global trade down 14 percent, according to the CPB World Trade Monitor.

Weak global demand and slowing appetites for trade liberalization are the key factors. While free trade is not dead, the utility of incremental tariff reductions under FTAs is diminishing rapidly.

From a demographic perspective, free trade is evolving to meet political demands for trade “fairness” in the greying developed world as productivity and income growth grind to a halt.

Trade revisionism has dominated recent U.S. politics, to be sure, but the movement is also alive and well in other industrialized countries, particularly in Europe, and has already intensified post the Brexit vote.

Read More in CBNC