Complete Intelligence

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Is coronavirus the straw that’s going to break the camel’s back of the US bull market run?

Tony Nash, CEO and founder of Complete Intelligence, is a guest on Asia First of Channel News Asia and was asked if COVID19 (coronavirus) will stop the US bull market run, the why’s of the way market is moving, mandatory policies, and what investors should do. Below are the show notes:


Is coronavirus the straw that’s going to break the camel’s back of the US bull market run?

I don’t think so. I think what we’re seeing is a view that it’s good to be paranoid/worried. We need to remember that the markets here is in a pretty euphoric state, and had a rapid acceleration since then. A lot of markets are looking for a reason to be more defensive, some see that the market is a little overvalued.


Why are markets moving the way they are — they’re important parts of the value chain but they’re not China? 

In the US, we have business optimism, consumer optimism at high numbers. There is a lot of positive momentum here. COVID19 is a catalyst to bring for a lot of people at getting defensive. But the fatality rate is very small. 66% of China’s manufacturing capacity is back on. It seems China made a decision to make them working and spending again.


How about mandatory policies? What are the odds that the Fed will cut given the possible impact of Coronavirus on the economy?

I don’t think the Fed will cut, and they will wait to see how and if it gets bad. We have a really strong dollar now. And if other countries become more aggressive without the US being aggressive, the depreciation of their currencies become problematic for their debt market and their trade balance. We need to be careful about the central banks in emerging markets becoming more aggressive in supporting their economies. It’s very complex math from here on out.


Are you seeing Beijing not letting certain companies fail?

They are in a position where they can. China has put these measures in place. I don’t think anybody blamed China for the measures they’re taking to get their economy back on track. It’s other countries where there is a lower incidence of the virus, where people become more skeptical, from a central banking perspective.


What is the portfolio re-alignment that you are suggesting?

It looks like people are getting defensive. This isn’t at all surprising. People are waiting for a couple of weeks.

It seems that the broad market in the West is becoming aware of the risk of COVID 19, which is good for the robustness of markets in the medium term. As these investors get accustomed to COVID19, they will factor that into their risks. But right now, it seems to be a shocking risk and so short term we should just expect more volatility.


Watch the interview on Channel News Asia.

News Articles

Economic Outlook Conference 2020 in The Woodlands Highlights Local Economy

THE WOODLANDS, TX – “Innovative Solutions in a Diverse Community,” was the theme of the 2020 Economic Outlook Conference. The Woodlands Area Chamber of Commerce organizes the event annually to provide community members with insight as to how the economy is expected to perform each year.

Congressman Kevin Brady started the morning with a national update. He discussed tax reform, job growth in the United States, record low unemployment rates, the need for our country to win the innovation race, as well as factors that are halting our growth.

“The biggest obstacle of growth in America is our workforce,” he said. “Not having the workers we need is already slowing growth right now in America. It is slowing corporate growth, it is slowing small business growth … Nine of ten companies that hire blue-collar workers can’t find the workers they need. We’ve got to solve this problem if we want stronger growth over the next decade for the United States,” he said.

Gil P. Staley, CEO of The Woodlands Area Economic Development Partnership continued the day with a community/regional update. He announced that healthcare is now the largest employment sector in our service area; growing from 24 percent in 2019 to 26 percent in 2020. The second largest employment sector is energy at 22.4 percent, and the third is education at 17.8 percent. Healthcare represents 40 percent of the Top Major Employers, with 10,027 jobs.

The Top Ten Major Employers (Non-Retail) in order are as follows: Conroe Independent School District, Memorial Hermann The Woodlands Medical Center, ExxonMobil, Occidental, CHI St. Luke’s Health – The Woodlands Hospital, Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital, Alight Solutions, Lone Star College – Montgomery, Texas Children’s Hospital The Woodlands, and Huntsman Corporation.

Senior Economist at the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Jesse Thompson, provided an economy update. His main conclusion: Houston’s economy in 2020 is predicted to be, “positive, modest, but certainly not booming”.

Following Thompson’s presentation, an innovation panel, compiled of four executives, discussed how the latest trends in innovation help businesses solve economic issues. Innovation panelists included: Clint Brinkley, CEO of Your Business Solutions; Ashok Gowda, president and CEO, of Biotex, Inc.; Deanea LeFlore, senior director of corporate and community engagement for The Ion; and Tony Nash, founder and CEO of Complete Intelligence.

The afternoon concluded with a luncheon where keynote speaker, Dr. Renu Khator inspired the audience with her life story. Dr. Khator is Chancellor of University of Houston System and President of University of Houston. Within three years, she was able to establish UofH as a Tier One university.

Between intelligent speakers, and numerous networking opportunities, the Economic Outlook Conference 2020 provided an enlightening and productive experience for all involved.


This press release first appeared in Woodlands Online here:


Has COVID-19 Exposed Over-Dependence on Chinese Manufacturing?

The Business Station Malaysia spoke to Tony about his insights from the Federal Reserve’s minutes released yesterday as well as his thoughts on Chinese manufacturing as activity slowly ramps up again. How long will it take for global supply chains to return to a sense of normalcy?


Beyond that, this podcast also get into Germany’s economy as weak economic data dragged down the Euro, and thoughts on whether we’ll see Asian Central Banks cut rates due to the Covid-19.


Listen to the podcast in BFM: The Business Station 89.9.


Virus? What Virus? [Brexit’s impact, equities, coronavirus, etc.]

Brexit’s impact on the Sterling and tech stocks at nosebleed-highs are the subject of the day’s market discussion with Tony Nash, Founder and CEO of Complete Intelligence.


You forecasted that any loss in trade to be modest at best. Why do you say that?


“The nation tariff rate for non-EU member is something like 2.3%–2% on the price of anything is not going make a major difference. The trickier issue is the non-tariff barriers that Europe has. The UK has to navigate around those non-tariff barriers,” said Nash.


“In terms of country partners, the US is actually the largest trade partner of the UK. It’s around $67-68 billion a year. The second largest export partner in Germany at about $45 billion dollars. The EU as an aggregate partner is, of course, larger than the US. But the EU as a trade partner is stagnant. It’s not growing from the UK. It hasn’t grown noticeably since 2015/16. Meanwhile, the US is growing at a billion dollars per year.”


Where do you see the Pound this year?


“We’re seeing the Pound continuing to strengthen until about April. And once April hits, we see some of its strength tail off just a bit,” said Nash.


Listen to the Brexit’s impact podcast at BFM: The Business Station.


Disney+ subscribers more than double since November

Over 26 million people are now Disney+ subscribers since it launched in November. Announcing the company’s quarterly results, Disney’s chief executive Bob Iger said the numbers had “exceeded even our greatest expectations.” We get an analysis from Zoe Thomas, BBC North America technology correspondent.


Shares in electric vehicle maker Tesla have quadrupled in the last six months. That’s despite several analysts previously predicting the company would go bust, due to its high debts and spiraling costs. Tim Higgins, automotive and tech reporter at the Wall Street Journal, tells us why Tesla’s fortunes appear to have changed.


And as a London City worker – reportedly earning more than £1 million a year – is suspended for stealing sandwiches, we ask psychologist Emma Citron what drives people to behave in such ways.


Jamie Robertson is joined throughout the program by Tony Nash, Founder and CEO at Complete Intelligence, who’s in Houston in Texas and Stefanie Yuen Thio, joint managing partner at TSMP Law in Singapore.


Listen to the podcast at BBC Business Matters.