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Electoral College Confirms Biden Win

Tony Nash joins Jamie Robertson at the BBC Business Matters podcast and they discussed mostly the US Election as the electoral college confirms Biden win. Or is it too early to tell? They also talked about the recent Google meltdown and why it shouldn’t be a surprise. Also, do Chinatowns around the world suffer because of the anti-China movement? What about the vaccine — will it help us get back to normal at last? And, what’s wrong with California and why do businesses and people move out of the state and to Texas?

 

This podcast was published on December 15, 2020 and the original source can be found at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x194l551ll3

 

 

BBC Business Matters Description:

 

Joe Biden has been formally certified as the next president of the United States, with results from electoral colleges in all but one US state giving him 302 votes. This takes him over the 270 threshold required to win the presidency. The electors in each state are appointed to reflect the popular vote, which was won by Mr Biden in November. We get reaction from Washington DC and examine the US democratic process.

 

Two major cyber-incidents on Monday. The first you may well have noticed, the second will have almost certainly passed you by but may be in the long term far more significant. Google applications including YouTube, Gmail and Docs suffered a massive service outage, with users unable to access many of the company’s services. The second was a sweeping hacking campaign that may have attacked the US Department of Homeland Security, the Treasury and Commerce departments and thousands of businesses. We take a look at how working from home may be leaving businesses and government more vulnerable.

 

And we’re in the Philippines where the country has been showing an interest in the very English game of cricket. Throughout the programme, Jamie Robertson is joined by analyst Tony Nash in the United States and social welfare expert Rachel Cartland in Hong Kong.

 

 

Show Notes

 

 

JR: Joe Biden has been formally certified as the next president of the United States, but results from Electoral College is in all but one US state, giving him 302 votes. That takes him over the crucial 270 threshold, which is required to win the presidency. The electors in each state are appointed to reflect the popular vote which has won by Mr. Biden in November. OK, so, Tony, it’s all over. Pretty much, you reckon?

 

TN: I don’t know. I sat with you guys the day after the election and I said, everyone is pretty convinced that it was the end of the line then. And I said at that point, it’d be weeks, if not months before this was settled. And we still have a lot happening here. So honestly, I have no idea what’s going to happen on January 6th, but it’ll be interesting.

 

Look, Donald Trump is always interesting. You can never accuse the guy of being boring. So I wouldn’t be surprised. Actually, your commentator was not right about the president of the Senate, which is Mike Pence, actually has to accept the electors.

 

JR: It’s not just a question of counting. It’s a question of accepting that count as a right.

 

TN: So the speaker of the House and the president, the Senate have to accept the electors. So if they don’t, then it goes to the House. But there’s one vote per state and there are more Republican delegate delegations to the House of Representatives than there are Democrat delegations. If you look purely a state, no. So I actually have no idea how it’s going to end. I have no idea what’s happening on January 6th. But it’s not as simple as this was done because there are, I think, six or seven states where the Republican electors actually protested and actually sent their electors as well. So you have states divided and protesting, it can be problematic, so I have no idea what’s going to happen.

 

JR: I certainly haven’t heard the fat lady sing in us. Tony who feels like we might be losing a battle somewhere here, or do you think it’s not as easy to say as that?

 

TN: First of all, there is more hacking and there’s more information lost than most people are aware of. This is terrible, but I don’t think we should be naive and believe that this is rare.

 

JR: Why would it become public, though? It’s quite interesting that I mean, why tell people this has happened?

 

TN: Because so many companies have been exposed. It’s 18,000, I think. But I think publicly traded companies never disclose that  happens to them, even though they’re obligated to disclose, they don’t govern institutions. You know, it happens all the time. And it’s a daily occurrence.

 

My company is on Google infrastructure for part of our work. And what worries me is we’ll never know what information was exposed, especially with the Google hack. And I think there should be a requirement that companies let people know what has been exposed, but we’ll never know and we’ll never know what was lost and what was exposed. Companies have their their corporate secrets, their trade secrets on their cloud drives. And we never really know if things were exposed. And we never you know.

 

JR: Tony, there’s a Chinatown in Houston. And there’s research to back this up. Chinatowns have suffered worse than many other communities in the U.S. Is it connected to an anti China feeling, do you think? Or is there something else going on here that I haven’t seen?

 

TN: I don’t think there is. I lived in Asia for 15 years and my entire social community for much of that time was Chinese. I understand it at a different level. I do think there is a sensitivity among the Chinese community that they may be targeted for this. So I don’t necessarily believe that is the case. At least it’s not in Houston. Maybe it is in New York. But in Houston, I don’t feel that’s the case at all.

 

JR: I just want to continue our conversation she had earlier, which is about China or at least Chinese Institute of Chinese Chinatowns in the United States, which may have been losing more business than most other communities, possibly because they’re Chinese. And Tony gave a very nuanced view saying, but perhaps there’s a perception this is happening, but it may not be actually true in reality. Right, Tony? A vaccine, is it a shot in the arm for the economy as well? I mean, my impression I got from that interview with Constance Hunter from KPMG was that he thinks it’s going to take a bit of time, but it may be just the light at the end of a tunnel, which everybody needs.

 

TN: Just put the vaccine into context. So fatality rates for Covid, at least in Texas, are a third today of what they were just in September. So it’s more the government halting business that.

 

JR: Can I just challenge you on that? You say it’s a third time. It is a third of the total. But on the other hand, you’re having many more many more cases identified than you were in September. I mean, that may be in absolute terms. I’m not quite sure whether if you’re getting more cases actually reported, if it’s a third of the ones being being reported.

 

TN: More deaths in August.

 

JR: Yes.

 

TN: August 5th and 6th, we had 229 deaths in Texas now were around 139, 146, 121, 128, OK. So right now, the thing that we need to caution both on absolute and percentage numbers, we’re a third as a percent. We’re a third better. We’re a third of what they were in September even.

 

It’s great that we have a vaccine. I’m not trying to pull back on that.

 

But the problem here is that the government pulled the plug on people’s livelihoods. Hundreds of thousands of companies in America are out of business because state and local governments shut economies. That is a fact.

 

JR: You don’t think people would have been frightened to go out, frightened to go to restaurants, frightened to go to cinemas?

 

TN: I believe that people are responsible and they would have washed their hands and done all this stuff, worn masks, all that stuff.

 

Government officials killed local economies. What’s happening right now is federal government officials have not put the stimulus out that they should have put out in August. The package that came out in May was only supposed to last three months. They were supposed to put another package out in August, September. They didn’t. So we’re in on one hand, it’s state and local governments that killed economies and killed hundreds of thousands of companies and millions of jobs. On the other hand, it’s the federal officials who wanted to negotiate small details while people starve. It is government on both ends of this that are harming individuals, killing companies, harming families. It’s terrible.

 

JR: What is wrong with California? What’s so great about Texas?

 

TN: I have an artificial intelligence company in Texas. So we are in a technology ecosystem here in Texas. And Oracle, as you noted, just announced on Friday, they’re coming. Tesla’s moved.

 

I lived in California during the first Internet bubble of the late 90s, early 2000s. And what I find about California now is especially around the talent. They’re good. There’s nothing wrong with the talent there. It’s good. But it’s not the world class that it once was. It’s really expensive and it’s very arrogant. Silicon Valley is, kind of, to use an Asian analogy, it’s the Singapore of the U.S. It’s entitled, expensive, and kind of OK, good, but not great.

 

I’m in Texas and I moved my company from Singapore to Texas because I can find a very experienced technical person who will roll up their sleeves and actually do hard work. People are pretty affordable. The quality of skills here are great and it’s a fantastic business environment.

 

JR: This may sound a little bit like an Englishman talking, but it’s not to do with the weather, is it? And there is more to that question to mention immediate, bearing in mind for the rather high temperatures and wildfires.

 

TN: California’s got the Pacific Ocean and beautiful weather. People are coming here initially because they have to. But then they want to because they realized there are a lot of really nice people here. And I loved it. I lived in California for a long time and I voluntarily moved to Texas because of the business environment. I’ve been here four years now.

 

JR: And Tony, I mean, cricket may be played in far flung things, but in Texas, I don’t think so.

 

TN: You would be surprised, Jamie, 20 miles from my house is the largest cricket complex in America. That’s amazing. So Texas has a very large Indian community and we have the largest cricket complex in America.

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Podcasts

BBC Business Matters: Purdue Pharma pleads guilty to criminal charges for opioid sales

Tony Nash joins Rahul Tandon at the BBC for Business Matters podcast where they discussed the opioid sales and crisis in the United States as the maker of OxyContin painkiller, Purdue Pharma, agreed on a plea bargain and an $8 billion settlement. They also discussed Tesla’s rise in the market, the different protests in the world like in Hong Kong, Thailand, and the US, social gatherings in the COVID era with hockey, football, the Indian festival called Durga Puja, and dogs VS cats.

 

This podcast was published on October 22, 2020 and the original source can be found at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x18zvp5cvgn

 

BBC Business Matters Description:

 

The maker of OxyContin painkillers has reached an $8.3bn settlement and agreed to plead guilty to criminal charges to resolve a probe of its role in fuelling America’s opioid crisis. Purdue Pharma will admit to enabling the supply of drugs “without legitimate medical purpose”. The deal with US Department of Justice resolves some of the most serious claims against the firm. But it still faces thousands of cases brought by states and families. We hear from Pete Jackson, who got involved in advocacy after losing his daughter in 2006. He thinks that only jail time for those responsible can bring any sense of justice to bereaved families.

 

Also in the programme, Kolkata in India is celebrating the Hindu festival of Durga Puja. Millions of people normally go to temporary temples or pandals that are set up as the city shuts down for four days, and it’s an important part of the city’s economy. But as the BBC’s Rahul Tandon reports, it’s now at the centre of a court battle over striking a balance between saving the economy and saving lives.

 

Plus – we discuss Tesla’s tremendous results as well as football finance. Premier League football club Manchester United registered a $30m loss in the pandemic. Kieran Maguire wrote The Price of Football and is a lecturer in sports finance at Liverpool University, and tells us what’s behind the loss. Meanwhile, there is talk of Manchester United being one of the clubs in a proposed new European Super League. Tom Greatrex of the English Football Supporters Association is a member of the FA Council, which oversees the game in England, and gives us his reaction to the idea.

 

With guests Jodi Schneider in Hong Kong and Tony Nash in Houston

 

Show Notes

 

RT: Tony, this is an important settlement, isn’t it? Because the scale of the opioid crisis in the United States is huge.

 

TN: Yeah, it’s terrible because Purdue was pushing doctors to prescribe this medicine to people knowing that it was addictive. So there is culpability through the company and into the shareholders. They need to do what’s called piercing the corporate veil. They need to go to the investors behind it, which is the Sackler family. And they are culpable because, as your guest said, they were pulling the strings. So there has to be accountability. Otherwise, why have a legal system? Why have any consumer protections?

 

RT: You say that the fact that they are culpable, obviously, they would deny that. But as we heard from the father there who lost his daughter, he wants to see further justice. Do you think that’s going to happen? And if that is the timing of this settlement significant coming before the elections? Because we know President Trump had said that he wanted to deal with the opioid crisis. Are you surprised that when this judgment has been now reached, this settlement has been reached?

 

TN: I really don’t know. It may be meaningful. I really haven’t thought about that. But you’re right. President Trump really has focused on the opioid epidemic and partly because a lot of his voters are people who’ve been affected by it. For them to see some sort of accountability is critically important. But do I think there will be? I think almost everybody is skeptical that there will actually be accountability for anybody who’s a billionaire. Like nobody who’s a billionaire pays for anything. So in America, it doesn’t happen. So until the Sangar family is bankrupt, I don’t think most Americans will be happy.

 

RT: Do you think the opioid crisis has been overshadowed, obviously, this year because of the coronavirus that to some extent people have forgotten about it?

 

TN: It hasn’t necessarily played high within media, but I think those families who are affected, they’re affected by it every day of the week. So I don’t think on a personal level it’s disappeared. But certainly in terms of kind of column space and air time, it’s disappeared.

 

RT: As Jodi said, it’s not just Hong Kong. It’s not just Thailand. We’ve seen these huge protests in the US. Black Lives Matter protests taking place there as well. Some thought the year of the protests was over. Clearly not.

 

TN: Thailand is a different case because this is a continuation of probably 20 years of protests in Thailand, going back to Thaksin, coming to power. And when you think about Thailand presently, General Pride has been in power for years. He wasn’t elected. He was installed by the monarchy and by the military to rule over Thailand. So you have a Thai population that’s become accustomed to democracy, who is outspoken enough to say we actually want democracy back. And it’s different. Hong Kong is similar, but it hasn’t quite gone as far as Thailand. The CCP hasn’t necessarily installed generals overseeing Hong Kong yet, but Thais want their democracy back.

 

RT: Elon Musk is somebody of really out of the news. But it is one of the business stories of this year that the rise and rise of Tesla.

 

TN: Tesla now trades at about 1,100 times earnings, which is incredible. Maybe a 30 times earnings, but not one thousand one at a time. What’s really interesting to note is Tesla’s chief accounting officer just filed an insider sales record to sell thousands of shares. I think it’s 50 some thousand shares. It’s interesting that their chief accounting officer is actually selling. It’s a sign that the price is very high. It’s great that they’re reporting earnings. That really hasn’t been enough time to look at their books to understand what’s been done. But I’m glad Tesla is making money. It’s just hard for them to do it in a consistent way.

 

RT: Tony, I think you are you’re a fan of the Navratri festival, are you not?

 

TN: Absolutely, yes. We celebrate every year, and I’m not Hindu, but my youngest son is Indian. And so we always try to make a point of the cultural festivals and we just love it. It’s fantastic.

 

RT: Social gatherings have become part of the presidential election campaign, haven’t they? We’re seeing two very contrasting strategies here from Donald Trump, who has larger gatherings, and Joe Biden who doesn’t.

 

TN: It’s interesting to see the turnout, it’s interesting to see the response and I think in most places, getting crowds together is really important with elections. In the US, elections have become somewhat sanitary. We saw this really start with Obama and we saw it accelerate with Trump, where people get together in big crowds in a way that they haven’t for quite some time. So it’s become important to the US election cycle.

 

RT: As we come out of the pandemic, many things are going to change. We’re probably going to do a lot more online shopping than go to shops. Is that something that we’re going to see with sports? It’s something that clubs are going to get going to have to get used to, which is maybe less fans in the stadium. And it is going to become more of a televised experience, even if that’s difficult for some of the smaller clubs.

 

TN: I’m not an ice hockey fan, so I don’t know what Manchester United is so tired.

 

RT: They’re a football club. But I’m glad that you confirmed what I’ve always thought that they played.

 

TN: I’m an American football fan, college football fan, very avid. I’ve been to the stadium to see college football games. And and it’s great. I think to take measures, you wash your hands and nobody got sick and nobody died. It was great. As people socialize, this can happen. And if people need to increase the state attendance at stadiums from 25 percent and then ramp it up, that’s fine.But we’ve got to re-socialize. We have to redo this stuff. And I’ve done it. I’m going to do it again in a couple of weeks. There is such a thing as normal and we can get back there.

 

RT: Dogs and cats, huh?

 

TN: Dogs, definitely dogs. I actually got a new dog just before Covid hit. He’s a beautiful pound puppy and his name is Buddy. It was the perfect timing. I understand all these people getting dogs during Covid and other pets, although not cats, but definitely dogs during Covid. And it‘s just a great companion to be around.

 

RT: Has that helped you during this period a lot?

 

TN: I lived in Singapore for 15 years and we got a dog there that was a smaller dog back here. Our new dog is bigger and he makes me walk him twice a day. So it’s good. I haven’t been able to lounge around from sunrise to sunset. And he’s very needy, which is necessary. I’ve got three kids and they’re needy, but the dog is needy in a different way. So I’m more determined and more selfish about behavior, actually. So it’s been really good to have him because he doesn’t stop.

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Audio and Podcasts Visual (Videos)

Trump closes the Republican National Convention

Our CEO and founder Tony Nash joins the BBC for Business Matters podcast where they discussed Trump’s speech in the Republican National Convention, the 2020 US Presidential Election, TikTok’s 90-day deadline for its US operations, Hurricane Laura, the future of work with thermal scanners, etc., and a company where you can book celebrities to record messages for you or loved ones.

 

This podcast was published on August 28, 2020 and the original source can be found at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x18wyjn7kj1

 

BBC Business Matters Description:

Donald Trump accepts the presidential nomination in a speech live from the White House. This hasn’t been entirely well received – with critics arguing using federal property for a campaign speech is unethical.

 

Walmart joins Microsoft in bid for TikTok’s US operations. TikTok has been given 90 days to sell its US arm to an American firm or face a ban in the country. Donald Trump has alleged it shares its user data with Beijing – claims it denies. Earlier on Thursday the firm’s boss resigned ahead of the impending ban.

 

Also in the programme, we look at the Federal Reserve’s new plan to revolutionise how it sets policy, including interest rates.The bank will now let inflation rise to allow the economy to produce more jobs.

 

Plus, what future do New York offices have post-pandemic?

 

And we hear from the boss of Cameo, a company through which you can book actors, musicians and sports stars to record a message for you or your loved ones.

 

Show Notes

 

ST: Who do you think President Trump will be trying to appeal to tonight? I mean new voters or do you think he’ll be going for his base? What do you think?

 

TN: He’s obviously going for his base. I’m really confused by what your guest said I’m not actually sure if she’s watched the convention but I think he’s really going after his base and I think what he’s also going after is independent voters.

 

There was a poll out yesterday from Rasmussen, who’s the only pollster who got the 2016 election right. And it shows Biden leading Trump by one point. So there was a 10 point spread in early July with Biden leading. According to Rasmussen, Biden is only leading by one point at the moment. It’s a really interesting convention in terms of you had people like Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, a guy named Maximo Alvarez who’s a Cuban immigrant.

 

It’s a really interesting invention in terms of how people are looking at the future and how people are really wondering what American values are. I think that’s what is under discussion right now and what’s being presented is a dramatic contrast around really civil unrest. And by civil unrest I mean riots in cities versus
what American values are. And I think they’re putting that out for debate, hoping that Joe Biden will actually
debate Donald Trump during the election season, so they can talk about these issues face to face.

 

ST: Well that’s not an under debate is it? I mean that will be going ahead? The issue…

 

TN: Oh no. There are people who are recommending that Joe Biden doesn’t. Hillary Clinton was out. A number of US senators and congress people were out, saying, that Joe Biden should not debate Donald Trump and that would be an incredible disservice to the American people.

 

ST: Let’s look at one of the other points that our guests brought up. The incumbent would normally want to be promoting a sort of really optimistic and positive view of the country. That is incredibly difficult to do when you are in the middle of a pandemic.

 

TN: If you look at the number of tests. If you look at how things are going. If you look at even in New York. Today was the first day that there were zero deaths. So even in New York, you can’t necessarily argue that things are not getting better. But in watching the convention. I’m a political nerd. So, I watch these things. I think the democrat convention was really negative. The republican convention, the speeches that I’ve seen have been very, very positive and very, very encouraging. So, I think there really is a contrast between those two.

 

ST: Do you think, Tony would you agree with that because there’ll be people who would characterize bike dance in a very different way in the States.

 

TN: Yeah, to be honest I don’t think many people in the US are thinking about that. I definitely understand the Chinese perspective but I think if you look at from the buyer’s perspective. Doug Mcmillan at Walmart very smart. Sachin Nadella at Microsoft very smart. What does Microsoft get out of it? They get an ad network and they can compete with Google for a very innovative ad driven product. What does Walmart get out of it? They compete with Amazon and they can get a very interesting demographic for shopping and keep them as they grow. So, I think from the buyers perspective, it would be very interesting. In terms of the price, look these things come and go. I think, they’re not going to buy it for a song. They’re going to buy it for real money.

 

People in China are going to be enriched from this and it’s not as if you can transition that technology from China to the US in 90 days. There’s going to be a transition period. There’s just going to have to be oversight from the US side in terms of security and other things. So, I understand that China feels that way. China has a history of a lot of problems. I was in Asia for 15 years. I saw firsthand a lot of what Chinese have
done on the tech side. There are sins on both sides. So nobody is innocent here.

 

ST: I just wonder whether you could give us an update on Hurricane Laura because you’re there in Texas and I understand you have avoided sort of the worst of it. I think the phrase from the governor was dodged a bullet but I mean, no less there has been damage.

 

TN: I wanted a hurricane and I didn’t get one. It went to Louisiana instead. I’m trying to make the best of it but we expected it’ll hit us about 1 AM and we had clear skies all night. So, it is a serious hurricane. There is serious damage. In Houston, we went through this three years ago with Hurricane Harvey. We lived through that. We saw the wreckage and it’s pretty awful actually. What will happen is, we’ll see this in the news for the next few days.

 

But when you have standing water in homes for more than say 48 or 72 hours, the entire home needs to be gutted because of the mold and because of all the problems that come as a result of being flooded. So these poor people who are in the path of this, they are going to have to be dealing with this for weeks. They’re going to be volunteer crews that go out to these homes to tear up the inside of their homes and help these guys just find a place to live.

 

ST: Indeed, it’s not just the initial impact that we see and hear about so often. It’s the ongoing impact as well isn’t it?

 

Tony, let’s ask you about the big cities within Texas. We heard about New York from Samira but what sort of
impact has been seen in places like Austin or Houston or Dallas?

 

TN: We have two offices in Texas. One is in Houston, one is in Dallas. I think, the one that’s been the most stark is in is in Dallas. And we have an office in downtown and don’t forget we had the protests that were very aggressive in Dallas, as well. That really pushed a lot of people out of central cities mid-summer. It wasn’t just COVID, it was also the unrest in cities. Our team would largely go into the office. They had the optionality to stay home, too. Some of them stayed home but we’ve kept our offices open as long as the local authorities would allow us to do that.

 

ST: Let’s talk about the technology that Samira was finding out about in her report and the the temperature sensors, but some of the technology that would mean that you could walk into as an employee, you could walk into a building, you wouldn’t physically have to touch anything until you actually go to your office desk or whatever. Do you think as people we’re becoming more accustomed, now, because of this? We’ve had to become more accustomed to quite sort of invasive surveillance technology many people would see this?

 

TN: When I lived in Asia, I think, we had five or six pandemics. So, temperature scanners and these sorts of things in public spaces are just normal, you just get used to it even when there’s not a pandemic. So, I think in the US and in Europe, if that sort of stuff is to become the norm I really don’t think it’s that big of a deal. I think, it’s something that people will get used to and they’ll be quite comfortable with it.

 

ST: Is interesting because both of you obviously have the experience that you have but i’m speaking from someone who lives in London. I’m obviously still working from home but I have been back into the office and the temperature scanner there does feel alien. Simply because it is something which we are not used to. I wonder though if I’ve been in the office or going into the office every day, that by now actually I would just breeze through it and wouldn’t even give it a second thought. It is interesting how people are adjusting and adapting to so many different things in the world of work and actually our offices and our city centers go the same way. Tony?

 

TN: If you go through airports a few hundred times with temperature scanners on it like people in Asia do, you just get used to it and I have a feeling that will be more and more common.

 

ST: We will have to see how it progresses. And indeed, how the world of work changes in many other ways. Possibly some that we haven’t even anticipated as well.

 

Let’s just imagine for a moment. It’s your birthday or you get a promotion or you get engaged, maybe. Who would you like to get a congratulatory video from not just your mum or your best friend but perhaps your favorite celebrity? Well that is what a business called Cameo offers actors musicians sports stars they would record a message for you of course, for a fee. One, can you know, access celebrities if you make someone a celebrity you shouldn’t have access to them or is this just a bit, I don’t know. What do you reckon tony? Would you be up for this for your next birthday? Pick your favorite celebrity.

 

TN: Of course, I would love a happy birthday message from Samuel Jackson, why not, right? So look, people want it, they want to pay for it, celebrities want the money. So, no harm done. I think it’s a great idea.

 

ST: I’m actually, I’m on the website now I was having having whether or not i could find Samuel Jackson in this amount of time. I couldn’t be sure but I have to say, I don’t know whether you both are thinking that this could cost thousands but this is how can i put this? Office whip round birthday money territory. This is sort of attainable for uh the whip round for getting your colleague a present. As technology changes Tony, these sorts of things there’s always going to be a market and this could be someone who’s going to exploit this idea. That actually, you can get a celebrity to do this particularly in downtime with Coronavirus.

 

TN: You can, but I think there’s a window on this because technology could have something like a film that looks like Samuel Jackson, saying happy birthday to me within a few years. I mean, that’s available now but probably widely available any time. So, I think there’s a window on this of maybe five years or something until technology really fills the gap on it.

 

ST: Surely you’d know, surely you’d be able to know that Samuel Jackson. We are out of time on the program today but huge thanks to my guest James Mega, China editor economy at Bloomberg. Tony Nash who’s in Houston, Texas and thank you for listening this is Business Matters on the BBC World Service.

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Podcasts

Top UK adviser refuses to quit for lockdown breaches

Our CEO and founder Tony Nash joins the Business Matters for an hour of discussion on Dominic Cumming, recent headlines in the USA, people in restaurants, government stimulus, opportunities in the pandemic, how careers and schools have changed, and what sorts of things are they buying online?

 

A related QuickHit episode, which you can watch here: We’re not going to normalize.

 

BBC’s description:

We talk to the BBC’s Politics Correspondent, Rob Watson about what Dominic Cummings’ future may hold. With our special guests Sushma Ramachandran, of the Tribune in Delhi, and Tony Nash, of Complete Intelligence in Houston, Texas, we talk about how India and parts of the United States are easing their lockdowns. We also look at how many people are looking to change careers, whether forced to or not.

 

Listen to the Business Matters podcast on BBC.

 

Show Notes

 

BBC: What do you feel about Dominic Cummings, especially in Texas or the USA?

 

TN: I don’t think anybody is surprised by this, that politicians have one rule for themselves and another one for everyone else.  Britain is not exceptional. What it shows is that we actually have a vibrant media that will report on this. That is the positive thing coming out of this. Every country has a politician that breaks the rules, but not every media in every country is brave enough to report it.

 

BBC: What are the headlines in the USA? What’s grabbing people’s attention?

 

TN: It’s an ongoing news cycle of trying to shame the states that open up. It’s really tiring, quite frankly.

 

BBC: When you say “shaming,” who do you refer to? I thought they all went up?

 

TN: They are planning to. But the early states when there’s an outbreak, there’s a very huffy approach to pointing to places like Texas, where I live, and saying that we’ve done it wrong, and saying that places with extended quarantine have done it right. Although, the incident rates in places like Texas are lower than in other places like New York or California. What’s really hitting in the media here is really trying to shame states, which are pretty much the southern states that are opening up first. There’s a stereotype that southerners are just stupid. And so it plays into this coastal narrative that southerners don’t know what they’re doing. Although the incidence in these states is lower than the coastal states.

 

BBC: What about the businesses that are opening up again? The restaurants, and staffing? Are there people around?

 

TN: It was a long holiday here, and I just took a short trip. The hotel I went to in, the restaurants I went to, said that they are understaffed. And although you see a number of 25-30 million people unemployed in the U.S., what these business owners have been telling me is that they cannot get the staff to come back because there’s a temporary unemployment kicker. So the longer people stay out of work, the more they get. They get an additional kicker from the U.S. And these are temporary. These will go away over time. In most cases, these are voluntary unemployment because they are making more money on unemployment than they would be going back in there job before.

 

BBC: Sounds like that it’s a problem that will be sorted out?

 

TN: It will over time. But there will be a lag. I think when people are accustomed to making more not working, they will question themselves as to whether or not they want to go back to their job, which is not a bad thing questioning their vocation. These are all good questions to ask.

 

BBC: Do you think the government will try to help green industries and take a leap role in new economies. Like new ones, as a result of this pandemic?

 

TN: I think we have. We have subsidies for green industries since, I think, 1997. It’s possible that there new ones as a result of this pandemic. I have a very different view around the revitalization of economies. The fact is governments stopped economies around the world. This is not a market failure. So I don’t care if you are a capitalist or a socialist system. Governments closed businesses. So if governments closed businesses, businesses have the responsibility and the accountability to restart those businesses. Because if they don’t, we’ll see civil unrest and political risks in ways that all these governments have not considered before they closed their economies down. I don’t think that this is a capitalist-socialist issue. It’s a fact that the government intervened to halt the economies around the world.

 

BBC: In what direction will they regenerate the economies or bring economies back to their level before?

 

TN: People are not really happy with the level of stimulus that they are receiving, because, at the end of the day, people are pointing at the government for stopping this. And if you isolate people for too long, they get really restless. We are facing real political issues and social unrest issues, unless governments, regardless of the economic structure in the economy, we will face real problems.

 

BBC: For entrepreneurs, is this a good time to start a business?

 

TN: I think it’s a good time for people to change direction, because any future potential employers, if you say, “I changed direction in the wake of COVID,” no ones going to question your motivation. They are going to understand that this was the time that everyone reassessed. For businesses that I’ve built, I built a business unit for The Economist. And one of them saw our most rapid growth during the last recession in 2009, very rapid growth. I think there are a lot of opportunities if you play it right. But it’s also a good time to start over.

 

BBC: Where would you put your money on? If you want to change career?

 

TN: I would put it on me. I run a business. I think we’ll see a lot of food startups. I hear a lot of people talk about food startups. Within 18 months, a lot of those will be out. But they will learn new skills. People are also going very local, which is a good thing.

 

I think people have been able to slow down. They realize that they wanted to focus on small things. I’m not sure how long this will last but this is good for a lot of people.

 

BBC: What will be the role of universities now? Will people think it’s a waste of time? Will the role of schools change?

 

TN: I think the role of universities has traditionally been to teach you how to think, not necessarily how to do. If universities are then focused on how-to-think activities, that’s a much better role for them. I don’t think vocational training is the best use of money for universities. They are moving toward helping people how to think, not how to do.

 

I run a company. I don’t need somebody with PhD. I just need somebody with very basic skills that they can learn through online courses and some practical evidence of what they do. In a lot of these things that are very vocationally-based, you don’t need a degree. You just need to know how to do it.

 

BBC: What have you been buying on a lockdown? We’re not going to shop as much as we used to?

 

TN: For some reason, we purchased two new skateboards. Like everyone else, we are no different on gardening. All of these have been fantastic to go very local and spend time with neighbors.

 

Will we go back to the stores? I don’t think we’ll do as much shopping, but I think we need the social interaction of shopping. There’s just something about the social interaction of shopping, which is necessary to our human condition. I go to Walmart here, and there’s just an element that’s necessary.

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Podcasts

Countries differ on ending coronavirus lockdown

Countries and governments around the world are starting to feel the strain of coronavirus lockdown, with some showing signs of easing up restrictions. But the World Health Organisation is urging serious care, saying it cannot be done in a hurry.

 

Also in the programme, the EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager has advised governments to prevent companies being taken over by Chinese firms.

 

Amazon’s share price surged after the company announced it would take on another 75,000 workers amidst increased demand, after already hiring some 100,000. Professor Scott Galloway at the New York University Stern School of Business discusses how we should interpret the move.

 

The world’s oil producers under OPEC and allies have agreed a record oil deal that will slash global output by about 10%. Paul Hickin, Associate Director at Platts, explains what this means for the future of oil prices.

 

Plus, with the internet full of memes and videos to help us get through uncertain times, the BBC’s Vivienne Nunis speaks to some of those creating internet content to make us smile during the long lockdown days. All through the show we’ll be joined by Rachel Cartland, author in Hong Kong and Tony Nash, chief economist at Complete Intelligence in Houston, Texas.

 

Listen to this podcast at BBC Business Matters.

 

 

Podcast Notes

 

BBC: What kind of restrictions are you subject to in Houston?

 

TN: Really it’s just mass gatherings, and there is a state home order. There are a lot of people outside. There are exceptions to essential businesses. And so a number of people going to work. Not many people to be honest.  I’ve never seen a lot of my neighbors outside, where they were out all the time.

 

BBC: That’s a positive of it, isn’t it? WHere you are, the restrictions aren’t as tight as they are in California and New York

 

TN: Texas has a pretty low death rate. So haven’t really put… there are restrictions. Dallas is on lockdown. Houston is on lockdown but not as stringent as Dallas. San Antonio and Austins are on lockdowns. But some people do get out of work. Some people, not a lot.

 

BBC: Is there a talk in Texas when it will be lifted given that the state is not as badly affected as other parts of America?

 

TN: The governor said that this week, he would announce when he would put an order together to get people back to work. I think you’re starting to see a real movement in the US. People are tired of being at home, they’re tired of being worried about their income, claiming unempoyment, seeing their friends being laid off or their friends claiming unemployment. It’s a scary time for people and regardless of the fiscal stimulus that’s coming out from DC, people just want to work.

 

BBC: Are people are scared that if they won’t catch the virus, their loved one will?

 

TN: They are. People are nervous about it. Some people are wearing masks. But I think what we’ve seen generally is it’s largely older people or people with tertiary, secondary conditions. It’s a worry. But people are adults and they can take precautions.

 

I think part of what may come about is a reverse action where people who are at risk may be advised to stay in and take precautions, while people who want to go to work are adivsed to go to work and take precatutions. What’s the difference in Texas is that we don’t have mass transit like New York does or San Francisco or some of the other places that are affected. Although some of those don’t like Seattle doesn’t have that mass transit. We don’t have those things here because we’re not densely populated. There is not much intermingling as you would get in London, Hong Kong, Singapore, or Beijing.

 

BBC: Do you see any evidence of this kind of thing is already happening or is this a fair of China kind of xenophobia in a way?

 

TN: I think there’s truth on both sides. It’s taking awhile to figure it out.

 

BBC: Should governments be buying stakes in companies whether that be in Europe, US, or whatever to make them American, or French, British or whatever?

 

TN: It depends on the company. If you look back in the Piraeus supporting Greece or the hydroelectric company in Portugal, Europoean governments were happy to sell those that 10 years ago. Was that the right thing to do? I’m not sure. But they’re quite happy to sell at that time. But now that the nationalistic environment has changed, I think European countries are being a bit more protectionists. So should Chinese capital be allowed to come in to buy European companies, it depends on how strategic those companies are to Europe’s economy and to Europe’s stake. If they are deemed strategically important, then they should be protected. If not they are not, then they shouldn’t be allowed to come in and buy.

 

BBC: Do you think this is the moment where 3D printing will enter the public conciousness and end up with people buying their own printers?

 

TN: It’s possible. I think it’s probably so early. But I think what’s interesting about this is the distributed nature of this. You can do small production run, it’s distributed, so you can make exactly what you want. The concern I have is affordability. The people with 3D printers, so if they have the funds, do it.

 

BBC: How is the state being affected by this plunge in oil?

 

TN: That’s pretty terrible. Houston is one fo the global centers for energy and a lot of the leading gas firms here are laying people off. It’s pretty terrible the way it’s affecting Texas.

 

BBC: You still work in the office. I’m broadcasting from my bedroom. Do you think we could see a change in a way people do work? Companies might decide they don’t need much office space because people can work from home?

 

TN: No. I think it’s nice to talk about this. I don’t think people are going to do less leisure travel. I don’t think companies are gonna have their staff travel less or people are gonna go to the office less.

 

We’re human beings. Once this is passed, it’s going to take some time for people to normalize. Things are going to go back because we like what we have. We like to take a holiday somewhere, we like to see the grandparents in another state. Things aren’t gonna change that much.

 

This economic downturn, it’s a government-mandated downturn. It’s not a market failure by anybody else. It’s government-mandated, so once the government mandates that we can go back to work and resume our life, we go back to it and we do what we do for the most part.

 

Our baseline expectation is that we’ll see deflation over the next year, and it’s already starting in China if you look at real estate prices and car prices because people don’t have as much money as they have a few months ago.

 

It’s a global phenomenon. We will see deflation in 2020. That is a fact. It’s a problematic fact. And it’s gonna force airline tickets, hotels, and other folks to lower their prices. Deflation isn’t just lowering prices, but it will force that, because people will have less money for a period of time.

 

BBC: What do you make about this concern about the role of Amazon? Amazon is not really having a good time. It’s stuck, closing almost at record level.

 

TN: I think, you know Amazon bought a company Pill Pack a few years ago. They already have health data on a lot of people. If there was a concern, why people didn’t raise it when we were in a different economic position?  I think many people are just happy earning on Amazon stock and subscribing to Prime at that time.

 

It’s concerning, but I don’t understand how this is different because it’s all health data on Americans. We all know that Amazon, Google, all these guys are going to monetize the data that they have on us. I’m not saying I love it and that I am perfectly at peace with it. It’s just strange that people wouldn’t be upset with their of Pill Pack a few years ago. But now they’re upset that Amazon is going to build organically facilities. And then there’s Bill Gates saying that he’s doing testing or planning to do the same stuff. Why are we comfortable with these corporate titans doing this stuff in one form when it’s as a foundation and not when it’s another form. I think it’s a little bit protective.

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Podcasts

US crude oil price collapses to 18-year low

US crude oil prices fell below $20 a barrel on Monday, close to their lowest level in 18 years, as traders bet production would have to shut to prevent a glut in the markets. The situation is particularly bleak for high-cost wells in the world’s largest producer: the US. We talk to Ellen Wald, from the Atlantic Council, in Florida, and Tom Adshead, a director of Macro Advisory in Moscow.

 

Meanwhile, the Coronavirus outbreak has caused a rather startling change in fish consumption in Kenya. Instead of importing stocks from China, Kenyans have refound their taste for local catches, boosting incomes within the industry. And what do you do when you’re in lockdown?

 

Podcast Notes:

BBC: What’s your thought on this, especially Houston is the self-proclaimed oil capital of the world?

 

TN: It’s had a huge impact. I live in North of Houston where Exxon Mobil is based, were the largest oil producer in the world is 5 minutes from my house. So it’s having a huge impact directly to our neighborhood and of course, Houston more broadly.

 

BBC: How many jobs in this industry? Can Houston diversify?

 

TN: Houston has done a lot of work diversifying over the last 30 years. Medicine, we have the largest health center in the US with the Houston Medical Center. The port of Houston is one of the largest ports in the US. There is quite a lot of financial services here. However, energy is still a large contributor to Houston. A crude price under $20 is really devastating for Houston and 10 of thousands of jobs have already been lost.

 

BBC: Is it viable at that sort of prices?

 

TN: I don’t think it’s viable for anybody. It’s not like the Saudi VS Russia VS Texas issue. It’s not viable fiscally for Iran, Russia, for anyone to pull oil from the ground at these prices. They can’t run their governments at these prices. It’s not viable commercially for companies in Texas to pull oil from the ground at these prices. These prices are not helping anybody. It really is the demand shock of coronavirus and the Saudi-Russia feud. If we didn’t have the demand shock, we wouldn’t be here. We’ll probably be in the 40s and the Saudi plan would be effective.

 

Also talks about computer online games, monopoly, jigsaw puzzles, and others.

 

Listen to the BBC Business Matters podcast here. 

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Podcasts

US warns against cruise ship travel as industry reels

Our CEO and founder is one of the live guests at BBC: Business Matters that talked about the cruise ship travel warnings, Italy’s Coronavirus, Wells Fargo, US politics, and sports.

 

BBC Notes:

 

The US State Department has told US citizens not to travel on cruise ships. We will look at how the industry has been left reeling from these latest government instructions.

 

Italy meanwhile remains on lockdown as the country attempts to stop the spread of coronavirus gripping it currently.

 

Wells Fargo, the bank that went bad, promises to Congress that it has turned the corner.

 

We look at whether we – or Congress – can take its new chief executive at his word. We ask who will help out companies when coronavirus hits supply chains harder, from Kerstin Braun, President of Stenn Group, an international provider of trade finance.

 

We talk about all this live with guests Yumiko Murakami from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) in Tokyo, and Tony Nash, CEO and Founder of Complete Intelligence, a contextual artificial intelligence platform in Houston, Texas.

 

 

Show Notes:

 

Do you think this is the way that all countries (same as Italy) will have to go? Could it happen in the States?

It could, but I don’t think it will.  Part of the problem in Italy is almost 25% of Italians are over the age of 65. If you look at the mortality rate, for those over 80 years old, it’s about 15% and for those over 70 is 8%. The biggest risk is in older populations. With Italy being the oldest country in Europe.

 

The people who are affected by it are largely older people and they are not working-age population and not consumption cohorts of the economy. Anybody under 60 years old, there’s a less than a 0.5% chance of fatality. It’s just not bearing out in the direct economy. But we are seeing concerns for older people, justifiably, we should be. But does it necessarily require the shut down of the economy? I’m not so sure.

 

Do you think he’s got what it takes to take on Trump?

I think it’s gonna be hard to beat Joe Biden at this point. But it’s gonna be an uphill battle for him with Trump because Trump is already taken him on in social media and speeches, and I’m not sure Joe Biden has the ability to respond to Trump in a debate, etc. in a way that Americans expect.

 

The populism way of 2016 is not really over in the US yet and Biden cannot grasp that. There was an issue with him in a factory him cursing a factory worker that upset a lot of people.

 

Do you think if the Coronavirus continues at this rate, and tips the economy into recession, does that make the President more vulnerable?

I think it can. That’s 6 months away, anything is possible in 6 months in politics. If the US is the only one affected or affected worse, then sure, it will make Trump vulnerable. But if the US is kinda similarly affected to other places, I think it’s hard to blame him. I’m not exactly sure how Biden will take that in November. They may just blame China.

 

It’s very hard for Biden to play the common man message. If you’re talking about the economic dislocation (1% vs the 99%), Joe Biden has been carried in the womb of government health care plans for the last 60 years or something. Most Americans are very resentful at public sector workers because they have a very good insurance plan. It will be very hard for Joe Biden to play the populist in that role. I just don’t see a scenario that Biden looks better than Trump in that scenario.

 

If you really want to drive a clear wedge between the Republicans and Democrats, Sanders would have been a very clear alternative to Trump. But you can’t really say that Biden, at least from the kinda rich guy getting his kids job, it’s really hard to say that Biden’s really much that different.

 

Listen to the podcast on BBC: Business Matters.

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Podcasts

Disney+ subscribers more than double since November

Over 26 million people are now Disney+ subscribers since it launched in November. Announcing the company’s quarterly results, Disney’s chief executive Bob Iger said the numbers had “exceeded even our greatest expectations.” We get an analysis from Zoe Thomas, BBC North America technology correspondent.

 

Shares in electric vehicle maker Tesla have quadrupled in the last six months. That’s despite several analysts previously predicting the company would go bust, due to its high debts and spiraling costs. Tim Higgins, automotive and tech reporter at the Wall Street Journal, tells us why Tesla’s fortunes appear to have changed.

 

And as a London City worker – reportedly earning more than £1 million a year – is suspended for stealing sandwiches, we ask psychologist Emma Citron what drives people to behave in such ways.

 

Jamie Robertson is joined throughout the program by Tony Nash, Founder and CEO at Complete Intelligence, who’s in Houston in Texas and Stefanie Yuen Thio, joint managing partner at TSMP Law in Singapore.

 

Listen to the podcast at BBC Business Matters.