Complete Intelligence

Categories
Podcasts

Joe Biden’s economic plans

 

Tony Nash joins Rahul Tandon at the BBC Business Matters podcast and they discussed Joe Biden’s economic plans like the $15 minimum wage and stimulus packages. They also discussed the Covid vaccine supply chain and why some countries are getting them last. Also, what’s the future of Netflix, and lastly, what is Trump’s legacy?

 

This podcast was published on January 20, 2021 and the original source can be found at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x196dhr17jd

 

BBC Business Matters Description:

 

US president-elect Biden sets covid-19 stimulus package as early priority for presidency. As Janet Yellan begins her confirmation hearing as treasury secretary we look ahead at the incoming administration’s economic plans – and we look back at President Donald Trumps four years in office, as he prepares to move out of the White House. Also in the programme amid concerns that people living in poorer countries may have to wait months or years to access a coronavirus vaccine, we find out more from Mesfin Teklu Tessema, head of the health unit at the International Rescue Committee. Plus, Netflix reveal blockbuster results; is it one firm that’s been able to capitalise from the pandemic?

 

 

Show Notes

 

 

RT: We heard from Joe Biden there before using the word “healing.” Is that going to be what he has to do to heal American society because it’s so divided at the moment?

 

TN: That’s required. Healing takes place on both sides. A lot of the talk on the Democrat side has been about Republicans retreating rather than Democrats calming down the venom they’ve had toward Trump over the last four years. Healing requires Democrats to dial down their attacks on Republicans as much as Republicans accommodating the new administration. It really is, something that I hope the new administration can tell their own party to to stop the vicious attacks come to you.

 

RT: Big problems need big solutions. Have you been impressed by what you’ve heard from the Biden administration and Janet Yellen so far?

 

TN: Really, all I’m hearing is that they’re going to throw money at the problem, which is fine. It’s been months. Americans needed more money from D.C. since July. But I’m not seeing much more sophisticated solution than throwing money at the problem. It’s a start. But I don’t know that we necessarily have a direction.

 

RT: What sort of what sort of policies would you like to see being put into place by to help?

 

TN: Policies like this 15 dollar minimum wage, if you’re in New York or San Francisco, great. That’s fantastic. Those are expensive cities. But if you’re in Texas where I live, it doesn’t make sense. It’s great that people get a $15 minimum wage, but we just don’t have the cost of living that New York or San Francisco have. Those types of ideas are fine, but we need more detail around indexing that cost of living or indexing that minimum wage by cost of living.

 

This is why things like minimum wage has typically been left up to the states. The federal minimum wage is incredibly low because those decisions are usually left out to the states. I feel like we have a lot of promises for more money. And again, that’s great. Americans need that really bad.

 

I run a small company. The PPP has been long overdue. The House of Representatives held that up for six months. We need it and we’re just finishing our application today. But it’s not enough and it’s not in time.

 

My biggest worry is corruption. Will that money end up in the hands of people who don’t really need it? Will they end up in the hands of politically well-connected organizations or individuals? We saw that last time around with the PPP.

 

RT: But there are things that can be put in place to stop that. And there is no doubt that many Americans would need that money. That money needs to be spent on infrastructure.

 

This is a huge problem, isn’t it? We heard from Fatima in that piece there talking about how a health worker in South Africa may well be inoculated after a healthy person in Germany. That cannot be right. Why have we not been able to put an effective system in place here?

 

TN: There are two issues here. The first that I find incredibly frustrating is these firms have received huge subsidies to develop these vaccines. They’re effectively already paid for billions of dollars. For these companies getting non-profit prices for this, it’s just unconscionable and it’s just unbelievable.

 

The other issue, though, is a positive issue. The supply chains are in place and there are abilities for companies to get vaccines, not just to South Africa. Some of the innovations that have happened around vaccine supply chains over the past few years have allowed people to monitor the temperature and the quality of those vaccines through the vaccine supply chain. There’s a company here in my town called Blue Maestro that actually has chipsets that flow with those vaccines themselves so that the people who are getting them don’t have to worry.

 

RT: Those changes are important, Tony, but still, people would be listening to this and thinking, why will some countries not get it till 2022 or is that just the nature of the world we live in?

 

TN: I can’t believe it’s the nature of the world we live in. It’s the nature of financing the scale of the build out to the vaccine. But again, these vaccine makers have already received billions of dollars, largely from Western countries, mostly from OECD countries, which is on some level one and the same. But Japan, Singapore, other places have given huge amounts of money. China have given huge amounts of money to vaccine makers. The money is there. The vaccines are paid for. So there should be more allocation to these countries. That’s without a doubt.

 

RT: Traditional TV for my kids, streaming is actually traditional TV. Do you have Netflix? What are you watching? Are you still watching?

 

TN: I do. My kids watch it a lot more than I do. What she said about the sports content on Netflix is a real issue for them. Hulu and Amazon have much better offerings there. Netflix is in a weird position where they don’t necessarily have the appeal that a Disney plus has, which has had stellar growth. But they don’t have things like live sports that some of the other guys do.

 

83% of their subscriber growth came from outside of the U.S. So it tells me that their market in the U.S. only has so much room to grow. There is a global opportunity, and that’s great. But until they can adjust their offerings to include some more compelling content, both for young and for people in their prime who want to watch sports, I think their opportunity is limited in the U.S.

 

RT: One thing that President Trump said when he was coming into power was he was going to shake up the existing political system. He suddenly done that, hasn’t he?

 

TN: He has and some of the things that sound obvious, like he’s the first president since the 1970s who has not started a new war, that’s a big deal. It really is a blow to the military industrial complex. And Americans appreciate that. Not starting new wars is a huge benefit for the world, but it’s also a huge benefit for Americans who send their kids overseas to fight these things.

 

RT: When people like you, economists look back at Donald Trump’s legacy, what’s it going to be in a few years time?

 

TN: He certainly didn’t fit in in D.C. He was somebody who really fit in more outside of D.C. and that’s what he promised. He brought back more hostages from overseas than any other U.S. president. And so those are the kind of things that really hit the heartland and really hit normal, average American citizens outside of the big major cities of New York and L.A. and D.C. and so on and so forth.

 

RT: Has he fundamentally changed American society?

 

TN: What Trump has done is forced people to show their true colors. It’s brought out the worst in people and it’s also brought out the best in people. What’s highlighted in media is often the worst part, but there have been a lot of very positive things that have happened in the U.S. over the last four years.

 

Breaking from the status quo and the bureaucracy in Washington and in government doesn’t really like that very much. But I think it’s been very positive. There are 74 million people in the U.S., more than half the voting population that actually appreciate Trump. So what the U.S. is fed and what international news media feed people about Trump being an idiot, being a buffoon and all this other stuff, half of the U.S. voting population doesn’t believe that.

Categories
Podcasts

Electoral College Confirms Biden Win

Tony Nash joins Jamie Robertson at the BBC Business Matters podcast and they discussed mostly the US Election as the electoral college confirms Biden win. Or is it too early to tell? They also talked about the recent Google meltdown and why it shouldn’t be a surprise. Also, do Chinatowns around the world suffer because of the anti-China movement? What about the vaccine — will it help us get back to normal at last? And, what’s wrong with California and why do businesses and people move out of the state and to Texas?

 

This podcast was published on December 15, 2020 and the original source can be found at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x194l551ll3

 

 

BBC Business Matters Description:

 

Joe Biden has been formally certified as the next president of the United States, with results from electoral colleges in all but one US state giving him 302 votes. This takes him over the 270 threshold required to win the presidency. The electors in each state are appointed to reflect the popular vote, which was won by Mr Biden in November. We get reaction from Washington DC and examine the US democratic process.

 

Two major cyber-incidents on Monday. The first you may well have noticed, the second will have almost certainly passed you by but may be in the long term far more significant. Google applications including YouTube, Gmail and Docs suffered a massive service outage, with users unable to access many of the company’s services. The second was a sweeping hacking campaign that may have attacked the US Department of Homeland Security, the Treasury and Commerce departments and thousands of businesses. We take a look at how working from home may be leaving businesses and government more vulnerable.

 

And we’re in the Philippines where the country has been showing an interest in the very English game of cricket. Throughout the programme, Jamie Robertson is joined by analyst Tony Nash in the United States and social welfare expert Rachel Cartland in Hong Kong.

 

 

Show Notes

 

 

JR: Joe Biden has been formally certified as the next president of the United States, but results from Electoral College is in all but one US state, giving him 302 votes. That takes him over the crucial 270 threshold, which is required to win the presidency. The electors in each state are appointed to reflect the popular vote which has won by Mr. Biden in November. OK, so, Tony, it’s all over. Pretty much, you reckon?

 

TN: I don’t know. I sat with you guys the day after the election and I said, everyone is pretty convinced that it was the end of the line then. And I said at that point, it’d be weeks, if not months before this was settled. And we still have a lot happening here. So honestly, I have no idea what’s going to happen on January 6th, but it’ll be interesting.

 

Look, Donald Trump is always interesting. You can never accuse the guy of being boring. So I wouldn’t be surprised. Actually, your commentator was not right about the president of the Senate, which is Mike Pence, actually has to accept the electors.

 

JR: It’s not just a question of counting. It’s a question of accepting that count as a right.

 

TN: So the speaker of the House and the president, the Senate have to accept the electors. So if they don’t, then it goes to the House. But there’s one vote per state and there are more Republican delegate delegations to the House of Representatives than there are Democrat delegations. If you look purely a state, no. So I actually have no idea how it’s going to end. I have no idea what’s happening on January 6th. But it’s not as simple as this was done because there are, I think, six or seven states where the Republican electors actually protested and actually sent their electors as well. So you have states divided and protesting, it can be problematic, so I have no idea what’s going to happen.

 

JR: I certainly haven’t heard the fat lady sing in us. Tony who feels like we might be losing a battle somewhere here, or do you think it’s not as easy to say as that?

 

TN: First of all, there is more hacking and there’s more information lost than most people are aware of. This is terrible, but I don’t think we should be naive and believe that this is rare.

 

JR: Why would it become public, though? It’s quite interesting that I mean, why tell people this has happened?

 

TN: Because so many companies have been exposed. It’s 18,000, I think. But I think publicly traded companies never disclose that  happens to them, even though they’re obligated to disclose, they don’t govern institutions. You know, it happens all the time. And it’s a daily occurrence.

 

My company is on Google infrastructure for part of our work. And what worries me is we’ll never know what information was exposed, especially with the Google hack. And I think there should be a requirement that companies let people know what has been exposed, but we’ll never know and we’ll never know what was lost and what was exposed. Companies have their their corporate secrets, their trade secrets on their cloud drives. And we never really know if things were exposed. And we never you know.

 

JR: Tony, there’s a Chinatown in Houston. And there’s research to back this up. Chinatowns have suffered worse than many other communities in the U.S. Is it connected to an anti China feeling, do you think? Or is there something else going on here that I haven’t seen?

 

TN: I don’t think there is. I lived in Asia for 15 years and my entire social community for much of that time was Chinese. I understand it at a different level. I do think there is a sensitivity among the Chinese community that they may be targeted for this. So I don’t necessarily believe that is the case. At least it’s not in Houston. Maybe it is in New York. But in Houston, I don’t feel that’s the case at all.

 

JR: I just want to continue our conversation she had earlier, which is about China or at least Chinese Institute of Chinese Chinatowns in the United States, which may have been losing more business than most other communities, possibly because they’re Chinese. And Tony gave a very nuanced view saying, but perhaps there’s a perception this is happening, but it may not be actually true in reality. Right, Tony? A vaccine, is it a shot in the arm for the economy as well? I mean, my impression I got from that interview with Constance Hunter from KPMG was that he thinks it’s going to take a bit of time, but it may be just the light at the end of a tunnel, which everybody needs.

 

TN: Just put the vaccine into context. So fatality rates for Covid, at least in Texas, are a third today of what they were just in September. So it’s more the government halting business that.

 

JR: Can I just challenge you on that? You say it’s a third time. It is a third of the total. But on the other hand, you’re having many more many more cases identified than you were in September. I mean, that may be in absolute terms. I’m not quite sure whether if you’re getting more cases actually reported, if it’s a third of the ones being being reported.

 

TN: More deaths in August.

 

JR: Yes.

 

TN: August 5th and 6th, we had 229 deaths in Texas now were around 139, 146, 121, 128, OK. So right now, the thing that we need to caution both on absolute and percentage numbers, we’re a third as a percent. We’re a third better. We’re a third of what they were in September even.

 

It’s great that we have a vaccine. I’m not trying to pull back on that.

 

But the problem here is that the government pulled the plug on people’s livelihoods. Hundreds of thousands of companies in America are out of business because state and local governments shut economies. That is a fact.

 

JR: You don’t think people would have been frightened to go out, frightened to go to restaurants, frightened to go to cinemas?

 

TN: I believe that people are responsible and they would have washed their hands and done all this stuff, worn masks, all that stuff.

 

Government officials killed local economies. What’s happening right now is federal government officials have not put the stimulus out that they should have put out in August. The package that came out in May was only supposed to last three months. They were supposed to put another package out in August, September. They didn’t. So we’re in on one hand, it’s state and local governments that killed economies and killed hundreds of thousands of companies and millions of jobs. On the other hand, it’s the federal officials who wanted to negotiate small details while people starve. It is government on both ends of this that are harming individuals, killing companies, harming families. It’s terrible.

 

JR: What is wrong with California? What’s so great about Texas?

 

TN: I have an artificial intelligence company in Texas. So we are in a technology ecosystem here in Texas. And Oracle, as you noted, just announced on Friday, they’re coming. Tesla’s moved.

 

I lived in California during the first Internet bubble of the late 90s, early 2000s. And what I find about California now is especially around the talent. They’re good. There’s nothing wrong with the talent there. It’s good. But it’s not the world class that it once was. It’s really expensive and it’s very arrogant. Silicon Valley is, kind of, to use an Asian analogy, it’s the Singapore of the U.S. It’s entitled, expensive, and kind of OK, good, but not great.

 

I’m in Texas and I moved my company from Singapore to Texas because I can find a very experienced technical person who will roll up their sleeves and actually do hard work. People are pretty affordable. The quality of skills here are great and it’s a fantastic business environment.

 

JR: This may sound a little bit like an Englishman talking, but it’s not to do with the weather, is it? And there is more to that question to mention immediate, bearing in mind for the rather high temperatures and wildfires.

 

TN: California’s got the Pacific Ocean and beautiful weather. People are coming here initially because they have to. But then they want to because they realized there are a lot of really nice people here. And I loved it. I lived in California for a long time and I voluntarily moved to Texas because of the business environment. I’ve been here four years now.

 

JR: And Tony, I mean, cricket may be played in far flung things, but in Texas, I don’t think so.

 

TN: You would be surprised, Jamie, 20 miles from my house is the largest cricket complex in America. That’s amazing. So Texas has a very large Indian community and we have the largest cricket complex in America.

Categories
QuickHit

QuickHit: Understanding the Covid Vaccine Supply Chain

Blue Maestro co-founder Kirstin Hancock joined us this week on QuickHit to explain the sensitivities around transporting the Covid vaccines. How vaccine manufacturers are adjusting to the special handling requirements, and how technology helps make sure that these are delivered in perfect condition?

 

Kirstin is the co-founder of Blue Maestro, which was set up eight years ago. Blue Maestro designs and manufactures Bluetooth sensors and data loggers. These are very small devices that have a PCB chip in them that use Bluetooth technology to communicate with smartphones to measure variations of the environmental conditions such  as temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, etc.

 

💌 Subscribe to CI Newsletter and gain AI-driven intelligence.

📺 Subscribe to our Youtube Channel.

📊 Forward-looking companies become more profitable with Complete Intelligence. The only fully automated and globally integrated AI platform for smarter cost and revenue planning. Book a demo here.

📈 Check out the CI Futures platform to forecast currencies, commodities, and equity indices

 

This QuickHit episode was recorded on December 11, 2020.

 

The views and opinions expressed in this QuickHit episode are those of the guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Complete Intelligence. Any content provided by our guests are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any political party, religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything.

 

 

Show Notes

 

TN: Great. Okay. That sounds really interesting and I’ve been looking at you guys for a long time and what I’m really interested initially to talk about as we look at the environment with Covid and a number of other things happening this week and next week, I’d really like to understand what you’re seeing around the vaccine supply chains because I know you guys do some work there and I know it’s critical to see your types of products in those supply chains. Otherwise, we don’t get live vaccine, right? So, can you talk to us about a little bit of the work that you’re doing there?

 

KH: One of the criteria for the CDC is that sensors and data loggers are able to measure temperature in real time and that this is able to be recorded over a period of time and that maximum and minimum temperatures can be seen throughout the time.  Our sensors and data loggers are all unique.

 

They have a unique MAC ID address on them and they can be named, and logging intervals can be set at specific intervals. So, within the storage and transportation of vaccine, Tempo Disc in particular, is a really useful tool because it does all of these things. Now, we have actually been using Tempo Disc in a number of different countries to transport vaccines already.

 

We’ve been working with the UN this year, 2020, to deliver vaccines in developing countries in Africa through a project that they’ve been working on and that’s been very successful.

 

TN: Very good. So, what are the considerations like how long are these things usually in transport? I mean, what variability are… are there huge temperature swing variabilities? Are there huge… What are the kinds of things that the vaccine makers are really worried about because this seems like a really delicate supply chain?

 

KH: What vaccine makers are really concerned about is that the vaccines go out of their temperature range. Now, using our app for Tempo Plus 2, you can see real-time data. So, you can see exactly what the temperature is of the container that the vaccines are being put in and that’s generally what our users are doing.

 

They’re using Tempo Disc in the containers and they’re labeling them according to that batch of vaccines and that’s really important so that they’ve got the traceability from when they go from the manufacture of the vaccine right out to the pharmacies, the nurses, the clinics where these vaccines are administered.  And I think that’s probably the number one concern that these vaccines go out of temperature range because when they do, there is an emergency procedure that goes into place and basically, all of the vaccines have to be disposed of.

 

TN: Interesting. Okay. I really wanted to talk to you because with all of the talk of this distribution, I know this is probably something that there’s not a lot of thought from kind of your average consumer. But it’s such an important part of what’s happening here that I wanted to get some understanding of that. So, can you also tell me or help me understand… Blue Maestro does a lot of other work around healthcare and we’re an artificial intelligence company, we use a huge amount of data. You guys are an IoT company. You do the same. So outside of the vaccine supply chain, how are people using your products around health care and life sciences?

 

KH: We have a number of different use cases for Tempo Disc in a number of different healthcare applications. We work with a number of different US companies to monitor specific environmental conditions and I’ll just give you a couple of examples. We’re working with Boston O&P Orthopedics and Prosthetics to develop a solution where Tempo Disc is used in prosthetics to monitor how long people are wearing their prosthetics.

 

We also work with a company called GoGoband on a device that monitors when children or people with disabilities have wet themselves at nighttime because then their parents can get alerted. So, there’s a variation. We work with some international companies to actually monitor and record the pharmaceutical equipment that they have throughout the factory and then for its transportation to particular pharmacies within a number of different countries.

 

TN: Interesting. So, with the pharmacy activity, I mean that’s very precise manufacturing processes. As we get more into say precision manufacturing, how are manufacturers using your devices to understand precision around their manufacturing processes? Because again, as we have more sophisticated products, manufacturers have to know this stuff. It reduces defects. But it also creates ultimately better products for customers. So, can you help us understand a little bit about that?

 

KH: So, we issue conformity certificates and calibration certificates. They’re a little bit different. But basically, what they do is they track the PCB devices from the very start of the manufacturing process. So then when they’re programmed by our team, we have each device has a unique ID so that particular device can be tracked right from its manufacturing cycle right to its end user.

 

Now this is really important for traceability within the supply chain because the end user knows exactly which product they’re using for what purpose. So, if they’re looking at just temperature, they can have an ID that they can trace all the way through. And this ID is, it’s embedded in the electronics firmware. But then the end user can also change this so they can give it its own name.

 

So, if you’ve got a vaccine batch, then you can give it that idea of the vaccine batch. But then you can trace it right back. Now, our calibration certificates are two-point temperature calibration certificates. They’re very accurate.  Our devices use a product called si7020 silicon labs sensor. It’s one of the most accurate on the market. Its accuracy is 0.3 percent and we’ve had that tested and very verified by labs and our devices are very accurate.

 

TN: Very interesting, Kirstin. I think we could go on for a couple hours talking about this stuff. But I just wanted to kind of get a quick overview out to people so they understand what’s happening particularly with vaccines but also with other aspects of the manufacturing supply chain. So, thanks so much for your time today. I really appreciate it.

 

For anybody who’s watching, please check out the details in the bottom of the page. Also follow us on Youtube. Thanks very much. Have a great day.

Categories
Podcasts

Markets Pause As Wells, BOFA Miss And Stimulus Remain Distant

In this discussion with BFM 89.9, Tony Nash shares views on the recent bank earnings, update on Brexit and why it’s stalled, the future of Hong Kong and how vaccine news play for markets.

 

This podcast first appeared and originally published at https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/market-watch/markets-pause-as-wells-bofa-miss-and-stimulus-remain-distant on October 15, 2020.

 


BFM Description

 

The diminishing likelihood of stimulus and poor bank earnings have paused stock markets for now, as electioneering ramps up ahead of November polls, according to Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, who discusses bank earnings, market expectations as well as Brexit.

 

Produced by: Mike Gong

 

Presented by: Khoo Hsu Chuang, Wong Shou Ning

 

Show Notes

 

KHC: On the line with us now is Tony of Complete Intelligence for some clarity on markets. Tony, thanks for talking to us. Now, obviously, the Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs have all reported results so far. What is your take on the financial sector earnings thus far?

 

TN: Goldman obviously reported really well, Bank of America is down five percent. There was a huge disappointment there. Could get worse. A lot of that had to do with these penalties that were levied several weeks ago. But it looks like the investment banks are doing much better than the consumer banks. And until we get a next round of stimulus and we start to see money moving into the accounts of those guys who are unemployed, which is not a small number in the US, I think consumer banks will continue to suffer.

 

KHC: On that particular issue of the impasse in terms of a stimulus being introduced before elections, what is the biggest deterrent to consensus being reached on that front?

 

TN: One of the biggest issues is that you have a lot of states, all of them that are Democrat states that are heavily indebted. So what the House majority leader is pushing is a bailout program for those Democrat states like California, New York, Illinois, that have have billions of dollars in debt that have been racked up over the last 10 or 20 years. What are typically Republican states typically have balanced budgets. It would effectively be the Republican states bailing out the Democrat states. It’s a problem here in the US.

 

The other item is the House majority leader, Nancy Pelosi, wants to give stimulus checks to illegal immigrants in the US. She wants to give a few thousand dollars to people who are in the US illegally. And the Republicans are saying, no, why would we do that? So those are two of the things that are really holding things up in terms of the stimulus plan. And it’s electioneering. Democrats want to give money to the party faithful in their heavily indebted blue states. And they also want to try to get some votes from the illegal aliens who aren’t legally allowed to vote. But they want to get some loyalty from those illegal immigrants who are in the US.

 

WSN: Another thing that seems to be having an impact on markets is vaccine news. So every time we hear of a vaccine trial feeding, markets correct. Is it possible at all to quantify how much of this is in the markets really in terms of optimism?

 

TN: Remember, in 2019, every day, whenever we needed a bump in markets, Trump would tweet, a trade deal is near. And then we finally had the phase one deal in December. It seems like whenever there’s a tweet or some news about a vaccine, it’s because a bump in markets is needed. There’s a lot of cynicism among traders about vaccine. Until we see something actually proven and actually in a market, you’re not going to see a real firm belief in the difference it can make. So it’s going to be at least Q1 or so before we see things deployed.

 

We don’t necessarily expect the benefits to happen until 2021. But the problem, at least here in the US, is that nobody wants to be the guinea pig. At least half of Americans surveyed don’t want to be the first one. They’re going to have to see some high-level politicians go in, roll up their sleeves, get the job and and really face the consequences, if there are any negative consequences, because a lot of Americans just aren’t believers and they’re really worried about the effects of it.

 

KHC: OK, switching to the UK, if the UK fails to negotiate a Brexit deadline deal today, how should investors position themselves? And would you recommend shorting sterling assets?

 

TN: I think it’s a possibility. I don’t know if I’d necessarily recommend it, because I think the status quo is baked in to expectations. We haven’t necessarily had a positive outlook to negotiations for two or three years now. I think the expectation is that things will continue to muddle through and markets will fold that end. So I don’t know. Outside of a very positive agreement for the UK, I don’t necessarily think there’s huge upside anywhere.

 

And outside of a very negative concession given by the UK, I don’t think there’s huge downside anywhere because the EU is just intransigent there. They’ve been embarrassed by this whole process. They don’t want to negotiate and they’re not moving at all. So I think we’re in the range of where things will be outside of a major announcement somewhere.

 

WSN: Looking at China yesterday or a few days ago, his speech has outlined a comprehensive vision of for Shenzhen. What does this mean for Hong Kong’s economic future? Do you see a bright, a bleak one for the city street?

 

TN: Hong Kong’s fate was sealed in 2014 with the demonstrations. And I’ve been saying this since twenty fifteen. At that time, the MDC and the folks in the central government were planning on other options for the activities that were happening in Hong Kong. What we saw with the announcement in Shenzhen yesterday was simply cementing Shenzhen’s place, the central city at the end of the PRD, right at the end of the Pearl River Delta.

 

And so Hong Kong is no longer the central location. It is a place to get hard currency. But it’s no longer an industrial location. I believe we’ll start to see financial services move to other places over the next ten years. Not an overnight activity, but it’s something that certainly the central government wants to happen.

 

KHC: OK, Tony, thanks so much for your time. That was Tony Nash of Complete Intelligence.

 

His comments in terms of of China also resonate because we’ve got certain diplomats, a top ranking government officials coming to the Asian region for a charm offensive, but also his comments on banks, a tale of two halves, really, consumer banks that well said Bank of America really failed to meet expectations. They did beat expectations, but they felt some way of sort of you and your performance numbers. But then the investment banks like Goldman Sachs have done really well because of the trading desks and the stimulus checks that were written in the third quarter.

 

WSN: Yeah, actually, 2020 is the reverse of 2008 during the great financial crisis. If you remember then American banks itself, all the investment banks. Right, because of the derivative losses in the books exposed to the shuffle in equity markets. But this time around, actually, the volatility has really helped them. So for a change, they’ve seen incredible jumps in trading investment income. But it’s the main street banks which are feeling the pinch. So, yes, there’s an increase in deposits for these banks.

 

But for the consumer banks, for the main street banks, nobody or less people are taking out loans, is less credit cut usage as a result. So, you know, no such not such good times for the consumer banks. Better for the. And bad guys out there.

 

KHC: Now, of course, and Morgan Stanley reports tomorrow we saw net interest margin set wells and Bank of America really being crushed as well. And not many, not many companies reporting earnings are giving outlook statements.

Traders and Investors

CYBER MONDAY SALE

Days
Hours
Minutes
Seconds

The biggest sale of the year continues with CYBER MONDAY!

Save 80% off your CI Markets Premium subscription. That’s $99 for the whole year! 

🟡 Create and forecast your own investment portfolios.
🟡 94.7% market forecast accuracy.
🟡 1,600+ assets forecasted every week.