Tony Nash joins BFM 89.9 The Business Station for another look at the global markets and to get a sense of whether this is the end of the bull run. Also discussed how September is expected to be a volatile month. Will there be a fiscal stimulus for small businesses? Will banks and other financial institution get the next round of stimulus? And how about the oil prices — where is it going?
This podcast first appeared and originally published at https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/market-watch/is-the-rally-ending on September 24, 2020.
Speculation is rife over whether US lawmakers will be able to come to agreement over a new stimulus package, as deadlines loom. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also warned that more stimulus will be needed, and all the uncertainty took its toll on US equities overnight. To get a sense of whether this is the end of the bull run, we speak to Tony Nash, Chief Economist and CEO of Complete Intelligence.
Produced by: Mike Gong
Presented by: Roshan Kanesan, Lyn Mak, Noelle Lim
LM: BFM eighty nine point nine. You’re listening to the morning run with Lyn Mak, Roshan Kanesan and Noel Lim, 707 a.m. Thursday, the 24th of September. And in round about 15 minutes, we’re speaking with Paul McManis, chief enterprise business officer at Maxus, to discuss how companies can best adapt to a post covid-19 business environment. But before that, we’re taking a look at the markets.
RK: Well, the markets were in the red, actually. The Dow was down two percent. The S&P 500 was down two point four percent, and the Nasdaq was down two point seven percent. How did Asia do?
NL: Well, Nikkei index down point zero six percent. The Shanghai Composite was up 22 percent. Hang Seng marginally point one percent of the Cosby eight point zero three percent stay up point seven percent. The FBI. CIA, however, was down one point six percent. And I guess that’s on the back of some very important news at 12:00 p.m. yesterday.
RK: Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see how all these markets open today on the back of the US market closing.
LM: Absolutely. So for more on international markets this morning, we have Tony Nash’s chief economist and CEO of Complete Intelligence on the line with us this morning. Tony, thank you for joining us. Now, U.S. equities retreated sharply last night as Jerome Powell warned that more stimulus is needed. While it seems more likely that lawmakers will be able to agree to this. Is this the end of the rally and perhaps the reality check that market’s needs?
TN: Well, I don’t know if it’s the end of the rally, but I know we had a conversation on August twenty sixth. I think it was when I caution you guys that September would be a really rough month and very volatile. And I think we’re certainly in the middle of that. So how much further will it go? We think it has a little ways to go, but so we don’t necessarily think there’s a huge rally coming. But the caveat to that is stimulus.
So if stimulus comes out this week from the U.S. Congress, which there has been a bill going through and there may be some reconciliation in in some of the committees to get some stimulus out, that could help. But I think the Fed I think what what the Fed has said is, you know, they’re out there doing their work. They’re getting loans out to larger companies. But really, fiscal stimulus has to take place for smaller companies until we have that.
I think markets are pretty upset.
RK: And if we take a look, sorry, OK. And as we take a look at some of the banks like HSBC and others, they’ve taken a bit of a beating from the Vincent report. Will this have a an impact on the rotation of play into the finance sector, do you think?
TN: I think it will certainly for those banks that have had issues around laundering money and other things, allegedly. Yeah, I think it’s a big problem because investors don’t want to invest in risk. There’s enough risk in their daily life. But for those banks who aren’t flagged, I think there’s a real opportunity for them. Unfortunately, the sector itself is having difficulties today. But you did see some movement in things like insurance and other things where you do see money moving in and looking at oil prices rising.
NL: U.S. oil inventories are keeping oil prices fairly subdued. Where do you see oil prices heading in the short term?
TN: We don’t see a lot of movement. You know, we see WTI in the high 30s, low 40s. We see Brent around the mid 40s. The problem is we just haven’t had that consumption rebound that’s needed to drive oil prices higher. There is a lot of discussion about a supply side issue going into the first half of next year that might push prices higher. I’m not entirely sure that that may happen. But even when we look at things like petrol prices, they’re probably 30 percent off of where they were a year ago.
And we really don’t expect that to change for six to 12 months.
LM: Thank you very much for speaking with us this morning, Tony. That was Tony Nash, chief economist and CEO of Complete Intelligence