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What signals are markets missing right now?

What signals are markets missing right now?

In this QuickHit episode, our guest Julian Brigden answers “What signals are markets missing right now?” How important is the equity market right now in the current economic cycle? Most importantly, how long before we can see directional change in the market, and what you should do before then?

 

Julian Brigden is based in Colorado and started in the markets in the very late 80s, trading precious metals. He moved into trading FX, then switched into sales for various investment banks. He also worked for a policy consultancy group called Medley Global Advisors in the very late 90s to early 2000s and fell in love with the research space. Just over ten years ago, he set up MI2. MI2 was grown organically. Julian can be seen together with Raul from Real Vision where he does Macro Insider.

 

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This QuickHit episode was recorded on November 3, 2021.

 

The views and opinions expressed in this What signals are markets missing right now? Quickhit episode are those of the guest and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Complete Intelligence. Any contents provided by our guest are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any political party, religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything.

 

Show Notes

 

TN: Julian, I’ve watched a lot of your videos, and I love a lot of the thoughts you’ve talked about recently about velocity, about the yield curve, about central banks. It’s all great stuff. I guess one of the things that I’m really wondering right now, especially, is what is the market missing? What are market participants missing? Because this is something that I don’t hear a lot of talk about. We hear a lot of the Fed should do this or this asset is going that way or whatever. But what is the market missing right now?

 

JB: Right. So we’ve been on this inflation gig since, actually, March of 2020. Sorry. Apologies. So at the depths kind of the pandemic. It’s a very long thesis. I’ve probably been in the inflation court really since the end of 2016. But in this sort of current phase, and we’ve been in and out of them, you have to. That’s what markets are about. We have been on this inflation kick since March of 2020. And initially it was just a trade breakevens, which are a metric of inflation in the bond market had got crushed because they were held by the risk parity boys as their inflation hedge in their portfolios. And they delevered like everyone else did in the spring of 2020. And those things dropped to like, five-year inflation was priced at 50 basis points.

 

Well, Tony basically trades the cycle, right. So as the economy recovers, which you had to assume it would, they were going to come back. But as we’ve sort of taken a step back and from a bigger picture perspective, we’d always said that even as soon as Trump came in, when you start playing with just monetary, that’s one thing. But when you add that fiscal side into the equation, into the mix, it becomes totally and utterly different.

 

And we’ve actually always used the period from the mid 1960s to the late 1960s. That’s where I kind of think we are. So we’ve had these sort of pro-cyclical, unnecessary, excessively large fiscal stimulus. And they came to create this accelerative oscillation. Okay. So I’ve got a couple of very smart ones, way smarter than me.

 

Classic example of the A students working for the C student. And we were looking at inflation back in 2016, and I was just looking at the chart in the 60s, and my quant came up to me and went, Boss, that’s an accelerative oscillation. And I said, Steven, what the hell is that? And he goes, well, he was, by the way, he was a mining expert, specialized in explosives. And he said, kind of what you do when you model an explosive wave is it goes out in a wave until it hits something. And if it hits it at the wrong time, far from the wave decelerating because you expected to hit something and stop, it can actually accelerate the oscillation of the wave. And so essentially, from an inflation perspective is that the way that you think about this is you get something like the Trump stimulus, which was back in late 2016, totally unnecessary fiscal stimulus at the wrong point of the cycle, where we didn’t need it.

 

So far from sort of rolling over like a sine wave, which the economic cycles behave that way, too. And inflation cycles generally behave that way because of self limiting on the tops and the bottom, cycle actually picks up amplitude. And what you tend to do is you create policy error after policy error after policy error because you’re behind the curve all of a sudden, you know what it’s like in trading, right?

 

If you’re on your game and you’re short something or long something and it moves in your direction, you might take some profit. Look for the retracement, double up, whack it hard. You get caught the wrong way into the move and your head just becomes discombodulated. And that’s what happens from a policy perspective. So. When I look at this current situation, the first thing I would say is I think people are, they’ve finally woken up to this concept that maybe inflation is not transitory. I think they’re right. We’ve been on this gig for a long time, but the immediate risks, I think, are twofold.

 

The first one is they are not. And it’s not necessarily here in the US. I think it’s going to be a problem here in the US, but I think it could be a bigger problem, actually, in Europe and for the bond market that matters because all those bond markets are all fungible. Right. So if bonds blow out or your eyeboard, the front end contracts in Europe blow out, it’s all going to affect our markets over here. And. They’ve totally underestimated the price pressures in the pipeline.

 

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TN: In Australia, right?

 

JB: Yeah, we have. But not. I think we’ve got another maybe three months of numbers of I think could make people’s eyes bleed. You’ve got this price pressure in the system. Three possible outcomes. Price pressures dissipate. PPI pressures just dissipate. Okay?

 

Well, we just got the market survey this last week. Pressures are up. We just got the ISM services. Price pressures are back up to the previous highs. We just got the Swedish service thread bank PMI services yesterday. Price pressures at new highs. Okay.

 

TN: China’s PPI are like 14% or something year on year, right?

 

JB: Exactly. And their PMI price pressure number, which was dropping, just re accelerated. So option number one, that somehow price pressures just miraculously evaporate, doesn’t seem like an option. Option number two, the companies eat the price increases. They take them in margins. Well, if that’s the case. And this is one of the things the equity market hasn’t woken up to, then your assumptions on margin growth are. The good stuff that you can get here in Colorado, right.

 

Now thus far in the United States, it’s absolutely not the case, right? Companies are pushing through those price increases. Okay. Which brings you to option number three. Price inflation, given where these PPIs are, right? So US, even the final demand, the new sort of slightly adjusted, surprising how when they do adjust these things, Tony, they generally drop from the old metric?

 

Now it’s like, two and a half to 3% under the old PPI series. But anyway, it doesn’t matter. Eight and a half percent here in the US. I think we printed another 45 high in Sweden. And I’m picking Sweden because it’s a nice open economy. And you see the data come through very quickly. I think there’s one of those 17%. Spain, 23. Eurozone, 13 and a half. Okay. So higher than the US.

 

If companies can pass those price increases on, what makes people think for a nano second that CPI is going to stay here in Sweden at two and a half in the Eurozone at four. Why couldn’t Eurozone HICP, which is their CPI, which is max only ever had a 5% spread to PPI, right? At the moment, we have a nine plus spread. Why couldn’t HICP print somewhere, my guess is between eight and a half and eleven?

 

TN: So those are Chinese figures?

 

JB: Yeah. Exactly. What the hell does this? Do you think Lagarde is going to be able to say, like King Canute, “stop?”

 

TN: So in one of your interviews that I watched, you said central bank assets and inflation are effectively the same thing. And I think that’s really interesting. Can you explain that a little bit?

 

JB: So the balance sheet? Yeah. Essentially. Look, you print money, which is what it is. QE is printing money. Monetary 101. This is how the Roman Empire ended up falling apart. And you can inflate asset prices because I know this is not how central banks initially told you it worked actually. Having said that, I do love it. And we’ll come to this, I think the second point, the markets are missing in a second, and another central banker.

 

The only central banker who’s been truly honest was Richard Fisher, the old Dallas Fed central bank chairman. And I love the Texans from the Dallas Fed because they’re just straight shooters. They’re just bloody honest, right? I mean, he came out on CNBC, and I remember watching this interview because it was done on CNBC Europe, I think. And the guy always had one of the British guys on CNBC in the US. The guy nearly fell off his damn chair when Richard Fisher said, “of course, it was about the equity market. It was always about the equity market.” Right.

 

We just front load this stuff and they could boost asset prices. And you can look at the PA of the S&P. You can look at the S&P itself. You can look at the NYSE, you can look at the value line geometric index, which is a super broad metric of US Equities, and you can put them all against the Feds balance sheet. And it’s the same thing.

 

TN: Let me ask you this. And I hear you and I am aligned with what you’re saying. The question is, why does it have to do with the equity markets? And my understanding is that it has to do with equity markets because that’s where American 401Ks are. And there’s such a large baby Boomer cohort with their money in 401Ks that they can’t be losing their wealth. Is that the reason why it’s always about equity markets?

 

JB: Well, I mean, I say it’s housing as well, right. But they tend to try and deemphasize that one because politically, that can be a bit of a pain in the ass. Right. But look, this is true monetary debasement 101, right? I mean, we wrapped it up in this veneer that is G7 central banking or the sophisticated theories. But we’ve done this throughout history, right? We just debased the currency.

 

People forget in the Weimar Republic, the Reichsmark was imploding in value. Sorry, the pre-Reichsmark was imploding in value, and the stock market was going up thousands of percent today to keep phase with this because it’s a claim on a tangible asset, right? A cash flow or a piece of land or a factory or whatever, right? So this is not new. I think this is. No, I think it’s not so much about the 401Ks. The thing that I think is truly problematic in the US is what I refer to as the financialisation of the real economy.

 

Tony, that CEOs are not paid to produce a thing. There are actually numerous companies in the S&P that I’ll argue don’t produce anything, right? They are simply an utterly shepherds of an equity price. That’s how they’re compensated. We talk about perverse incentives. Okay. That’s how they’re compensated. They basically compensate to bubblish their stock as much as they possibly can.

 

And as a result, the minute that stock prices got going up, let alone fall. They look immediately to the bottom line as to how to address costs and keep those profits falling. So if you look at the correlations between, and it’s just frightening, the correlations between total US employment and the NYSE, broad metric of US Equities, Capex and NYC. They’re the same bloody chart.

 

TN: Sure.

 

JB: So literally, you can’t really allow stocks even to go sideways for an extended period of time. You’ve got to keep this game go.

 

TN: Sure, it’s not the flow, right? We’re in a flow game. We’re not in a stock game.

 

JB: Bond markets much more flow in terms of the shape of the curve is much more a flow thing. Equities are really about, they care when the flows turned off, but they’re really about the quantity.

 

TN: Overall stock. Okay. So what else are markets missing?

 

JB: The second thing is I just want to raise this. There’s a really important Bloomberg story out today by Bill Dudley, the ex New York Fed President, ex Goldman guy. And once again, I love the honesty of these retired US Fed guys. And he’s been talking at some length about policy error. But today is fundamentally the issue.

 

So let’s use that old storyline. If a tree falls in the woods and no one hears it, did it fall? Okay. So in the last few weeks, we’ve had a lot of pressure at the front end of these bond markets. We built in rate hikes. And that’s a market assumption on what the Fed or ECB or the Bank of England or the RBA or whatever is going to do with their policy, right?

 

But at the end of the day, Tony, do we care what banks here in the US earn in the overnight from Fed funds? No. There’s literally no relevance unless you’ve got some sort of liable based funding mortgage. But really, essentially, even then, has no relevance to the real world. Right? Policymakers raise policy rates to affect broad financial conditions. And broad financial conditions are essentially five metrics depending on the waiting in every single index. And they are short term rates, let’s say two years. Long term rates, let’s say ten years. Credit, tightness. Level, equity market. And the Dollar.

 

And what you can see in the US and most other places is despite the fact that we’ve seen these big moves at the front end of these bond markets, financial conditions haven’t budged. Ten-year yields, if anything, have fallen. It’s a bare flattener. It’s kind of what you would expect at this point in the cycle. But nonetheless, there is no tightening coming from the ten year sector. Because there is no tightening coming from the ten-year sector.

 

There is no tight, not much tightening going on in the mortgage market, okay? Because there is no tightening coming from the ten-year sector, the equity market where the Algos literally just trade ten-year treasuries is their metric and wouldn’t know what a Euro dollar was, in order to fund the interest rate contract if it bit them in the proverbial ass, okay? Have completely ignored what’s going on. The dollar is caught in the wash between these various central banks who are all behind the curve and has gone nowhere. And credit hasn’t moved, because he’s looking at the equity market.

 

So there has been no tightening of financial conditions. What Bill Dudley said is that’s all that bloody matters. And so until there is a tightening of financial conditions in an economy which at least the President, probably, I suspect well into the middle of next year could change quite dramatically in the middle of next year. But for the moment, and that’s a eight, seven, eight month trading horizon, until there is a tightening of financial conditions, which means stocks down, credit wider, dollar up, ten-year yields higher. Those two year yields have to go further and further and further and further.

 

And this concept that the market is currently pricing, that we’re going to try and raise a little bit. And the whole edifice is going to blow up because they have what they refer to as the terminal rate, kind of the highest projection of where rates are essentially going to go in the tightening cycle is that one six is wrong.

 

We may have to go way through that. And Bill Dudley actually talks about 2004, 2006, where the Fed started off way behind the curve and the economy just kept running. Demand was there and they had to go 225 basis points and they had to do all sorts of other stuff before the damn things slowed down.

 

TN: True. When we consider that. So you’re saying, really seven, eight months before we see a major directional change in markets. I don’t want to put words in your mouth.

 

JB: Well, look, I think there’s sufficient, I do not see this as a slowing economy. I see this as an economy where demand is utterly excessive because central banks and policy makers misread. I think it was a fair mistake to make. I’m not critical of that, misread Covid.

 

TN: Sure. Policy errors are all over the place.

 

JB: All over the shop. Right. So we have far too easy, excessive policy. Right. Look, today the Fed is going to taper, but let’s be honest, tapering isn’t tightening. Tapering is less easing. We are driving into the brick wall that is the output gap, right. The economy at full capacity, not at 120 billion a month. But let’s say from next month, 105. Right. If you drove into a brick wall in your car at 105 versus 120, I think it would make very little difference to the outcome.

 

TN: That’s a good point. But we all remember the taper tantrum. So will we see a bit of a breather in markets before things amp up again? Or do you think people are just going to take and stride this time?

 

JB: I don’t think we get a taper tantrum this time. I think the Fed has been pretty clear. You’re sort of getting a little bit of a taper tantrum at the front end of these bull markets. But because most of the world doesn’t look at wonks like me, care what EDZ3 is, right? Or LZ3 in the UK, right? Or Aussie two year swaps. But most people don’t, aren’t aware of them, and they should be. But I mean, that’s what policymakers have to watch.

 

And as I said, I think the bigger thing is how far the rates have to go in an economy where demand is literally off the charts, where we’re seeing wage growth in the private sector from the ECI at 4.6%, where John Deere factory workers just rejected a 10% wage increase this year with following subsequent increases that probably work out around six odd percent over the next five years where they just said, forget it. Not enough, right? Not enough.

 

TN: Look at retail sales. The stepwise rise in retail sales over the past six months is incredible how quickly.

 

JB: I’m looking at stuff and if you look at the senior loan, which is the banking where they ask the bank loan offices what they intend to lend and who they’re lending to, and are they tightening conditions or whatever. Lending, they’re falling over backwards to try to lend money. Now we know that people have got some cash on sidelines because of the stimulus.

 

We know that companies have still got PPP loans that they’re still working through. So demand is a little lower, but supply is literally off the chart. So lending bank willingness to lend to consumers, decade highs, right. Bank willingness to lend to companies all time survey highs, 30-year highs. Right. So even if we were to get and I don’t think this is the case, even if wages would not keep space with inflation next year in the US, people have got plenty of places to go and borrow money to keep consuming.

 

So I just think this is an economy which is in the middle of its cycle. I mean, most cycles are three years long, three plus years long, with 15 months 16 months into this thing. I mean, this is mid cycle stuff. It’s the easiest of easy money, right?

 

TN: Okay. And so just kind of to end the three-point sermon, what else are markets missing? This is really interesting for me because I’m hearing a lot of different kinds of thesis out there every day, but very few about kind of what the market’s missing.

 

JB: Look. And I think it comes back to the final point, which we alluded to earlier. The equity market is making an assumption, of course, the equity market, I’m a bond guy and an FX guy. I hate the equity market. My glass is absolutely, defensively, half empty. Right. And ideally someone’s paid in it. But that’s the best day for it. That’s like the best market for me. Right. But the XG market is doing its classic thing where they’re just assuming the best of both worlds. So they’re assuming that margins are going to grow, so there is no cost pressure that could infringe on those. And we’re starting to see that.

 

I think Q4 numbers that we get in Q1 will start to get a little bit more interesting. Right. But we sure what wild wings or whatever the thing is called the Buffalo Wing place just got stumped because their wage costs were up and their input costs were up and they couldn’t pass it on. Right. But the equity market, as is classic, has taken the highest margins in 20 years, which is what we have now. And they’ve assumed that next year it grows even more. And in ’23, it grows yet again. Okay.

 

So as I said, if you’ve got this cost push and firms can’t pass it on, that doesn’t happen. Margins get crushed. Don’t think that’s a risk here in the US at the moment. Do think that’s a risk in Europe because these PPI increases are just so large. Right. And if you’re a Spanish company and your PPI went up 23.6%, you cannot pass on 23.6% increases to the consumer. In the US, if your prices went up eight and a half, you can wiggle a little bit through productivity, maybe a couple. You can probably get away with 5% price increases. Okay. So margin assumptions may be utterly wrong, but if they aren’t, what does that mean, Tony? It means that price inflation is rising, and in which case inflation is not transitory. And that’s the second big assumption. So they’ve assumed margins rise. Oh, and conveniently, inflation is transitory. And that in a cost push environment, you can’t square that circle. Right. One has to be wrong.

 

My gut is at the moment, it’s the latter in the US, not the former, more worried about the former in Europe in Q4. But that’s another thing, which I think the market has miraculously misread. But as I said, as those pricing pressures come through, I think policymakers and markets will have to adjust significantly. And I think it set us up for a policy error sometime next year. Probably huge. Probably.

 

TN: We’ll trip over ourselves with policy errors until we see this. And then when we do see some sort of reckoning, we’ll have even more policy errors.

 

JB: Correct. As Raul and I say constantly on Macro Insiders you just do buy the dip. You just got to figure out when the dip comes because you don’t want to be in when the dip comes and when you hold your nose and grab your bits and decide that you’re going to jump into the deep end and buy it by the seller.

 

TN: Great. Julian, thank you so much for your time. This has been fantastic for everyone watching. Please subscribe to our YouTube channel. It really helps us a lot to get those subscribers. And Julian, I hope we can revisit with you again sometime soon. Thanks very much.

 

JB: Thanks. Bye bye.

Categories
QuickHit

Quick Hit Cage Match: Van Metre vs Boockvar on Inflation (Part 1)

Van Metre vs Boockvar on Inflation (Part 1)

This special QuickHit Cage Match edition is joined by opposing sides of inflation versus deflation with Steven van Metre and Peter Boockvar. Why one thinks we’re having deflation and the other believes in inflation? How soon will this happen and to which commodities and industries?

 

This is the first part of the discussion. Subscribe to our Youtube Channel to get notified when Part 2 is out.

 

Part 2 is out. Watch it here.

 

Steven van Metre is a money manager who have invented a strategy called Portfolio Shield. He also has a YouTube show that discusses economic data and the news three days a week.

 

Peter Boockvar is the Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager at Bleakley Advisory Group. He has a daily macromarket economic newsletter called The Boock Report.

 

 

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📊 Forward-looking companies become more profitable with Complete Intelligence. The only fully automated and globally integrated AI platform for smarter cost and revenue planning. Book a demo here.

📈 Check out the CI Futures platform to forecast currencies, commodities, and equity indices

 

This QuickHit episode was recorded on October 14, 2021.

 

The views and opinions expressed in this Quick Hit Cage Match: Van Metre vs Boockvar on Inflation episode are those of the guest and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Complete Intelligence. Any contents provided by our guest are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any political party, religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything.

Show Notes

 

TS: I kind of want to start broadly here. So if you could give me your two minute elevator pitch on your view on whether you’re an inflationist or deflationist, even though we already know who is who. And how fluid is your view?

 

PB: So if we just break down, inflation is just the simple, too much money chasing too few goods. We certainly have too few goods with supply challenges around the world and too much money with a lot of fiscal spending over the past 18 months financed by the Federal Reserve buying most of that debt that the treasury issued to finance a lot of this fiscal spending. So it’s combining with inflation situation where it’s really just a good side. That is the part of the debate.

 

Services inflation is rather persistent. For the past 20 years leading into Covid, services inflation XNERGY is averaged almost 3%, but goods have been basically zero. And it’s always that trade off that has resulted in an inflation rate of 1% to 2% over the last couple of decades. But now you are back on trend with services inflation, and I’ll argue that will accelerate from here because of rents. And now you combine that with a period of goods inflation. Now, goods inflation is typically cyclical, if history is any guide. But how long of a cyclical rise we have really is the question. And I just think it’s not going to be so short term that it could last a couple of years.

 

SVM: Yeah. So I think that the inflation story is going to be more, at least the former Fed’s view of being on the transitory side, and I take that view strictly from my understanding of how the monetary system works, looking at the velocity of money, the fiscal stimulus cliff going away.

 

While I do agree that Peter will be right and that we will likely see higher inflation, and I agree in where he thinks it’s coming from in terms of the supply chain. I completely agree with that. But I do think ultimately those higher prices will get rejected without a sustained amount of new money coming in from fiscal or other means or from lending growth. And so even though we’ll see rising prices and they will probably go up a bit more, ultimately, I think the consumer will reject them just like we saw during the great financial crisis and that we are more likely to see inflation turn down pretty hard and perhaps even into the deflation.

 

TS: Either one of you can jump in here. Where do you see inflation, deflation hitting the soonest and the hardest? We’re looking at commodities that are still running very hot, supply chains that are very stressed. At what point do you think we see demand destruction? And how long do you think that we’re going to see these extremes in the destruction and supply chains that are causing much of this current inflation?

 

PB: Well, we’re already seeing some demand responses. We are seeing a slowdown in economic growth. Part of that is a pushback against these price increases. If you look at the housing market, there’s particularly the first time home buyer that has sticker shock and doesn’t want to pay for a home that’s priced 20% more than it was a year ago. And they’re saying, okay, let me take a pause here.

 

So there is some of that. But then, of course, there’s also some forced demand destruction because enough product can’t be delivered and that an auto plan has to shut down an assembly line because they can’t get enough parts, and they’re not sure when they’re going to be able to get enough. Or it’s Nike that can’t deliver enough store product to foot locker because it’s going to take 80 days to get it from their factory in Vietnam rather than 40 days.

 

Now, at some point, goods, inflation is going to be temporary. The question is, how long does it take to resolve itself? And one of the things that I think will unfold here is that let’s just take transportation costs, because that is a main factor in the rise in inflation, because every single thing that’s made in this world ends up on a plane, a ship, a truck or a railroad to get it from point A to point B.

 

So let’s just say I’m a toy manufacturer, and my transportation costs are now 35% year of year on top of the cost of my wholesale cost to actually get the product, and my cost of labor is up 5% to 7% year over year. Well, I’m not going to recoup that all in one shot by raising prices to Walmart by 10%. It could take me a couple of years to recoup that. But I promise you, I’m going to do my best to do so, and I’m going to space that out. I’m going to try my best to cushion the blow to that end, buyer who’s buying for their kids for Christmas by spacing out that price increase. But I know I’m going to have visibility because everyone else is going to be doing the same thing for the next three years in raising prices so I can recapture, I may not be able to regain completely, but recapture some of my lost profit margin. So that’s one of the reasons why I think this is going to be sticky.

 

And to Steve’s point, yes, there’s going to be a fiscal fall up next year to some extent. We’ll see how much of the lost transferred payments are going to be offset by both the child tax money, plus people going back to work. We saw jobs claim have a two handle today for the first time since pre-Covid and to what extent wage increases can offset the rise in the cost of living? And yeah, we’ll have to see that. But the question is, how much do prices come back in?

 

You take lumber, for example, and I’ll give it to Steve right after this, lumber prices in the heart of the housing bubble in the mid 2000s was about $300. Now it went up to $1600 now it’s about 650. The cost of a home, construction wise, and what a builder would charge their customer is not going back to where it was. They are going to use this and fatten their margin as best they can, and it’s going to take years for that buyer to experience what is truly reflected at 650 lumber, but that’s even more than double where it was. So it’s still multiple years of price increases that are going to flew through the chain.

 

SVM: Yeah. Peter, you bring up some absolutely excellent points about how long this could go. And that’s something I really haven’t considered that it could run a couple of years because I look at this fiscal cliff and to me, you go back to the pandemic and we know all this was driven by fiscal stimulus. And without it, and I know we still have the child tax credit for a bit. I’m just concerned that this drop off comes a lot stronger than most people are expecting. And I do realize a lot of these goods are sitting off ports waiting to get shipped in, waiting for truckers to take them to warehouses and eventually on the stores.

 

The question I keep asking is when those goods hit the shelves, will consumers be there with money? Do they have the money to spend? Are they going to go back to work fast enough? And even though, as you mentioned, we had a two handle today, we both know that that’s almost 50% higher than normal.

 

So the question is we still see this huge amount of job openings everywhere. We’re not seeing people go back to work. We saw the jolt state. I know you looked at that recently from the other day where people are quitting their jobs. And so I keep coming back to the same question is will consumers come and spend and keep these prices up? If they don’t, then we get the reversal. But that’s my question. Do they come?

 

PB: It’s a great question of whether that will be the case. I don’t think the labor market is going back to where it was pre Covid. And all you have to do is look at the participation rate to confirm that, particularly for the age group of 25 to 54 year olds, which is sort of the core wage earning population, and it’s still well below where it was in February 2020. So, yeah, we’re not going back to a 3.5% unemployment rate with the same number of employed people anytime soon.

 

Now, what is replacing a lot of the lost sort of or not made up fiscal money that has been spent, particularly December 2020 with Trump’s last fiscal package and then repeated just a few months later with Biden, is that eventually we do have that child tax money that’s going out. We do have an increase in food stamps. Basically that reservation wage, which is basically the wage level at which someone has a tough choice of whether do they go take that job or do they collect all the government handout? That continues to go up.

 

So that person who may not want to go back to work while they’re getting a lot of benefits elsewhere. And while the aggregate, we’re going to probably see some sort of fiscal drop off. The question is, is that enough from the demand side to offset what’s going on in the supply side?

 

Now, again, supply side is going to normalize at some point. There’s no question about it. Just a matter of when. Taiwan semi is spending billions of dollars that just broke ground in June in Arizona to build a semi plant. Well, it’s not going to be done until 2024.

 

Now, there could be a lot of double ordering, triple ordering that’s going on in Semis right now. We’re going to have this major inventory hangover. We’re already actually seeing it in DRAM, for example. And that could happen. And there’s going to be a mess at the other end of this. I just think that this drags out and also a key part of this inflation debate, too, is in what context is this coming in?

 

If we had a Fed funds rate in the US of 3%, if we had a ten year at four to five, if we didn’t have such thing as negative interest rates, I’d say, “you know what the world can handle about of higher inflation because interest rates are higher. If equity valuations weren’t as extreme as they are and they were more in line with history,” I would say, okay, “we can absorb it.” But that’s not the case right now. We have valuations that are excessive in a variety of different things. Obviously, we have zero interest rates, negative interest rates, QE and so on. So even if inflation decelerated to, let’s just say a 3% rate for a year or two. I just don’t think that the world is positioned for that.

 

SVM: Yeah. I’m not worried about the upper 50%. I’m really curious about the bottom 50%, who is really the big recipients. I know a lot of people got the fiscal checks, but my wife is a fourth grade teacher, and one of the problems they’re having in schools right now, and you’ve probably been hearing about this is a kid or a staff or a teacher gets Covid, and next thing you know, they’re quarantining out segments of the classroom. They’re sending them home. And the parents are really struggling with this because they want to go back to work. But then all of a sudden, their kids back and they can’t.

 

And so they’re forced to stay at home and they don’t have the family support. Maybe they don’t want to send the kids to grandma and grandpa because they don’t want them to get sick in case their kid has it. And so I keep wondering, without all this fiscal support from the government is the natural expectation, particularly with higher energy prices, as we go into the winter, that these cash-strapped households are going to ultimately make the choice to I’ve got to buy food. We all know that’s gone up. We have to pay for energy. We know that’s gone up. As Peter, as you mentioned earlier, that rents are probably going up. So what does that leave in terms of discretionary income to spend to drive inflation?

 

And I kind of wonder, without their spending power, how is this going to last? And that’s my big concern is I don’t think it does. I think consumers are going to reject it. I don’t think they have the income. I don’t think the money supply is growing fast enough. And then you start looking at the dollar and interest rates and you would want to see the dollar going down. You want to see interest rates going up and we keep seeing the dollar fighting to go higher.

 

We keep seeing interest rates trying to press back lower, and it’s telling us that financial conditions are tight. And, of course, the Feds potentially about to taper and start to remove their support of that. And I just keep kind of shaking my head going, like, how are we going to get through the holiday season unless consumers come out and spend a big way? I’m just not convinced.

 

TS: Well, perfect segue into what I kind of wanted to get into next was talking about the Fed tapering. So first, because everybody’s talking about this. Do you see the Fed tapering? And if they do, how much is this going to affect inflation? And also, I know the market is saying the Fed is going to raise rates in ’22, ’23. But is this a reality at all?

Categories
Podcasts

Blame the Hot Money

US markets continue their bullish trend. BFM 89.9 asks Tony Nash if this is due to better than expected corporate earnings in the coming quarters or the Fed monetary policy. Also discussed are the OPEC+ oil production and how oil will be affected by hurricane Ida, and what’s the status of supply chain specially around semiconductors?

 

This podcast first appeared and originally published at https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/market-watch/blame-the-hot-money on September 2, 2021.

 

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Show Notes

 

WSN: We speak to Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence. Now, US markets, I think it’s a bit of a choppy day, but still, nonetheless, the trend is bullish one. And what is that based on, though, is it expectations of stronger corporate earnings this quarter or just driven by ample liquidity flooding financial markets?

 

TN: I think more the latter than the former. We saw really good corporate earnings in the previous quarter, but in the current quarter, we’re hearing more rumblings of trouble with earnings. And that’s part of the base effect in the previous quarters, in 2020, companies had cut a lot of costs late in the year, so they’re reaping the benefits now. We’re starting to see the base effects come in where they had already cut a lot of those expenses in Q3 of 2020. So now we’ll see that going forward, we won’t see as much kind of profitability.

 

So what’s the baked into the market right now? It’s the Fed, it’s stimulus. It’s an expectation of a $3 trillion fiscal stimulus bill. So if we start to hear that this $3 trillion fiscal infrastructure bill won’t happen, we’ll see some disappointment if we see the jobs numbers on Friday come in disappointing, we’ll see some dampened momentum. And if we hear any more talk about tapering, which I don’t think we will for at least six months. But if we do, we’ll see some downward pressure in the market.

 

So all of those things are possible. But in the meantime, the Fed is injecting $120 billion into the market every month to keep everyone happy. And markets seem to be taking it well.

 

WSN: And I want to stay on corporate earnings, because I just wonder whether the recent inflationary pressures on the economy will be reflected in perhaps lower margins for corporate’s incoming quarters.

 

TN: Sure, companies are feeling pressure not just with raw materials and input factors, but also with salaries. Wage inflation in the US is pretty high right now. Companies are feeling it from all sides. So I think those margins are much thinner, both on those base effects I mentioned earlier. Also inflationary effects, both in terms of input goods and wages.

 

PS: And you say you paint a bit more cloudy picture for the US, but if you compare the US economy and financial markets versus Europe and China, they really have outperformed global peer strike. Could you explain it disparities there?

 

TN: When you look at China, I think it really has a lot to do with stimulus. China is really late to the game in terms of providing stimulus. They spent quite a long time in 2020 and 2021 deleveraging their economy. So getting rid of debt. Very procyclical. China was shrinking and they were delivering, which is maybe healthy for the balance sheet, but not necessarily the best thing to do to grow the economy.

 

In Europe, the ECB is really nervous with inflation. And so they may take more aggressive action against inflation instead of continuing to loosen to accelerate the economy. So the US is outperformed because nobody thinks the Fed is going to take aggressive action year, certainly. And probably not at least until Q two of 2022.

 

WSN: And how do you think the US dollar will react against the Euro and the yen in light of all these recent FED announcements on the timing of the tapering and also the rate hikes?

 

TN: We have the dollar continuing to weaken through, say, November. And we’re starting to see some expectations of dollar strength, not a lot of strength, but marginal dollar strength starting in, say, November. And that could be on, say, ECB deciding to continue to loosen. It could be on China. Adding stimulus. Currency is a relative game. As central banks get more active globally relative to the US, it could really help weaken their currencies on a relative basis.

 

PS: And let’s talk about oil because I want to get your views on yesterday’s OPEC+ meeting. They are sticking to next month’s  oil production increases. What impact will that have on prices in view? There also Hurricane Ida has also hit US or production?

 

TN: Yeah. Well, he can. It has fit some under sea production, but it’s really hit more refining capacity than really production. So the bigger issue in the US is around gasoline prices and refining, than it is around kind of supply of oil with OPEC+, it’s kind of a status quo. Let’s move ahead as we had expected, which is a really good sign. Look, oil is trading between what, 67 and $75 generally, and that’s kind of their happy. So as long as it stays in that zone, OPEC will continue to move ahead and stay within the agreement. If it goes higher, then they may accelerate the production. If it goes lower, they may pull back a little bit.

 

WSN: And let’s stay on supply side disruptions. Right. We talked about that just a few minutes ago. But do you think that there are still concerns over this, especially for things like semiconductors and certain commodities?

 

TN: Oh, yeah. Absolutely. So the supply chain issues, we hear a lot about Chinese ports and backups to Chinese ports and these sorts of things. But the Port in Long Beach in the US is backed up, hugely backed up. So the supply chain shocks are not only in China. US ports have their own issues. So when I hear, say, American companies complain about supply chain issues in China, that’s not the only factor. It’s US ports catching up. It’s US ports that are delayed and so on and so forth.

 

So I don’t think we’re done with this. In fact, it may get a little bit worse because the holiday season is coming up in a few months. And if we think supply chains are backed up now, they may get even worse going into, say, October and November, especially to import into the US.

 

PS: I mean, some are even saying that this could even go on to, quarter 1, ’22 or even the likes of semi cons.

 

TN: Oh, absolutely. Semiconductor supply chains are incredibly complex. So for them to get out of these issues, there are multiple layers of issues that have to be reconciled, and it could easily be Q1 ’22 by the time we’re out of this.

 

WSN: All right. Thank you for your time. There was Tony Nash. CEO of Complete Intelligence, giving us his views on where world markets are hitting. And I think the interesting point is that, look, the bullish trend is here to stay as long as the Feds just keep rates where they are. Plus, of course, there are expectations with regards to the US stimulus plan on the infrastructure bill. Right. Which I think is now going through the House. And apparently there’s something like 700 amendments that the Republicans want this document through the Max.

 

PS: I know, but I think they are optimistic. I hope to prove this call in October, but Tony does point relatively bleak picture for the short term. September. October is also seasonally weak in the US and also the stimulus packages or end or swim September. Very interesting. What he’s saying about the Fed is not likely to say much about tapering for the next six months as well.

 

WSN: Yeah.

I mean, if you look at where markets are right. The S&P 500 is up 20%. The Nasdaq are almost close to 19%. The Dow Jones is 16%. If I was a fund manager, I would do nothing. In fact, I might be tempted to lock in my games. Right. Because the year is almost coming to a close. Do I want to take on more risk for the potential return of two? 3%, maybe not. So we might be heading into quieter months for at least one or two, maybe towards year end, and then we might see some book closing.

 

But till now, maybe everyone’s just taking a bit of a breather. Look at markets, at what kind of corporate earnings will be coming out, and let’s see where the politicians are up to.

 

PS: And I wonder whether there’s an opportunity to reallocate to other markets in Europe where you see some value and even Southeast Asia as well in the midterm long term as well, for sure.

 

WSN: I’m sure Financiers already considering the Strategic allocation for 2022 Actually and rotating into markets that perhaps did not do as well this year. Stay tuned. BFM 89.9.

Categories
Podcasts

Cold Front on Oil Prices?

Tony Nash is back in the Morning Run, hosted by BFM 89.9, as he points out the crude oil price and how long to expect the rally, considering factors like weather, demand, and supply. Tony also mentioned about a potential pullback and snap and how you can better be prepared for it. Should you continue buying tech stocks or move elsewhere? Also, they discussed crops and where the prices are going this year.

 

This podcast first appeared and originally published at https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/market-watch/cold-front-on-oil-prices on February 18, 2021.

 

❗️ Check out more of our insights in featured in the CI Newsletter and QuickHit interviews with experts.

❗️ Discover how Complete Intelligence can help your company be more profitable with AI and ML technologies. Book a demo here.

 

BFM Description

 

Tony Nash from Complete Intelligence, from freezing Texas, shares with us the current supply constraints in the US impacting oil prices in the short- and medium-term.

 

Produced by: Mike Gong

 

Presented by: Philip See, Wong Shou Ning

 

 

Show Notes

 

WSN: For some color on where global markets are heading, we have in the line with us Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence. Tony, are you freezing out there in Texas?

 

TN: Yes, we are. We haven’t had it this cold air for decades. So it’s it’s been a really interesting week.

 

WSN: That has had an impact on oil prices. Bloomberg showing Brent crude at $64 per barrel, WTI at $61 per barrel. So how badly impacted our energy markets at the moment? Where do you think oil prices are going?

 

TN: A lot of this is very short term. What you’re not seeing that the traders really pay attention to right now is that a lot of refineries are closed because of weather and they’re starting to close for annual maintenance. There’s this presumption that there’s a demand pull, which we’re not really seeing from anywhere in the world right now, and that the winter storm issues will pull energy prices. But again, the fact is the refineries that would take this stuff are closed. We expect this to be short lived. This is an extension of a crude price rally that we saw that we expected to come in Jan, it’s lasted into February and we really don’t expect this to have a lot of legs to it.

 

PS: What do you think the outlook looks like then for the mid-term like quarter to quarter three?

 

TN: We would see 10 to 20 percent off of this price? We don’t necessarily think that this is a sustainable level short of some sort of supply cuts. But the weather in Texas, for example, we’re going to be kind of in normal weather ranges in two days. What we’ve seen this week and the close down, as we’ve seen this week, it’ll take people a couple of days, maybe a week at most to get things back on line. So this perceived supply shortage will be back on line fairly soon.

 

WSN: How about yields on U.S. 10 year bonds? Because they’ve hit a new high one year high. What what is that trying to tell this? What a market try to tell us?

 

TN: U.S. is trying to raise money and they’re willing to pay more for it. I think that is is really it. I think there is a growing fear that equity markets are as high as they’ll get. We’ve started to see more of that tension come in into chatter over the last few days. People are willing to pay to get out of markets, to park their money in debt.

 

So I’m sure it helps the U.S. as they’re raising more money for stimulus and for operations. But as we creep up to four thousand, that is just unimaginable for a lot of people. And it’s not as if we are doing better as an economy than we were in 2019 or the first quarter of 2020. This is built on stimulus, as we’ve talked about before. It’s built on central bank activity.

 

And you can only stretch that so far before things have to snap. We’ll see some of these things that are at double and triple and quadruple kind of the standard multiples. And P is the only way to measure this stuff. But we’ll see things that are really, really stretched, snap into a more reasonable region. But it’ll happen any time tomorrow, three weeks from now, a month from now, whatever. It’ll just happen. It’ll happen any time. And it’s best to be prepared for it.

 

PS: So are you expecting some pullback eventually? Right. What is the tipping point where investors will essentially do that exodus or flock to U.S. Treasuries then?

 

TN: One of the tipping points is going to be the resolution of stimulus. I’ve been saying for weeks that stimulus will not be what the administration wants it to be. There are such high expectations put on that stimulus right now and they’re not going to get it. They’ll get a lot of it, but they’re not going to get all of it. Expectations are sky high. And when it doesn’t hit, I think that will be one of the catalysts.

 

But there are other things like when the crude price starts to fall because this supply constraint isn’t there anymore. These sorts of things, these things add up and then they snowball and and then you start to see markets really, really take a dove. We’re not necessarily calling for a 2008 generational type of decline in markets. It’s just a bit of a pullback so that people can just say, “OK, wait a minute, let’s check, take stock how businesses are doing. Take a look at our investments and our allocation and then reallocate.” That’s really what it’s about.

 

WSN: Where would you relocate to and what are the safe haven assets? Because almost every asset class on a year to date basis is up. Right. And maybe except for Google, which is down six percent on the year today.

 

TN: What you’re likely going to see is a pretty serious rotation out of technology where people have focused on because of the work from home activities. This may not be immediate, but I think you’ll see a rotation out of a lot of the work from home stuff as people start real life again and you’ll see people move into. This is not really my the basis of our outlook. But you may see more of a regional move into things like tourism.

 

These things have just taken real hits. A lot of them have had speculative rises, some of the cruise lines. But some of them are still way down. All of this depends on gradual normalization. But I can tell you, Americans are really tired of being locked in, really tired of not socializing. And some of these things are going to have to start up again.

 

PS: What about not all out commodities then, like agriculture and precious metals?

 

TN: We had some real pressure. And part of the reason of that pressure was because there was a perception that a lot of the Chinese corn crop didn’t come in last year. But a lot of the drought was outside of that zone. Some of that pressure was alleviated.

 

But still, we’re seeing some pressure on wheat right now in the U.S. It really all depends on how much the current cold snap impacts the output later in the year or the ability to plant. Right now it’s not terrible.

 

Until we start seeing real demand come back in entertaining and in consumption and these sorts of things, we’re not going to see a major demand pull on food because people are already buying their standard cook at home type of things right now as they’ve rebuilt their behaviors over the last year. We’ll see that change. But unless we see a drought or unless we see an issue in a high consumption part of the world, we’re not necessarily going to see a boom in those places.

 

WSN: All right. Thank you for your time. That was Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, giving us his views on global markets and saying that, hey, oil prices are going to come under pressure probably in the next two to three months, because this is not really driven by real demand, is just probably weather patterns which are going to normalize anyway in Texas in a few days.

 

PS: He also made a point about oil, where this, I think, a slight surge in prices is actually a short term because supply is going to get back on quite soon.

 

WSN: Yeah, but other interesting news is actually the ongoing saga of big tech versus Australia, because it looks like Facebook has defied Australia’s push to make big pay for news by banning the sharing of content on its platform in the country. And this is the most far reaching restriction is ever placed on any publisher in any part of the world.

 

PS: So the extreme step to remove Australian news came as Google separately struck a global deal with Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp diffusing a long running dispute between the two companies. The dramatically different approaches could mark a pivotal moment for the media industry, which had hoped Australia’s tough regulatory approach would help reset its terms of trade with Google and Facebook worldwide.

 

WSN: So the moves by Google and Facebook came on the day Australia begin debating laws that would force big online platforms to license news. Now Facebook’s action will have a global impact. Under the provisions, news from Australian publishers will be blocked on the platform for all Facebook users, regardless of where they are based. The Australian government said it will continue to engage with Facebook. Press ahead with legislating the code, Canberra also warned that withdrawing news from Facebook’s platform in Australia could dent its credibility with users.

While this is quite big stuff. Actually, yes.

 

PS: Yes. I mean, Australia wasn’t the first country to, you know, get into this spat. I think you really was in having discussions. And France and Spain already had deals with a lot of with Google and Facebook with respect to media purchase. But it’s a question about publishers.

 

WSN: Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, right. We do know media companies are suffering. Right. Álex has come under pressure. Subscriber growth has come down. How a media company is going to generate the revenue. So in the past, all these big tech companies, the argument was that they got to earn super normal above what is the what super normal profits without paying the likes of the media companies because they were using these media companies content to their benefit.

 

So some countries like Australia and even if you try to kind of diffuse the situation and have, I suppose maybe in their mind, a fairer playing field. But the Google deal nonetheless, if you look at it, the Google deal with News Corp announced on Wednesday goes beyond the Australian market, extending to Murdoch’s titles such as The Wall Street Journal and The New York Post in the U.S. and The Times and the Sun in the UK. No other news publisher has reached a single deal with Google across multiple countries.

 

Now, critics say the deal would benefit News Corp. rather than the rest of the news industry.

 

PS: Yes, well, we’ve been talking about the price. And since you looking at Google’s valuation, I suspect Google’s to be the winner because they have just really this unique access to this quality content. So. So why not?

 

WSN: Well, they’ve pledged so far to spend one billion over the years on buying news content and reach agreements with publishers in about a dozen countries.

 

But we’ll be watching this space because we do a media outlet.

 

But up next, we’ll be discussing the recently announced national unity blueprint. Stay tuned for that. BFM eighty nine point nine.

 

Thank you for listening to this podcast. To find full great interviews, go to PFM Goodbye or find us on iTunes, BFM eighty nine point nine. That is the station.

 

Categories
Podcasts

Microsoft Executive Backs Australian Government In Tech War

Tech war in Australia, Trump’s impeachment hearing, companies moving to cheaper areas, volatility in the market, and online dating — these are some of the topics in the recent guesting of Tony Nash at BBC’s Business Matters. From Texas, he joins Rahul Tandon in UK and Michelle Jamrisko in Singapore.

 

What will happen to Australian businesses if Google left? Will Biden be involved in China deals? How will Trump’s impeachment hearings will bring about? How will this move to rural places evolve overtime, for example Californian companies moving to Texas? How will the stocks market play out with too much volatility with increasing number of retail investors? And will online scrabble be the new way of dating?

 

This podcast was published on February 12, 2021 and the original source can be found at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w172x197h9pkh53

 

BBC Business Matters Description:

 

The President of Microsoft, Brad Smith, says Australia’s proposals that tech giants pay for news appearing on their services, strengthen democracy by supporting a free press. We hear more from Rebecca Klar, a tech journalist from The Hill. As the second cricket test match in this series between India and England starts this weekend, the BBC’s Rahul Tandon reports that more Indian players are now coming from smaller towns than bigger cities, and how that reflects a broader economic change taking place in the country. It’s an interesting time for dating services with the pandemic throwing the world of romance into disarray; our reporter Deborah Weitzmann has been to meet some people looking for love in the time of Covid. And we’re joined throughout the programme by Michelle Jamrisko, Blomberg’s senior Asia economy reporter who is based in Singapore and economist, Tony Nash from Complete Intelligence; he’s based in Houston.

 

 

Show Notes

 

RT: Will there be some sort of compromise? Because Australia, and many of the businesses in Australia, particularly small and medium sized ones, would struggle if Google suddenly left?

 

TN: They would. How much of a compromise there would be? I’m not sure, and I think about like GDP in Europe, that wasn’t a real huge compromise. We start to see these nation states starting to act like nation states again. We’ve seen India push back on Twitter over the past. Right? And we’re starting to see countries push back on tech giants because they’re sovereign nations.

 

RT: What will we see countries getting together in a unified way to push back on the tech giants because there are two very powerful sides there?

 

TN: I hope they do, because they rule their own countries. And it’s up to a company to learn how to operate within a geography rather than the other way around.

 

RT: Do you think President Biden will want to get involved in this particular issue?

 

TN: I don’t think so. It’s interesting when you look at, like China has their way with tech companies all day long. They cultivate their own giants and they do whatever they want with Western companies. I don’t really think Biden will get involved or want to get involved, to be honest. I think it has a lot to do with whoever is closer to the campaign and whoever is closest to the Oval Office. But I think he would want to stay out of it.

 

RT: Do you think minds will be changed amongst those Republicans, 17 of them are going to have to vote to impeach President Trump? That looks unlikely, doesn’t it?

 

TN: Well, like Joe Biden, I really don’t know of anybody who’s watched it.

 

RT: I read something that said this had more viewers than the first impeachment trial. But from what you’re saying, it’s not exactly something that’s bringing in the ratings figures.

 

TN: I’m a political nerd. I talk to people all the time. I honestly don’t know of anybody who’s watching it. So what you say is possible, but it’s just not what I see. Do I think they change minds? Look, Trump is out of office like somebody pining over like losing a football game or something. This guy is out of office. They need to just let him go. That’s the way most of the people who I speak to feel. Every politician is competitive. Every politician uses rhetoric to win. And what Trump said was no different from what many, many Republicans and Democrats have said over the last four, eight, 12, 16 years. So I think this is just a clown show and it’s not going to result in anything.

 

RT: Michelle raised an interesting question, that is this about preventing what happened, making sure it doesn’t happen again or is a little bit about this preventing from Donald Trump running again?

 

TN: It’s more the latter than the former. If we look at the Supreme Court justice discussions over the last two years, especially during the cabinet hearings, there were protests in government buildings in the capital all over the place, people being violent.

 

RT: But this was different and they’re very different.

 

TN: But I don’t understand how it was different because though this was different because there was so much ruckus made about it and people wanted to make an issue of it. But if you look at the protests and the violence around the Kavanaugh hearings and you set them side by side with what happened on January 6th, there is very, very little difference aside from the Capitol Police letting people into the Capitol building, which they did.

 

And it’s on footage. People also let protesters into various government buildings during the Capitol hearings. So, again, this is completely about Donald Trump. Democrats are obsessed with Donald Trump and they just need to let it go. The guy’s not even in office anymore, so they just need to let it go.

 

RT: It’s not going to be let go for a while. And it’s going to be a conversation that we will be continuing here on business matters over the next few days as that impeachment trial continues. And Tony, China says to the U.S. confrontation will be disastrous. President Biden says he will work with China when it benefits the American people and he will have to work with China on some issues when he particularly his ideas on climate change.

 

TN: We will live in an integrated world. I actually think Xi Jinping would talk a a tougher game on climate change than Biden would. He certainly has at the World Economic Forum for several years. The question is what they actually do about it.

 

I actually worked for the Chinese government for a couple of years and the Central Economic Planning Agency. So I understand in a very detailed matter how the Chinese government actually works. And this discussion is just preliminary. It doesn’t mean anything. OK, we’ll know in six or nine or 18 months what the real policies are.

 

My concerns are with, we really have to look at the people on the National Security Council in the US and their relationships with China.How many paid speeches have they had in China that those are the biggest issues that we need to look at with regard to China policy today from the U.S. perspective.

 

RT: That trend in India where we’re seeing the growth of what’s called Taiwan tier two, often, these much smaller towns. Is that something that you’re seeing in Texas at all or is it still very much focused around Houston, Dallas, Austin, economic growth?

 

TN: First on India. The tier two and three cities is something I would forecast when I was with The Economist back in those days. We did work on this 10, 15 years ago. And it’s amazing to see it happen. You go outside of cities like Chandigarh and you see what used to be fields. That is all some suburban cities. It’s really incredible to see that is in Texas.

 

What we’ve seen since COVID is more people are moving to semi-rural areas or buying bigger plots of land further out. And it’s some people from Texas, but it’s a lot of people from outside of Texas. Some of us, including myself, get a little bit defensive about Texas, if you can imagine.

 

RT: One interesting thing I think that we are seeing as well is maybe COVID will accelerate this. But this was always going to happen, that we will see businesses moving to cheaper areas. We see that in the States, don’t we? With some movement from California towards Texas?

 

TN: Yes, but you also see this in places like I was hearing about a technology company that in Taiwan, so the companies are based in Taipei, for example, and the workers wanted to move outside of the city since they couldn’t come into town, into the office. So they moved to small towns around Taiwan where their family was. The company actually indexed their pay based upon the cost of living to those country towns. Right. So and I think what you’ll start seeing as you see the diffusion of employment, companies will start looking at their costs and say, “look, these people aren’t paying for an apartment in Manhattan, they’re living in Iowa.” So we need to really understand where people are living. That company in Taiwan was using mobile phone records to understand where those individuals were so they can index their pay. I think you’ll see more and more of that. It’s not that people won’t be able to live. It’s just that they won’t make the salary from Manhattan while living in, say, rural Texas.

 

RT: I think we’re seeing that in many parts of the world with that sort of story you described. The taking place in and companies looking at and what’s happening with employees if they move to what you could describe as cheaper areas.

 

We had Carrie Lee here, there being a little bit cautious about what’s happening with many of these companies are going public. There is a lot of cash around from stimulus in the U.S. Interest rates are very low. Do you see this continuing?

 

TN: We’re very late in the investment cycle and we’ve moved from a company being valued on its earnings or future potential to a speculator’s market. And a lot of what we’re seeing in markets today are stocks that pop for one day by 50 percent and then they lose that 50 percent the next day. We just saw that with a big pot stock, a big marijuana stock over the past 24 hours here in the U.S. And people are trying to to squeeze out as much gain as they can in markets. So this this market is very long in the tooth. I just don’t see this lasting much longer because we are in such a speculative market right now.

 

RT: Do you not think that when stimulus begins to to slow down in many parts of the world, some of that frothiness in the markets may disappear?

 

TN: There’s a concept of stock, meaning how much money is in the market. And then there’s a concept of flow, meaning how much money is moving into the market. And because a lot of the investment climate right now is focused on flow. So how much money is coming in stimulus? How much money is coming in support from other mechanisms? Not necessarily a reallocation of the money that’s already in the market.

 

One of the big triggers potentially could be a possible disappointment with the the package coming out of the U.S. Congress. If it’s not what people have been promised, then there’s a possibility that those marginal investors who’ve been pumping stocks up by 50 percent per day could be squeezed out of the market. And then we see that flow start or grind to a trickle. And then the action really slows down and then we start to see a correction. No one wants to call a top. I don’t necessarily think this is it. I have no idea. But it is that stock and flow discussion that really worries me.

 

RT: The thought of dating is always absolutely petrified me. I was always happy my mom would have arranged my marriage and to Indian way somehow there were not many takers. Unfortunately, if you had to go back in the dating scene, would playing Scrabble online be your idea of romance?

 

TN: No. No, not at all, sorry, it just doesn’t cut it.

 

RT: No?

 

TN: We would find way. Look, I have two 19 year old kids. They get out, they’ve been social. Their friends are dating. I know it’s impacted some parts of the world in a very difficult way, but it hasn’t necessarily impacted my kids and their friends. I certainly wouldn’t settle for online scrabble. Who is the researcher at the university in London who snuck out for a hookup? I think we would sneak out outside a curfew to get things done if needed.

 

RT: OK. All right. Thank you, Tony. We’re getting a very different image of you now. Tony, stop sneaking out, please. No breaking curfew for you. That’s it for business matters.

Categories
Podcasts

American Carnage

In this Morning Run BFM podcast episode, Tony Nash justifies his pessimistic outlook of the US political environment on markets and the transition of the Reddit Army into a full-blown populist movement. Will this be a common theme in the US markets? And what does he mean about the 97% correlation between Bitcoin and gun sales?

 

This podcast first appeared and originally published at https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/market-watch/american-carnage on February 4, 2021.

 

❗️ Check out more of our insights in featured in the CI Newsletter and QuickHit interviews with experts.

❗️ Discover how Complete Intelligence can help your company be more profitable with AI and ML technologies. Book a demo here.

 

 

Show Notes

 

WSN: To find out where global markets are heading, we have on the line with us Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence. Let’s have this little bit of discussion. Will the tussle between the populous investors and institutional shareholders lead to any real structural change in the way Wall Street behaves? Do you think this is going to be a common phenomenon?

 

TN: I do. I don’t think we’ll see much change politically because the funds themselves are very large donors for politicians. There really isn’t an incentive for politicians and regulators to change things. But the populism that we’ve seen in U.S. politics over the last four to six years or even 10 years, it’s growing into financial markets and people are really angry with Wall Street. They’re really angry with bailouts for funds and for banks.

 

This type of populist activism and distributing investment are going to continue and it’ll get more aggressive if the government doesn’t respond or if the funds respond aggressively and arrogantly. This could turn into an aggressive political movement. The funds and the regulators have to be really careful here.

 

PS: You really hit the nail on the head because if you see the backlash, you see the right wing with Ted Cruz, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on the left, both asking for investigations and reviews to this. Do you think the US government and the politics of both sides will be able to reconcile and find a solution to regulate, monitor this?

 

TN: They may have an “investigation.” I think nothing will happen. Again, these funds have deep pockets. They invest a lot of money, either directly or indirectly through shadow organizations and corrupt means. So zero will happen on this. Unless there is dramatic…

 

You guys have heard of Antifa in Malaysia, right? If Wall Street needs turned into an Antifa-like organization, and had violent protests, then maybe we would see some results. But there is absolutely no way short of violence in the streets that the US government… You will have Ted Cruz, you will have AOC talk about this. But this government will not respond to this because it’s in their interest to defend these funds.

 

PS: Tony, I’m gobsmacked. In just last month, we had an insurrection and impeachment and inauguration in the space of two weeks. Isn’t that like a big paradigm shift in the politics? Don’t you see any changes there?

 

TN: Here’s what I learned today and I’ll get to your point in just a second. There is a 97% correlation between the sale of guns and the price of Bitcoin in the U.S.. What does that tell us? It tells us there is an absolute lack of trust in institutions. People can’t trust law enforcement. They can’t trust politics. They can’t trust the central bank. Americans feel like they just can’t trust institutions. So they’re investing in Bitcoin and they’re buying guns. So there is a real frustration among Americans. They just absolutely don’t trust the government.

 

WSN: That’s an interesting point, Tony. But on the flip side, if I look at Biden’s administration. Let’s talk about his stimulus plans, because originally the target was a $1.9 trillion plan. But I think that’s probably likely to be scaled down, especially with the vaccination rollout. So what do your gut feel in terms of what the figure will be?

 

TN: The administration, unfortunately, has lost a lot of credibility because they two million or 20 million vaccines over the past week. They’ve come in saying that they had a better plan and then they’ve actually lost 20 million vaccines. This is supposed to be a Covid relief bill with more money for vaccines and more money to address Covid. But they can’t manage the resources they have today. People are really frustrated with that as this stupid $600 they’ve been promising for six months. Nobody even wants it now. People are so frustrated over this whole thing.

 

So will it be scaled back? Probably. You have Republicans in the Senate especially, who are being really stupid politically by pushing back on this. And you have Democrats who are pushing for stupid spending programs. Again, there is frustration. This is not just in Texas. This is across the country. Americans are so upset with government and so frustrated that they just want something passed and they want the least damage possible. They know it’s going to be a dumb bill. They know there’s going to be pork and they know there’s going to be corruption, but they want the least damage possible done with this.

 

WSN: But if I look at markets, it doesn’t seem like, you know, that that there’s any negativity or disappointment, right? Yeah. Because we are looking at, you know, the index also NASDAQ closed to an all time high. So are you saying that markets are reflecting this or, you know, there’s just too much optimism in terms of forward earnings?

 

TN: No, the markets are reflecting a bet on the central bank. They’re betting on the stimulus coming from the bill, passing through consumers and passing through businesses. And they’re betting on the the bailouts for different industries, on a weaker dollar, on a lot of things. That’s what they’re betting on. They’re not betting on earnings or on corporate health.

 

We suspect that the stimulus won’t be as strong as many had hoped and the central bank won’t be as accommodating as many hope and that there will be a pullback. We think there’s going to be something this quarter in terms of a pullback. But again, nobody is betting on companies or sectors.

 

WSN: All right. Thank you for your time. That was Tony Nash of Complete Intelligence, giving us his views on where global markets are heading and in particular on the U.S. government.

 

Some interesting points. Right Philip?

 

PS: I’m kind of lost for words for that. He really is pushing for this decade implosion of the once vaunted American institution.

 

WSN: He’s saying that there’s a lot of dissatisfaction with regards to the roll out of the stimulus plan. That it is very, very delayed. And people just like, hurry up, just sign the bill and  hand out those 600 U.S. dollar checks. The longer you wait after a while, people just don’t seem to care about it.

 

But when I look at the markets, I’m somewhat still conflicted because I’m not in total agreement with him. I think markets are pricing in vaccine optimism. And on the back of that, there will be some corporate earnings, especially when you come to the tech companies. So is the whole of America unhappy? Well, we do know from the way the vote, is a very divided nation.

Categories
Podcasts

What’s Supporting This Risk-On Market?

In this discussion with BFM 89.9, Tony Nash speaks about the Dow breaking past 30,000 and what’s supporting this risk-on marketing? Also discussed are the stuttering economic recovery in the US, Janet Yellen as Biden’s Treasury Secretary and what that could mean to the world economy, and whether oil has more legs to rally right now.

 

This podcast first appeared and originally published at https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/market-watch/whats-supporting-this-risk-on-market on November 26, 2020.

 

 

Show Notes

 

 

WSN: To help us make sense of where international markets are heading, we have with this Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence. Good morning, Tony. Now, it’s a bit confusing when it comes to markets because yesterday the Dow broke 30,000. But there’s a bit of correction this morning. So do you think this rally has legs? Is it a risk on or risk off for equities at the moment?

 

TN: Well, I think people really just took a breather today. I don’t necessarily think we’re seeing a fundamental shift or risk off environment. Equities are definitely a risk on environment, especially if you look at certain techs like Palantir. They were up almost 20 percent today. But, you know, when you look at things like the stimulus, we’ve had and the vaccine environment, you almost have a double accelerator environment where you’ve got this windfall of vaccines and all the same monetary and fiscal stimulus and potential new packages coming out. So there’s a lot of hope in these numbers. Valuations are really extended, assuming best case all around, which is what people do in situations like this. So it’s risk on at the moment, but we don’t necessarily expect this to be sustainable over a long period.

 

WSN: We look at the data that’s come out just on the eve of Thanksgiving, and it’s not positive at all because you’ve got higher unemployment claims and also weak consumer sentiment suggesting that the actual economic recovery may take longer than anticipated. So how do you reconcile all this with the actual market performance?

 

TN: What’s happening is we’ve had some state and local governments who are starting to shut things down again, worried that Covid will spread over Thanksgiving. And so, we get these legs to recovery coming and then the local, state and local bureaucrats who have absolutely no consequences to the decisions, they really kill economies that start coming back. And so Americans are really starting to push back and really starting to complain. So I think this is probably the last round of hard Covid lockdowns you’re seeing in different jurisdictions in the US because Americans are just fed up.

 

Maybe there may be something going into Christmas, but I doubt it. But I just don’t see much patience for this, because just as we have some sort of recovery coming, local governments come in and just suffocate any sort of recovery. So the jobless claims rising again. It’s more and more of the same where we have legs to recovery and then local governments come in and kill it.

 

I guess on a good note, orders for kind of good nondefense good rose almost one percent, which is pretty good news. It’s not terrible. They’re our collapsing consumer spending rose half a percent. So, again, it’s nothing to shout out, but at least we have growth there. So there is still positive news, but it’s slowing dramatically. And if these local government officials continue to suffocate local economies, we’re going to see things get much, much worse.

 

WSN: And what do you think about Janet Yellen as possible appointment as Treasury secretary? Do you think it’ll be good for markets.

 

TN: Markets like it. Some of the legislators like it. I think when she was the Fed secretary, she talked about fiscal stimulus not happening at the rate that it needed to happen. So if she’s a Treasury secretary, I think we can expect a big push for fiscal stimulus. We’ll see. My worry is, will the US become Japan with this kind of endless loop of debt being issued that then gets bought by the central bank? And there’s this circular economy that happens at the level that really doesn’t do much aside from a wash from the Treasury to the central bank. If that’s the case, then it could be problematic and it could be somewhat inflationary. But I just don’t think we’re going to see inflation here for at least a few years.

 

WSN: Meanwhile, does all look overbought to you at current prices? I mean, this morning, when I look at this Bloomberg screen is 45 U.S. dollars for the WTI delivery in January next year. Do you see any short term resistance? And what are the support levels we’re looking at?

 

TN: Right now, I think it’s because we’re seeing a lot of airline travel going into this Thanksgiving weekend. Airports here are packed. It’s the first time we’ve seen that in a long time since Covid. So people are a bit excited. I think jet fuel has been one of the main missing components for refined products in terms of demand. So I think there’s hope that maybe air travel is back, but I think that’s a bit early.

 

We really do expect some acceleration in the crude price in late December. And Jan, this is a bit early, but I don’t think this will last. Support prices, low 40s, 40 to something like that, which is right around where we’ve expected and where we’ve seen it. So things are a little bit ahead at the moment, but it’s not too far. We’re not seeing a six at all price, which we’re well ahead of demand.

Categories
QuickHit Visual (Videos)

QuickHit: Market unknowns and apprehensions

A returning guest joins us for another QuickHit talking about how the current market unknowns are affecting the economy, and what are these “unknowns” anyway? Independent trader Tracy Shuchart discusses with Tony Nash about the “buy-everything” market and why is it happening despite the worries and crashes of economies because of COVID. We’ve also looked at the crude oil market and whether it will recover or not and how? She also shares what she thinks about the regionalization and shifts in supply chain.

 

Tracy Shuchart is a trader portfolio manager and all-around high-profile, social media person on markets. We did the first two QuickHit episodes with her with the recent one on “Oil companies will either shut-in or cut back, layoffs not done yet“ last May.

 

 

This QuickHit episode was recorded on August 14, 2020.

 

The views and opinions expressed in this QuickHit episode are those of the guests and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Complete Intelligence. Any content provided by our guests are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any political party, religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything.

 

Show Notes

TN: It feels like the markets have taken a breather this week. Is that what you’re seeing and also what are we waiting for?

 

TS: You notice all this entire summer, actually, that it’s been a buy-everything market. Bonds are up, equities are up, gold’s up, crude oil’s up, across the board, everything was up. Commodities, equities, fixed income, and then just starting in August about a week, week and a half ago, we started seeing some of that error let out of those sales.

 

Equities are still grinding higher but gold futures reached 2,089 dollars, and then came off to 200 dollars really quickly. It has stalled out over the last couple of days.

 

Crude oil in general, this summer has been stuck in a range. So, I guess you could say OPEC did their job. They wanted to stabilize the oil market. They did that.

 

Then this week we’ve seen some of the air come out of bonds. So I think, right now, it was kind of buy-everything. We had all this government stimulus, we had central bank stimulus and now we’re at the point where the government stimulus is out. The extra unemployment, PPP loans, there’s no more checks things like that. And then we have the election come up. The markets are waiting to see what’s going to happen.

 

 

TN: And RobinHood closed their api. So, we don’t know what the Robinhood traders are doing anymore.

 

 

TS: Yeah, so it just seems like there’s a lot of things that are unknown. If you look at the vix curve structure you see the kink in that November area. So, the markets are forward looking at that as an unknown. So, these next couple months might be either going to be flat until we find out or it’s going to get really volatile.

 

 

TN: Right, the one that really told me that we are in a pause is when gold turned around. When we started to see gold turning around and we’ve seen it paused where it is now, that’s really what showed me that things have changed or things have at least slowed down. And so, are we waiting for clarity around stimulus? Because I don’t think it’s earnings or anything like that that we’re looking for. It really does, as you said, kind of a stimulus-driven market. Is that really the next thing that we’re looking for?

 

TS: I think it’s a combination of things. Fed purchases have curtailed a tiny bit. We still have an unknown about what’s going to happen and congress just adjourned for recess without a decision. So, we won’t find out what a decision is really probably until September. That leaves a whole unknown, especially, when you’re talking about that extra unemployment.

 

The big thing is the election because we don’t know what the market’s going to do. If there’s a Biden win, that will only be a sector rotation in my opinion, because of what their agenda is. Everybody’s just very apprehensive right now. They are pulling back on, their involvement in the market being that there are a lot of big unknown factors out there right now.

 

TN: It’s really one of the only recessions where incomes have actually grown during the recession, which is weird. We’ve seen retail sales and industrial production in recent months come in and they’re actually okay. It seems like the breaks are put on that with stimulus stopped as well. The question really about being stagnant or rising? Or is there a possibility that we tip over and start to decline if stimulus isn’t forthcoming by the end of August or early September?

 

TS: That’s a possibility that we see a pullback in the markets absolutely. I don’t think you’re going to see anything, like we saw obviously back in February. But I could definitely see a market pull back just on people’s apprehensions of the unknown.

 

TN: As you mentioned OPEC and that crude oil has settled and it’s been horizontal for the past couple months. What would move that either way? Do you see airlines coming back online? Do you see major events happening that would really push the oil price up? Or do you think we’re just also in a waiting pattern there?

 

TS: We’re in a waiting pattern. But from what I’m seeing, the fundamentals are improving. Even though people don’t really want to see that. I look at driving patterns not only in the States but driving patterns in the world. I look at airlines and things of that nature and we are seeing a slight improvement. Everybody’s looking for a big crash in oil prices again but I don’t foresee that at this point. Unless, obviously, something fundamental changes, like the whole world goes on a lockdown again or some unforeseen event happens. But right now, the crude oil market looks pretty strong. We’re still over supply but we’re working off that oversupply. Especially going forward into 2021, when that supply really starts to be worked off, then we have a Capex problem. We’re gonna have a supply problem. I can forsee the oil prices even going higher into next year. But right now, I would say we’re stable to drift higher at to the end of the year. We are hitting that soft season. But again, I don’t see the oil market really pulling back that much at this point.

 

TN: Is the back-to-school factored into your expectation of rising oil prices or would that accelerate it?

 

TS: I believe that people will be apprehensive to send their kids on a school bus. So they’ll probably be driving them to school. That’s actually oil demand positive for me.

TN: Our view is to see oil grind higher into the end of the year. As of August 1st, that was our view as well. I’m also curious about your views on the dollar. Do you see any dramatic movements either way in the dollar or are we in the low 90s for the next few months?

 

TS: The market is so oversold at this point and everyone is so leaning bearish. I wouldn’t be surprised in he next couple of months if prices don’t go lower that people start to unwind those short trades and we could see not a huge spike in the dollar. But just a general unwind of that shortness.

 

TN: Great, okay, is there anything out there that you’re seeing that’s really interesting that we should know about? It’s late summer. People are tired. They’re not really all into work. Is there anything that you’re looking at that we’re not really paying attention to?

 

TS: The lumber market. I sent out a few tweets about that. I think that’s definitely something to watch because the housing market is doing better than anticipated. However, we don’t need things like extra ten twenty thousand dollars added on housing costs for new home builds. So, that’ll put a very big strain on the market and on home builders. So that’s definitely something to watch at this point.

TN: I noticed if you go to home depot, the lumber section is empty. That’s not where home builders go, but that’s what I see as a consumer is. It’s just empty. There look to be seriously obviously. There’s demand pulled but there really seems to be some sort of supply issue there as well.

 

TS: Yeah, there’s a supply issue. A lot of the mills have been closed like they’ve been closing for the last couple of years because the demand hasn’t really been that high, well at least in British Columbia. But with this new surge, I’m hearing that tons of mills are back up and running shifts  24/7 now. Even smaller mills that you used to do little to no business are back up and running. So, I think that looking forward October, November, we should see some more supplies.

 

 

 

TN: What we’ve seen since COVID from toilet paper to meat processing to lumber is real stress put on supply chains. And from your perspective as a portfolio manager and a trader, do times like this make you concerned about the stability of the U.S. economy or do these tests make you feel like the people participating in that economy are making their supply chains more resilient? Do you think people are actually investing to make those things more resilient or do you think they’re just getting through and they’ll forget about it within a few months?

 

TS: No, we are seeing some improvement on supply chains and moving forward. There are companies that are diversifying out of China. It’s in supply chains closer to the U.S., Mexico, Latin America. This particular incident, this COVID really made people rethink and reassess things and I think we are seeing changes. It’s not easy to move supply chains obviously, right? So, it’s just going to take some time but I definitely see in the markets where companies are changing.

Categories
Visual (Videos)

World economy, industries changing amid COVID-19

 

The world faces an unprecedented economic crisis as shops and businesses, factories and entire communities have been put under lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. Governments are doing their best to cushion the blow and keep their economies intact, but many people say things won’t be going back to normal… even when this pandemic is over. According to them we are in a “new normal.” To see how economies and industries across the world are already shifting to this new reality, we connect with Dr. Larry Samuelson, Professor of Economics at Yale University, Tony NASH, CEO and Founder of Complete Intelligence, and Dr. Graham Ong-Webb who joins us from Singapore’s Nanyang University.

 

Interview Notes

 

AN: My first question to Dr. Samuelson, which industries do you think will struggle to recover after this pandemic and even despite the huge sums of money being poured into them right now to try and keep them afloat?

 

LS: The huge sums of money are designed to get the industries through this initial period when much of the world is locked down and firms’ whole industries have no obvious or no steady source of revenue. Once we are past that, hopefully we see some opening of economies soon, we still have a recession on our hands. And at that point I would say that consumer confidence is the key thing to monitor it’s difficult to recover that under an ordinary recession. Now we’re gonna have to recover that in the midst of still dealing with the coronavirus.

 

We won’t have the virus behind us until we have a vaccine, which looks like it’s perhaps a year off and so we’re gonna have to try to reopen our economies where people are still worrying about the virus. So now we can ask about industries the ones that will fare best are those that people can reasonably, safely interact with. We expect retail some education to fare better than say mass sporting events and confine travel in that respect.

 

Can also look at which industries represent activities, purchase is that people ordinarily do that they have deferred and which are discretionary. The deferred ones we might expect to come back fairly quickly. As a frivolous example think of all the haircuts people are going to need when they come out of lockdown. Things like automobile purchases durables home maintenance might be in the same category. More discretionary items like travel are going to take a longer time to come back.

 

 

AN: So what you’re saying is that recovery will really depend on consumer sentiment and it looks like the sort of high-touch industries where you know and where it involves travel or social contacts those are going to be a bit slower to recover? Well Dr. Webb the, European Union they’ve agreed on a 500 billion dollar stimulus plan to protect workers businesses and their Nations in light of this pandemic but they haven’t been able to agree on issuing debt to raise long-term financing for the region what do you
make of this still is it really enough for the region?

 

OW: Well it appears to be clearly insufficient for for the requirements of what stands to be a 19 trillion dollar economy. We think about the European Union. 27 countries as a collective this is second largest economy you know in PPP terms after China. And so you know the amount of – a billion dollars pales in comparison to what other national economies are injecting in terms of stimulus packages to stave off the risk of a severe economic crippling, mass layoffs and so forth.

 

So I think the ECB was right to to campaign for about 1.5 trillion dollars and clearly we’ve ended up with 500 billion dollars and that’s not going to be near enough to what the region needs. But nevertheless, yes, there is this big issue in the backdrop of who’s gonna finance or finance all of this. And this is clearly a follow-on discussion from the one we had last week about the global debt crisis right. So no basic were looking at trade-offs here, which trade-off are we willing to live with, the one where we deal with or crisis now in terms of mass unemployment, crippling economies, whether we deal with a lengthy debt crisis down the road, you know, sort of alleviating the pain today.

 

So I think this is an ongoing discussion but clearly the $500 package is a compromise, a severe one. Southern European states have compromised themselves. They’d rather get something rather than nothing. But clearly it’s insufficient in terms of what’s already percolating in terms of small and medium enterprises folding up as we speak, people losing their jobs because of the slump in demand are all around for range of services and inability for those services to to actually meet consumer needs because of the of the lockdown.

 

 

AN: So it looks like there may be more coming out of the EU as this pandemic progresses and the economies continue to be hurt. Well Dr. Nash, here in East Asia China has actually restarted its economy factories are back online and lockdowns on cities even Wuhan they’ve been east. But with the rest of the world they closed for business. Many say that China is actually in for a second supply shock. What’s your your take on this?

 

TN: Sure. Our biggest worry about China, well, we have a number of them but we’re actually worried about the fall in manufacturing. The industrial production collapse in China that we see coming starting in, say, April and then going into third quarter should be unfortunately pretty damaging to China’s economy. We expect to see deflation starting in April, May in China. It’s not like 10 or 20 percent. It’s kind of half a percent, but still once you start to dip your toe into deflation, it can be pretty dangerous, so starting and then stopping.

 

The thing that we have to remember with all of these economies is that these are government-mandated shutdowns of the economies. These are not market failures. And so the EU issues 500 billion dollars and euros for a fiscal plan. It’s not the small companies, even the large companies’ fault that this is happening. So the governments have and will continue to push money into the economy because they know that this is their fault. It’s their responsibility. The companies aren’t failing. It’s the government that’s failed the companies by not having a plan and not having the resources in place to manage this.

 

 

AN: So that’s no need for such huge pessimism, I suppose. So you think that as long as the government’s take the right actions and the full might I mean that the second supply shock or another sort of sort of impact might not be as big. Well Dr. Samuelson some say that China could employ what some call it a trap diplomacy either by seizing other country’s assets or forgiving that to boost its soft power if it does employ this kind of tactic then could we see the world order actually change?

 

LS: We have to remember that the question of debt-trap diplomacy was here well before the pandemic. Critics of China have been concerned about this for some time. I don’t have a good idea. It’s very hard to say whether the pandemic is going to exacerbate. The concerns people have about debt-trap diplomacy, it might if it puts other countries that China is dealing with in a particularly adverse position. But it might not. It’s having an effect on China. That may make things more difficult for them.

 

I think more important is to remember that when we talk about debt trap diplomacy, we tend to think of international trade of economic relations between countries as a competitive or an antagonistic activity, where the most important thing to keep in mind is that international trade is at its heart a cooperative activity. We engage in it because countries on both sides gain from international trade.

 

As China invests in other countries, as it deals in other countries, it acquires some influence in those countries and some people are worried about that. That’s where the term debt trap diplomacy comes from. But it also becomes linked to those countries and has an interest in those countries and that creates a force going the other way. I think on balance it’s important to remember that there are some real gains to our world economy.

 

Some risk, some supply chain risks, that we have seen. Some political risks that some people worry about. But on that I think there are real gains from having the International economy linked together. We see these gains in terms of our economic well-being. I think we see these gains in terms of our political well-being as well. Countries, as they trade, as they deal with one another, tend to have common interests that in the long run are good for all of us.

 

 

AN: Well, so we really need to see more cooperation and continuous trade between nations especially in times of economic crises. Well Dr. Ron Webb, how do you expect this tug of war between the US and China to play out during this pandemic, especially as their bilateral relations worsen because of the COVID-19 pandemic?

 

OW: Well, you know the future is contingent clearly. But I think in terms of the current trajectory, it looks like this tug of war, this ongoing bilateral trade war between these two economic juggernauts, will continue unabated I mean from the recent news reports of President Trump’s speeches and his articulations on the issue, it’s quite clear that the US administration is doubling down on its protectionist measures against not only China but also even the European Union and also Mexico.

 

So I think the COVID-19 challenge which is having an impact of across various domains including economics and technology and so forth will continue without much foreseeable change. I think this effects you know the global economy. It has been even pre COVID, but I think it’s not helping the situation whatsoever in the current climate.

 

 

AN: Right. So, we expect these technological sort of competition and the sort of trade disputes that we’ve seen in the past, they’re not just going to stop short because of this pandemic that’s going on. They’re going to continue. Nevertheless, well just before we go,  Mr. Nash, some say that there could be a rebound in the latter half of the year. When do you think the worst of this pandemic
will be over on the economy?

 

TN: Yeah, I think it really depends. I think it depends on a country’s ability to issue a fiscal stimulus. I think it depends on the concentration of manufacturing of those economies, and I think it depends on let’s say workforce flexibility. So, with those, I think China is not in a great position. I think China is going to have a very rough year ahead. The official data may not report it, but we envision a very rough year ahead for China.

 

We think Europe will have a rough third and fourth quarter. Of course, late in the fourth quarter, we see Europe starting to come out of this. But both of those are constrained because they don’t have a U.S. dollar basis to issue fiscal stimulus. Their companies have U.S. dollar debt and their countries are having to borrow US dollars into their Treasuries in order to keep trade and other things going. So they have real problems.

 

The US has already issued 2.2 trillion fiscal stimuli plus a lot more from the Fed. And so, the US has had the ability to stimulate the economy. It hasn’t really had traction yet. But of the three kinds of general regions, what we’re seeing is the US, although they’re all very difficult situations on a relative basis, we see the US doing much, much better because of the US’s ability to issue fiscal stimulus and to play monetary policy with the US dollar. So the US dollar is a huge asset for the US.

 

The large millennial bracket is a huge asset for the US. It’s a workforce that’s actually contributing to the overall dependency ratio and then the ability for US companies to pull their manufacturing back to North America, this is not absolute it doesn’t mean a hundred percent, but some manufacturing will certainly be diverted to Mexico for a number of reasons, and we see that taking catching pace in, say, q3 and q4. And that allows the US to do more value-added activities through the course of recovery.

 

AN: Right. Well, each region is going to have its own challenges and an unprecedented pandemic really does bring unprecedented complexities when it comes to recovery. Well I’m afraid that’s all we have time for today it’s been a very great discussion.