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The Federal Reserve Was Slow To React But Inflation Is Real This Time

This podcast was originally published at https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/market-watch/us-fed-reserve-inflation-rate-down-slowing-car-homes-sales

All eyes will be on the US CPI data as it gives us an indication of the quantum and pace of rate hikes. But is the Federal Reserve too slow to see if inflation is coming down when there is anecdotal evidence of slowing car and home sales? Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence tells us.

Transcript

BFM

This is a podcast from BFM 89.9. The Business Station BFM 89 Nine. Good morning. You are listening to the Morning Run. I’m Shazana Mokhtar with Wong Shou Ning and Chong Tjen San. 07:00 a.m on Thursday the 13 October. Let’s kickstart the morning with a recap on how global markets closed yesterday.

BFM

Looking at US markets, all three key indices close in the red S&P 500, down zero 3%. The Dow and Nasdaq down zero 0.1%. And I think that the S&P has been down for six consecutive days already. Moving to Asian markets, and the Nikkei down marginally 0.02%. Hang Seng down 0.8%. The Shanghai Composite Index back the trend. It’s up 1.5%. Straights Times Index down 0.7%. And our very own FBM KLCI is down 0.5%.

BFM

So for some thoughts on where international markets are heading, we have on the line with us Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence. Tony, good morning. Thanks as always for joining us. Now, US CPI data is due out on Friday. What are your expectations for that figure? And how much of this do you think will determine the quantum of the next Fed rate hike?

TN

Everything rests on CPI right now. So I think if it comes in line or higher than expected, it’s just bad news for markets for the next few days. So people are hoping for a lower number because it would provide some relief and some proof that inflation has maybe peaked or is at least slowing down. I think it’s possible that we have it come in slightly under, but given the PPI reading that came today, it’s not a good a sign. So we may see CPI continue to rise in tomorrow’s trading day in the US.

BFM

Okay, Tony, we have a history of the Fed being late to the game, right, when it came to inflation. They kept saying “transitory, transitory,” and we know it wasn’t transitory at all. Do you think that they are also late to the game in recognizing that inflation has been brought under control? Because when I look at some of the data points, one of which is used car sales, that’s dropping. New car sales are also dropping. House sales, home sales are also dropping. Is it possible that inflation is being overstated?

TN

Well, you’re 100% right on the Fed being late to the game, both to recognize inflation and to impact it. The problem that we’re seeing with, say, used cars is, although the unit volume is slowing, the unit price is still rising for, say, used cars, for eating out, for these sorts of things. There’s still been upward pressure on these because of the factor input costs and supply chains and labor and others. So it does feel in the US like things have not that prices have gone back down, but that the rate of rise has slowed. That’s what it feels like at the consumer level, except for petrol, gasoline, which has started to rise again over the past week.

BFM

Let’s take a look over at the UK, where George Bailey, the Bank of England Governor, said that the BoE would end support for UK Gilts by the end of this week. What does this mean for the Pound specifically and other sterling-denominated UK assets like equities?

TN

Oh gosh, we’re likely to see more devaluation of the Pound. There’ll be pressure on the Pound. Well, maybe not devaluation, but depreciation of the Pound. UK pension funds and other guiltholders will likely have to sell assets if the BoE is stopping their intervention in that market. They’re likely to likely to see downward pressure on those prices. So holders of those assets, like big pension funds, will have to use other assets to pay for their collateral for those investments. So it’s going to be ugly all around once the BoE stops because the market for guilt is so weak.

TN

And we’ve seen for the Bank of Japan, we’ve seen for the Fed, for different auctions, different government debt auctions, there have been zero takers for government debt auction. And that tells me they’re not paying enough. The interest rates for that debt has to rise because people feel like inflation and interest rates are going to rise. So these governments need to offer their debt out at a higher rate so that people can make a profit with it, given the inflation environment.

BFM

And Tony moving on to China with a Party Congress meeting happening very soon, and with Xi Jinping set to win an unpresented term, what economic implications would that have for China? And with growth slowing down across the world, how will they aim to achieve the goal of common prosperity?

TN

Yeah, Common Prosperity as a definition can be really taken as raising people up, or it can be taken as pushing kind of those achievers down. Okay. And if you look at China’s history in the late 50’s and the 60’s, as you know, Mao Zedong really pushed those achievers down through the great famine and all this other stuff. So my fear is that as Xi Jinping has consolidated his power, he’s going to start well, he’s already started a couple of years ago, pushing some of those economic overachievers down like Jack Ma and other people.

TN

So I really do worry coming out of this Party Congress that we get a much more restrictive Chinese economy. We’ve already seen foreign investor sentiment sour on China, and we’ve already seen with code lockdowns, with supply chain lockdowns and other things, there has been a functionally more restrictive environment and with sentiment souring as well.

TN

I’m not optimistic, at least in the short term. The Chinese government, whether it’s Xi Jinping or other elements of the Chinese government, they’re going to have to do something to reassure the world that they are a good faith partner in global supply chains and for manufacturing. It’s not going to make them happy to do that. But if they want to continue growing at the rates they have grown, they’re going to have to do that.

TN

So when I say I’m not optimistic about China, I’m not saying China is going to crash. I’m saying I think they’re going to have some pretty mediocre growth rates in the coming years because of the economic environment, regulatory environment and market environment that they’ve cultivated of late.

BFM

OK, Tony, I want to stay in Asia and I want to look specifically at Japan because the Yen weakened to a fresh two-decade low, hitting 146 to the US dollar. What do we make of this? Is this really on the back of Corona vowing to maintain its very accommodative monetary policy?

TN

Well, they have a choice. They can either support the yen or they can buy government bonds. And they’ve continued buying their bonds. So I think they’ve made a choice not to support the currency. And with the strong US dollar position and Janet Yellen made some comments today saying, again, saying that it’s really not the US’s responsibility to maintain the currencies, economies of other parts of the world. It wasn’t those exact words, but it was similar. That will likely push the dollar even stronger and we’re likely to see even more depreciation of the Japanese yen.

TN

So there is a lot of pressure on Japan right now, and the Bank of Japan really has some decisions to make about how they’re going to approach that. Maybe they’re okay with depreciating their currency, but it will fundamentally change things like their imports of energy. They’re very dependent on imported energy. They’re very dependent on imported, say, raw materials like metals for their manufacturing. So this really changes their approach to managing those imports.

BFM

Tony, thanks very much for speaking to us this morning. That was Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, giving us his take on some of the trends that he sees moving markets in the days and weeks ahead.

BFM

Yeah, I like his comments on the yen. Right. At what point does it then become really painful for the Japanese economy? Net energy imported, clearly LNG from Malaysia is one of the key imports. What does this then mean for inflation? But it’s one country where inflation has been ultra low, almost as low as ours, I think barely 2-3% for them. But for them it’s a bit of a shocker because they’ve been in a deflationary period for more than ten years.

BFM

Yeah, and his comments on China, I think he said that growth would likely be slow over the next couple of years, and I guess Xi Jinping and China will unlikely dial back on its Zero Covid policy next week. It looks very unlikely at this point.

BFM

I mean, everyone’s hoping to see some kind of announcement to that vein. But again, lots of things to look out for in the weeks ahead.

BFM

We just heard headlines coming out Shanghai, parts of it under even more lockdown.

BFM

Well, very quickly, let’s take a look at some good news. I guess that’s coming out of Australia. We have contest airways. They said their first half year profit will jump to as much as 1.3 billion Australian dollars as travel demand accelerates and the airline stabilizes operations after a prolonged and bruising period of cancelations and delays. This ends a streak of five consecutive half yearly losses totalling 7 billion Australian dollars.

BFM

It said that the frequency of scrap flights, late departures and loss backs are all improving. CEO Alan Joyce said it’s been really challenging time for the national carrier, but the announcement shows that how far the airline has actually improved, and they’ve seen big improvements in their operational performance and acceleration in financial performance as well. And this takes some pressure off Joyce.

BFM

Well, if I look at the street, they like this stock. Twelve buys, three holes. One sell. Contest at close was $5 and 17 Australian cents. Tucker price, 653.

BFM

All right, 718 in the morning. We’re heading into some messages. Stay tuned. BFM 89 Nine you have been listening.

BFM

To a podcast from BFM 89 Nine, the business station. For more stories of the same kind, download the VSM app.

Categories
Podcasts

US Dollar Strength The New Excuse Of Weak Corporate Earnings

With stronger inflation data suggesting that the Federal Reserve will continue with their hawkish stance, what then does this mean for markets? And will inflation be exacerbated by the potential rail strike. Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence tells us whilst diving into the impact of a strong greenback.

Produced by: Michael Gong

Presented by: Wong Shou Ning, Shazana Mokhtar

Transcript

BFM

Good morning. You are listening to the Morning Run. 7:06 am. On Thursday, the 15 September. I’m Shazana Mokhtar with Wong Shou Ning. In half an hour we’re going to be speaking to criminal lawyer Srikant Pillay on the criminal defamation charges filed against the edge. But as we always do, let’s kick start the morning with the recap on how global markets closed yesterday.

BFM

It’s the tale of two halves because the US markets all closed up in the green. The Dow was up 0.1%, S&P500 up 0.3%, and Nasdaq was up 0.7%. Albeit actually it was a very choppy trading session with US stocks actually sometimes swinging violently between gains and losses throughout the day. Meanwhile, in Asia, it all closed in the red. Nikkei was down 2%, Hang Seng down two 5%, Shanghai was down 0.8%. Straight Times Index in Singapore down 1%, while our very own FBMKLCI was down 1.3%.

BFM

So first, some thoughts on where international markets are headed. We have on the line with us Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence. Tony, good morning. Thanks as always for joining us. Now, we saw equities plunged this week in response to worries over US CPI numbers. But if we take a closer look at the numbers itself, headline inflation only rose about a .1% month over month, which doesn’t seem like a lot. Do you think markets are over reacting and making much ado about nothing?

TN

Well, kind of. But what’s really happened is it’s about expectations for the terminal rate, which is basically the terminal rate is when does the Fed have to stop hiking at what rate? Right? So the terminal rate expectations change from 4% to about 4.3%. And with that expectation, that means that the Fed would have to hike more and maybe hike faster. So investors were reacting to that because consensus had become 75 basis point hike in September, then two more 50s before the end of the year, and then maybe a 25 and boom, we’re at the terminal rate. But with a rise in the terminal rate, we could have a 75 in Sep, 75 in October, and then who knows after that if inflation doesn’t slow down. Now, what I see and what you mentioned is a zero 1% rise month on month in August. That tells me that the rate of rise of inflation is slowing. So on a year on year basis it still looks bad, but the rate of rise of inflation is slowing. That’s good news. Okay, let’s see what happens. And we could have some positive unexpected things like, let’s say for example, the Russia Ukraine war ends or something like that, right?

TN

But what I’m expecting are things like a continued deceleration of inflation. It doesn’t mean we’re going back to pre 2020 pricing levels, it just means that the rate of inflation is slowing and spenders get used to paying higher prices over time.

BFM

So, Tony, what then is your feel in terms of what the Fed will do at their meeting next week? Are you expecting a 75 basis point hike? I even hear some houses saying a 100 basis point hike.

TN

Yeah. So I think there’s a 20% to 30% likelihood of 100 basis point hike. And everyone loves to kind of freak out about the Fed. So it’s possible that we have 100 basis point hike. I think what they’ll end up doing is hiking 75 and they’ll try to sound really bearish about things or sorry, not bearish, really hawkish about things. That’s what I meant to say. So they’ll hike 75. They’ll basically say, if you don’t slow down, we’re going to hike more, and then there’ll be another 75 where we hit expected or where the market generally hit expected at 50 for the next meeting.

BFM

Two year US treasury yields continue to spike, worsening the inversion that already existed prior to this. In what time frame can we expect to see some equilibrium return to fixed income markets?

TN

Yeah, I think that’s largely happening because of uncertainty about inflation expectations. I think there had been a hope that inflation would moderate more on a year on year basis in August, which it didn’t. And so that added some uncertainty into the mix. And so you’re seeing those short yield spike based on that uncertainty. And so when we see more certainty, a lot of this stuff really started to rise in October, November of ’21. Okay. And so as we get into those months, what we expect to see are some base effects. So we already started to see things rise in October, November of ’21. As we get to October, November of ’22, we will have already started getting at a higher pricing level in Q4 of ’21 anyway. So we expect to see the observed inflation slow as we get to those months and we’ll see a little bit more predictability, a little bit less uncertainty about inflation.

BFM

Tony, I want to pick your brain on this talk of a potential rail strike in the US. How detrimental will it be to the economy? Or is it just a blip?

TN

No, everyone goes back to the supply chain bottlenecks that we saw, and of course the union is playing on those fears and the consumers are worried about more supply chain bottleneck. Is it a problem? Yes, it’s a big problem. So I don’t think anything you’re seeing in media at this point is kind of too shrill. It could be really bad. And so this stuff will come down there’s brinksmanship it’ll come down to the last minute and will likely, I’m sure it will be solved somehow. Right. And again, that’s a secondary impact of inflation. Right. So we’ve seen things rise. Dock workers are saying we’re not being paid enough. And then it’s that wage price spiral that you hear about. So wages rise. I know in Asia people are a lot more aware of this than people in the US are. Where we typically have say, one or 2% inflation, you don’t really see a wage price spiral here. I think you see it in spurts in Asia a lot more frequently than we see it here in the US. So yes, it’s a real problem. Yes, they’ll get their raise or a significant portion of it.

TN

It could be ugly until it’s settled, but I don’t expect it to be a protracted issue. Sorry. The other thing I’m not to think about is we’re starting to enter kind of the pre holiday import period. So the guys who are negotiating against the dock workers know that if this goes out a month or two months it’s going to hurt all that stuff on the shelf at Walmart, all that stuff on the shelf and all the stores, Amazon, all those guys.

BFM

Yeah. So some people might not get their Christmas presents on time. Right. But do you think the other headwind is the US dollar strength, which it has come down slightly last night, but even if we look at the Bloomberg Dollar spot Index on a year to date basis, it’s 11% and Oracle used that as an excuse to explain why earnings were a bit soft. How much more of these announcements are we going to see from US corporate?

TN

US dollar is going to be the Pinata. It’s going to get the bashing this quarter and earnings reports, everybody is going to blame weak earnings on the US. Dollar. Everybody. So it’s 11% year to date. So people are going to say if they missed by 11%, they’re going to go it’s the dollar is fault, regardless of what operational issues they have, regardless of what inventory issues they have, they’re going to blame it on the dollar. Wall street analysts know better, but they’re going to accept that as an excuse and that’s just the game that everyone’s going to play this quarter.

BFM

Tony, thanks very much for speaking with us this morning. That was Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, talking to us about some of the trends that he sees moving markets in the days and weeks ahead. I really like the comment he made about the US. Dollar becoming the Pinata in next season’s quarterly report.

BFM

I’m going to bang it, try to hit it to get all the sweets out.

BFM

Right. We could probably do a game like a bingo game how many corporates mentioned US dollar as the reason for faltering earnings perhaps something to look for.

BFM

I mean even in Malaysia we’ve got corporates doing that all the time.

BFM

Right.

BFM

And it’s a non cash item but clearly an excuse. So we’ll be watching this space, lots of headwinds. I think the other news coming out of Asia, which is interesting, is actually and this is of course according to people familiar with the matter as opposed to unfamiliar with the matter, SoftBank Group founder Masayososhi’s Son has revived discussions of setting up a third vision fund. And what’s ironic about it is because just a few weeks ago, he apologized for the disappointing performance of his first two funds.

BFM

You know how they say there’s that saying goes, insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results. I wonder if that’s what this third vision fund is in a way. If the first two haven’t really performed, is setting up a third fund really the answer?

BFM

But it’s amazing. People do give him cash, right? It’s not like he doesn’t get new injections of cash all the time.

BFM

It reminds me very much of Adam Newman, actually the founder of WeWork. And even though he had such an infamous fall from grace, he is back in the corporate scene now with a new venture and people still continue to give him money. So go figure. Some people are just really good at getting cash.

BFM

Selling themselves in the brand.

BFM

7:16 in the morning, we’re heading into some messages and when we come back, we are going to be taking a look at the proposal to expand the parliamentary seat allocation for Sabah and Sarawa. Stay tuned for that conversation. BFM 89 nine you have been listening to a podcast from BFM 89 nine, the business station. For more stories of the same kind, download the VFM up.