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Weekly Outlook: Nov 3, 2025

Weekly Outlook: Nov 3, 2025

The key takeaway this week is the market’s “pro-trade” rally, unlocked by a constructive week of diplomacy. The successful Trump-Xi and Trump-Takaichi meetings are signaling a new phase of global growth, which is fueling a rally in Japanese equities. This new trade is also increasing the demand for US Dollars to facilitate it, strengthening the DXY.

The Dollar Rises on Pro-Trade Demand

The CI Markets platform forecasts a move higher for the US Dollar Index (DXY). This is not a “risk-off” signal, but a “pro-trade” one. A detente between the US and its large trading partners (China and Japan) is set to increase global trade. As that trade is primarily settled in dollars, we are seeing an increased demand for the currency, pushing its value higher.

Japanese Equities Rally on Alliance

The platform forecasts a move higher for Japan’s Nikkei 225 index (N225). This is a direct, positive reaction to the successful Trump-Takaichi meeting. The strengthening of the US-Japan alliance and new agreements on economic security are being seen as a major tailwind for the Japanese economy, causing global investors to buy Japanese stocks.

Oil Rises on Supply Shock

CI Markets also forecasts a move higher for crude oil (CL=F). This trend is running counter to the main pro-trade narrative and is driven by a separate, supply-side force. The noose is tightening on Russian crude supplies as US sanctions begin to stick, pulling barrels off the market and creating an energy squeeze even as the global growth story improves.

Conclusion

The market is in a “pro-trade” rally, but it must also contend with an unrelated energy shock. The constructive geopolitical meetings are fueling optimism, which is seen in the rising Nikkei 225. This new trade activity is, in turn, driving up demand for the US Dollar. The wildcard remains crude oil, which is rising on its own supply-side factors and adding a complicated inflationary pressure to the new growth story.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Weekly Outlook: Oct 27, 2025

Weekly Outlook: October 27, 2025

The key takeaway this week is the market’s full-throated “risk-on” rally, ignited by a cooler-than-expected inflation report. This has solidified expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, sending tech stocks soaring and bond yields falling. The rally is supported by both this Fed tailwind and surprisingly strong corporate earnings.

Tech Stocks Lead the Charge

The CI Markets platform forecasts a positive trend for the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (NDX). This sector is the primary beneficiary of the new interest rate outlook, as lower rates boost the valuations of growth stocks. With the market surging into the close on Friday and a heavy slate of major tech earnings this week, all eyes are on the NDX to lead the market higher.

Fundamental Strength in the “Real Economy”

This rally is not just about rate-sensitive tech. The CI Markets platform also forecasts a positive trend for Ford (F), which soared over 12% on Friday after posting strong earnings. This shows that the rally is also being driven by fundamental corporate strength. Investor confidence in the health of the U.S. consumer and manufacturing sector is clearly growing, providing a solid foundation for the market’s new highs.

The Bond Market Provides the Fuel

CI Markets forecasts a move lower for the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX). This is the underlying engine for the entire equity rally. The bond market’s decisive reaction to last week’s tame inflation data—pushing yields down—is the mechanism that makes stocks more attractive. This forecast confirms the market’s strong conviction that the Fed has a clear path to cut rates.

Conclusion

The Federal Reserve has effectively given investors a green light. The alignment of falling bond yields (TNX), a surging tech sector (NDX), and fundamental strength in the real economy (F) creates a powerful bullish narrative. The market is no longer pricing in fear; it is actively pricing in a new cycle of growth, backed by both strong corporate performance and expected monetary easing.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Weekly Outlook: September 29, 2025

Weekly Outlook: September 29, 2025

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The key takeaway this week is that the market is once again grappling with the problem of persistent inflation. After a brief rally on hopes of a dovish Fed, last week’s economic data forced a reality check. The resulting price action in crude oil, bonds, and energy stocks suggests investors are now repositioning for an environment where inflation and interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously hoped.

Crude Oil signals Renewed Inflationary Pressure

The CI Markets platform forecasts a move higher for crude oil this week. After a period of consolidation, oil appears to be breaking higher, driven by resilient demand data and ongoing geopolitical supply risks. As a primary input cost for the global economy and a key component of inflation, a rally in crude oil is a direct signal that price pressures are building again in the system.

The Bond Market Prices in a Harsher Reality

The 10-year Treasury yield is also forecast for a move higher. This is the bond market’s direct reaction to the sticky inflation data from last week, which has dampened expectations for near-term interest rate cuts. A rising yield shows that investors are selling bonds, demanding higher compensation for holding them as they anticipate that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates higher for longer to combat this persistent inflation.

Energy Stocks Become the New Market Leaders

Confirming the signals from both oil and bonds, the CI Markets platform forecasts an upward trend for the energy sector. This shows that equity investors are actively buying into the “higher for longer” inflation theme. The rotation of capital into the one sector that directly benefits from rising energy prices is a clear signal that the market’s leadership is shifting to reflect a new, more inflationary reality.

Conclusion

The market’s focus has snapped back to the reality of persistent inflation. The concurrent moves higher in crude oil, bond yields, and energy stocks all point to the same conclusion: investors are no longer pricing in a swift return to a low-inflation environment. Instead, they are actively repositioning their portfolios for a world in which energy prices and interest rates remain elevated, creating a challenging new environment for the broader market.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Weekly Outlook: September 22, 2025

Weekly Outlook: September 22, 2025

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The key takeaway this week is the test of the market’s conviction. While the Federal Reserve’s dovish rate cut provided a powerful bullish catalyst, a rally that faded into Friday’s close suggests investor hesitation. The week ahead will reveal if the market can overcome this consolidation and build sustained momentum on the new, more favorable interest rate environment.

A Test for the Tech-Led Rally

The Fed’s rate cut is a massive tailwind for the tech-heavy NASDAQ. However, a weak close on Friday after an initial surge suggests some investors were quick to take profits. This sets up a crucial test for the week ahead: can the market look past the short-term consolidation and build on the fundamental support of lower rates? The CI Markets platform’s strong positive forecast suggests that it can, and that the path of least resistance for tech is now higher.

High-Growth Stocks in the Spotlight

As a high-beta leader in the AI space, NVIDIA is at the epicenter of this test. A dovish Fed is a green light for investors to chase the most powerful growth stories, and few are as compelling as the AI narrative. The CI Markets platform’s strong upward forecast indicates that despite any market-wide profit-taking on Friday, the powerful AI theme, now supercharged by lower rate expectations, is expected to attract significant new capital and reassert its leadership.

Broad Market Strength Provides a Foundation

The positive forecast for the S&P 500 is critical because it confirms the rally is not just a speculative tech phenomenon. It shows that investors believe the Fed’s dovish turn is a positive for the entire economy, reducing recession fears and supporting corporate earnings across the board. The strength in the broad market suggests the rally has a solid foundation and is not just built on a handful of high-flying tech names.

Conclusion

The Federal Reserve has provided the fuel for a significant market rally. The immediate hesitation seen late Friday, however, means the rally’s durability is now being tested. The positive forecasts for both the broad market and its technology leaders suggest that after a brief consolidation, the market has the fundamental support it needs to overcome this caution and continue its upward trend.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Audio and Podcasts

US Equity Rally Hinges On Fed Rate Cut

Fed rate cut in September?
Fed rate cut in September?

US Equity Rally Hinges On Fed Rate Cut

https://www.bfm.my/content/podcast/us-equity-rally-hinges-on-fed-rate-cut

US equity valuations may appear stretched, but the rally could still have room to run depending on how many times the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Tony Nash, CEO of Complete Intelligence, noted that a 25-basis-point cut in September is widely expected.

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Weekly Outlook: September 15, 2025

Weekly Outlook: September 15, 2025

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After a period of indecision, a clear theme is now emerging across the market: a deliberate and cautious flight to safety. Investor conviction in market-leading assets is beginning to waver, fueling a potential breakout in traditional havens and continuing an established trend of seeking safety in long-term government debt. This week, we examine these three crucial parts of a single, unfolding story.

Conviction in Market Leaders Is Tested

While the long-term story for market leaders remains strong, signs of near-term investor hesitation are becoming clear. Apple is a prime example. The stock’s inability to hold its gains during Friday’s trading, flattening out into the close, shows that conviction is wavering. Our CI Markets forecasts a negative week for the stock, suggesting that this caution is warranted. When a bellwether like Apple shows signs of faltering, it represents the “risk” that investors are cautiously moving away from.

Gold Poised for a Breakout

After a week of consolidation and range-bound trading, gold appears poised for a directional move higher. Our forecast shows a significant upward trend for the precious metal, driven by the same investor caution that is causing hesitation in the equity markets. As conviction in stocks wanes, capital begins to seek traditional havens. This week is set to test whether this rotation is strong enough to fuel a genuine breakout for gold from its recent trading range.

The Deliberate Flight to Treasury Bonds

The downward trend in long-term interest rates is not a new development; it is an ongoing story that CI Markets suggests will continue this week. The forecast for a continued fall in the 30-year Treasury yield (meaning its price will rise) shows that the flight to the safety of government debt is a deliberate and sustained process. This isn’t a sudden panic, but a methodical rotation by investors looking to shield their portfolios from potential economic uncertainty.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is the synchronized, yet nuanced, nature of the market’s risk-off shift. The wavering conviction in a market leader like Apple, the potential breakout in a traditional haven like gold, and the steady, ongoing rotation into long-term bonds all tell the same story from a different angle. Investors are not panicking, but they are deliberately and methodically reducing risk and increasing their allocation to safety.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Weekly Outlook: September 8, 2025

Weekly Outlook: September 8, 2025

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The market is currently navigating without a compass. In the absence of a clear, overarching macro trend, investors are being forced to focus on the specific, and often conflicting, stories of individual companies and sectors. This week, we examine a market being pulled in three different directions, with mega-cap technology thriving, the broader macro environment waiting for a catalyst, and the core US economy showing signs of strain.

A Test for Mega-Cap Tech’s Leadership

While platform forecasts a positive week for Microsoft (MSFT), its weak close on Friday introduces a crucial tension. The stock’s powerful narrative, driven by leadership in enterprise AI and cloud computing, remains a key source of strength. However, the late day selling suggests investors are growing nervous. This sets up a critical test for the week ahead, can the company’s strong fundamental story overcome the market’s hesitation, or is the profit taking a sign of a broader loss of momentum for market leaders.

The Dollar Pauses for Breath

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is forecast to consolidate this week, perfectly capturing the market’s current state of macro uncertainty. After a strong run, the dollar’s pause suggests that investors are in a “wait and see” mode. The market is digesting a mix of economic signals and has no fresh catalyst to justify a major directional move. This period of indecision for the world’s reserve currency is the quiet backdrop against which more dramatic, specific stories are unfolding.

Financials Signal Core Economic Strain

In stark contrast to the optimism surrounding enterprise technology, the US financial sector (XLF) is showing clear signs of stress. Our forecast for this key sector is negative. The weakness in bank stocks points to persistent concerns over slowing loan growth and the compression of net interest margins. This provides a sobering counterpoint to the strength in tech, suggesting that the core US economy is not on the same upward trajectory.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is that broad market averages are telling an incomplete story. The real action is happening beneath the surface, where a powerful divergence is underway. The hesitation in a leader like Microsoft, the pause in the US dollar, and the weakness in the financial sector are not contradictory. They are all symptoms of a market of specifics, where success requires a granular focus on individual strengths and weaknesses rather than a monolithic view.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Weekly Outlook: September 1, 2025

Weekly Outlook: September 1, 2025

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After the euphoria of last week’s dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, a more sober reality is beginning to set in. The market is now shifting its focus from central bank rhetoric to underlying economic and structural fundamentals, and it is finding reasons for concern. This week, we explore the challenges facing the bond market, the persistent weakness in China, and the impact on key sectors of the U.S. economy.

The Bond Market’s Sobering Message

In a clear sign that the market’s story is growing more complex, long term U.S. Treasury bonds are under pressure, with yields forecast to rise. While a dovish Fed should theoretically boost bond prices, the market is now grappling with other powerful forces. A heavy schedule of new government debt issuance is creating a supply glut, while underlying inflation remains stickier than many had hoped. This is a reminder that the path for interest rates is not determined by the Fed alone.

China’s Currency Signals Deeper Troubles

There is no clearer signal of China’s ongoing economic struggles than its currency. Our models forecast a continued upward march for the USDCNY pair, indicating persistent weakness in the Yuan. This is not just a market move. It is a reflection of deep seated problems in China’s property and financial sectors, and a sign that capital is seeking an exit. Beijing appears to be allowing a gradual depreciation to help its exporters, but a weakening currency is a major headwind for global investor confidence.

The Global Slowdown Reaches U.S. Industrials

The fundamental weakness seen abroad is now creating tangible headwinds for the U.S. economy, with the industrial sector looking particularly vulnerable. Our forecast for this key sector is negative. Industrials are highly sensitive to the global business cycle, and the persistent economic malaise in China and Europe is beginning to weigh on new orders and international sales. This serves as a crucial reality check on the durability of last week’s equity rally.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is that fundamentals are reasserting themselves. While last week’s rally was driven by a shift in Fed sentiment, the market is now being forced to confront the less optimistic realities of heavy bond supply and a genuine global growth slowdown. The alignment of these cautious signals from the bond market, foreign exchange, and key equity sectors suggests the path forward may be more challenging than the post Jackson Hole euphoria implied.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Weekly Outlook: August 25, 2025

Weekly Outlook: August 25, 2025

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A surprisingly dovish tone from the Federal Reserve at its Jackson Hole symposium has completely reset the market’s narrative for the weeks ahead. Fears of a “higher for longer” interest rate policy have been replaced by a wave of optimism, unleashing a powerful “risk on” rally. This week, we examine how this new sentiment is lifting the broad market, reigniting growth stocks, and reviving the outlook for the global economy.

The Green Light for Equities

The S&P 500 is set for a strong rally this week as the market celebrates a significant dovish shift from the Federal Reserve. The removal of a key headwind, namely the threat of further rate hikes, has given investors a clear green light to re-engage with equities. Our models show broad based positive momentum, suggesting the bullishness seen on Friday has room to run as investors reposition for a more favorable policy environment.

Growth Stocks Lead the Relief Rally

Nowhere is the relief from the Fed’s dovish pivot felt more acutely than in high growth technology stocks. Our forecast for Snowflake shows particularly strong upward momentum. These long duration assets, whose valuations are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, were under significant pressure in the run up to Jackson Hole. With that pressure now released, they are positioned to lead the market higher as capital rotates back into the growth trade.

Dr. Copper Signals Renewed Optimism

The bullish sentiment is not confined to equities. The price of copper, a key barometer of global economic health, has also inflected to the upside. A dovish Fed is a powerful catalyst for “Dr. Copper” for two reasons. It lowers the probability of a deep, demand crushing recession, and it typically weakens the U.S. dollar. The forecast for rising copper prices suggests the market is now less concerned about a global slowdown.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is the immense power of a Federal Reserve pivot. The shift to a dovish stance has provided a synchronized lift to risk assets across the board. The rally in the broad market, the outperformance of growth stocks, and the renewed strength in industrial commodities all point to a single, powerful conclusion, for the short term, the market’s primary headwind has been removed.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.

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Weekly Outlook: Aug 18, 2025

Weekly Outlook: Aug 18, 2025

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The market is currently suffering from a fractured personality. There is no single, unifying trend. Instead, we are witnessing three distinct investor behaviors play out simultaneously, a flight from risk, a rotation into safety, and a speculative hunt for growth. This week, we examine three assets that perfectly capture this complex and indecisive environment.

The Flight from Chinese Equities

The sharp downward forecast for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index clearly illustrates the “flight from risk” mentality. Investor confidence in Chinese markets is deteriorating rapidly. This pessimism is driven by persistent troubles in China’s property sector and a growing belief that Beijing’s stimulus measures are not enough to restore economic momentum. For global investors, the region is increasingly seen as a source of uncertainty to be avoided.

Investors Seek Shelter in Staples

While investors are selling off international assets, they are not abandoning the market entirely. Instead, many are seeking shelter in defensive sectors, with our models showing stable gains for Consumer Staples. This rotation into companies that sell essential goods like food and household products is a classic defensive move. It shows that investors are prioritizing capital preservation and earnings stability over growth in the face of economic uncertainty.

The Hunt for Growth Tries to Defy the Trend

In stark contrast to the cautious mood, a speculative hunt for growth continues in specific pockets of the market, tech in particular. This is a story driven not by broad economic optimism, but by a powerful narrative centered on artificial intelligence. It shows that a compelling can still attract significant capital, but Tech will continue to face headwinds this week.

Conclusion

The key takeaway this week is that “the market” is not one thing. We are seeing a clear fracture in investor sentiment, leading to a simultaneous retreat from risk, a rotation into safety, and a speculative chase for growth. This lack of a unified direction suggests a period of heightened volatility and underscores the need for a highly selective approach, as broad market trends offer little guidance.

The content presented in this note is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. This analysis is generated from the output of Complete Intelligence’s proprietary artificial intelligence platform and does not constitute a personal recommendation. You should not base any investment decision solely on this material. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Complete Intelligence is not liable for any actions taken based on the information provided herein.