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Podcasts

Conservatives win big majority in UK election

BBC – Business Matters

 

BBC considers the economic and business implications of the Conservatives’ resounding UK election win. The BBC’s Rob Young is in Derby in the English east Midlands to gauge business reaction there. Also in the programme, after months of negotiations, the US and China announce a preliminary trade agreement. The so-called phase one deal will see billions of dollars in tariffs removed or delayed. Mary Lovely, a trade economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington DC, explains the significance of the deal. Plus, Chris Low of FTN Financial in New York sums up how global markets greeted the news. And the BBC’S Deborah Weitzman tells us why Brits are spending more of their hard earned cash on takeaway food, rather than cooking at home.
All this and more discussed with two guests on opposite sides of the Pacific: Tony Nash, chief economist at Complete Intelligence in Houston and Peter Ryan, ABC’s Senior Business Correspondent, in Sydney.

 

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Editorials

Tariffs – ASTRA Toy Times (November 2019 issue)

We were mentioned in the November 2019 issue of ASTRA’s Toy Times. The following excerpt can be found in page 10:

 

The on-again, off-again speculation about new tariffs on Chinese imports has been dizzying. For months, the President’s negotiations with China has had both the stock market, and consumers, in flux.

 

The President recently announced that he was delaying some new tariffs until December 15 in hopes of not disrupting the Christmas shopping season. Although the tariffs have been moved back, make no mistake – they’re still coming. The round of tariffs coming in December will cover $160 billion of imports. The bottom line is, for the first time, President Trump’s trade war with China will likely raise prices directly for U.S. homes on items like clothing, shoes, toys and electronics.

 

Only 18 percent of toys imported from China are being affected right now by tariffs, but that number will soar to 100 percent when the December 15 tariffs hit, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PILE). Starting on December 15, U.S. companies will find that 100 percent of their imports from China, in nearly all product categories, are being targeted by Trump’s tariffs. That’s why many ASTRA toy stores around the country are stocking up on merchandise now to avoid the massive round of tariffs that loom in the coming weeks.

 

“What you’ll likely see is more inventory buildup in the middle, and towards the end of Q4 this year,” said Tony Nash, CEO at Complete Intelligence. Nash is an economist and expert on China who has been frequently featured on CNBC, Yahoo Finance and the BBC. “And then you’ll see imports to the U.S. from China, at least in regards to toys, slow in Q1. Even if the tariffs are lifted, it will still stay slow because the toy importers have already bought what they’re going to buy.”

 

ASTRA and the Toy Association have joined forces with a broad coalition of American businesses and trade organizations. The work continues in Washington to work on trade policy and other issues that impact the toy industry. The ultimate goal of the partnership and coalition is to make sure that voices are heard, business models are understood, and that the economic impact nationwide is recognized.

 

Read the ASTRA Toy Times November 2019 issue here.

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Visual (Videos)

What is Complete Intelligence?

Tony Nash, CEO and founder of Complete Intelligence, explains what the company’s platforms do. This video is produced by Real Vision. For more information, visit our website at https://completeintel.com/

 

Complete Intelligence is an artificial intelligence platform that forecasts assets, currencies, commodities, equity indices, and also does advanced procurement and revenue for corporate clients.

 

What we’re doing is we’re using reinforcement learning, which is effectively a number of neural networks. We use right now about 21 different neural networks to test every single asset.

 

Let’s say you have a bill of material for a mobile phone and you’ve got 7,000 items in that mobile phone. We’re integrating with an ERP system to put all of that data out of the ERP system for that mobile phone and we’re telling that manufacturer exactly how much every element is going to cost them for the next year.

 

If you look at everything as a bill of material, a portfolio is effectively a bill of material. We do the same thing for portfolios. We do the same thing for product revenue forecast.

 

We look at the world as a math problem. It doesn’t matter if it’s gold, or a diode or plastic or crude oil, or Japanese yen. It’s a number that behaves a certain way.

 

And there are anomalies, there are inflections, there are any number of things. But we don’t have any causal conviction on any asset the way it trades. Whether that’s traded through a procurement team, or whether that’s traded through an exchange, it doesn’t really matter to us. We’re looking at the behavior of numbers.

 

We have billions of data items in our platform. We’re running billions of calculations within our platform, and we’re testing more than a million different potential drivers for that element.

 

We’re not enforcing any causality or any driver environment on anything.

 

The underlying hypothesis of what we’re doing is very simple. The world is a closed system. And when we say that to people, they say, “Well, of course it is.” But the way they think of the world doesn’t necessarily align with that.

 

From day one, the way we built our approach, the way we built our platform, all has the underlying assumption that the world is a closed system, and everything is a tradeoff.

Categories
Editorials

Free Trade Ain’t Dead but a New Approach is Needed

27 June 2016 | CNBC

Last week’s Brexit vote by the United Kingdom came as a surprise to many. In a single day of broad democratic participation, the majority of U.K. voters chose to undo 40 years of integration at the heart of the world’s largest trading bloc. Free trade agreements (FTA) have had an impressive run.

 

Over the last 25 years, the value of trade has grown by five times, according to the World Bank. Unfortunately, trade growth has slowed in recent years, with the value of 2015 global trade down 14 percent, according to the CPB World Trade Monitor.

Weak global demand and slowing appetites for trade liberalization are the key factors. While free trade is not dead, the utility of incremental tariff reductions under FTAs is diminishing rapidly.

From a demographic perspective, free trade is evolving to meet political demands for trade “fairness” in the greying developed world as productivity and income growth grind to a halt.

Trade revisionism has dominated recent U.S. politics, to be sure, but the movement is also alive and well in other industrialized countries, particularly in Europe, and has already intensified post the Brexit vote.

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Podcasts

French Presidential Election

Francois Fillon, the candidate of the center-right in the upcoming French presidential election, faces calls to quit after prosecutors widen their investigation into allegations of fraud against the candidate and his wife. We hear from Pierre Briancon from Politico Europe.

 

A clean air scheme which preventing people from using their cars in Mexico City has had no effect on air pollution, according to a recent study. We speak to its author, Dr Lucas Davis of the University of California, Berkeley.

 

Should non-profit organisations like churches be allowed to back political parties or candidates? In America, ever since the Johnson Amendment in 1954, they have been banned from doing so. Now Donald Trump says he wants to change that. Julie Zauzmar, who covers religion for the Washington Post, explains why.

 

And after a week in which President Trump has had some “tough” phone calls with other world leaders, we ask whether getting angry in negotiations ever works. We hear from Henry Evans, co-author of Step Up, Lead in Six Moments that Matter, who also runs the business consultancy Dynamic Results.

 

We’re joined throughout the programme by Tony Nash, chief economist at Complete Intelligence in Singapore, and Diane Brady, a business columnist and author in New York.

 

Listen this story about the French presidential eleciton in BBC World Business Matters